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    All Forums | Systems & Strategies

    Confidence Plays

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    rustie
    Surfer2
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    rustie
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    Posted: Dec. 5, 2021 - 3:34 PM ET #1

    So I have been having some luck with this little "system or strategy" that I will call Confidence Plays , it basically is just taking 2 plays that are highest on Sagarin's site and combining them in a parley and playing them separately. I shall post here and attempt to keep track of things . Bear with me as this is my first attempt at this. Advise ,help, or ignore, just remember we're all trying to do the same thing here.Thanks and good luck.

    There will be some heavy juiced plays and also some nice dogs, we will be using Stoffo's Money Management method which is what Dan Rules used for his successful system, 1x, 2x ,3 x,5x, 8x,12x , I will run this as a 6 game chase. $620 using $20 units. 

    I will use Pinnacle lines and will post early as possible as Sagarins line is static. So with that being said lets give this a go. Also I will be using decimal odds as that is what I am used to , all lines are from Pinnacle as that is the book I use.

     

     

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    To remove first post, remove entire topic.

    So I have been having some luck with this little "system or strategy" that I will call Confidence Plays , it basically is just taking 2 plays that are highest on Sagarin's site and combining them in a parley and playing them separately. I shall post here and attempt to keep track of things . Bear with me as this is my first attempt at this. Advise ,help, or ignore, just remember we're all trying to do the same thing here.Thanks and good luck.

    There will be some heavy juiced plays and also some nice dogs, we will be using Stoffo's Money Management method which is what Dan Rules used for his successful system, 1x, 2x ,3 x,5x, 8x,12x , I will run this as a 6 game chase. $620 using $20 units. 

    I will use Pinnacle lines and will post early as possible as Sagarins line is static. So with that being said lets give this a go. Also I will be using decimal odds as that is what I am used to , all lines are from Pinnacle as that is the book I use.

     

     

     
    rustie
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    Posted: Dec. 5, 2021 - 3:41 PM ET #2

    Sunday Parley: Tbay 2.00 and Edm 1.195 to win $39.80

    Individual plays: Tbay2.00x $20 to win $20

                             Edm 1.495 x $20 to win $9.90

    Good to all clover

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    Sunday Parley: Tbay 2.00 and Edm 1.195 to win $39.80

    Individual plays: Tbay2.00x $20 to win $20

                             Edm 1.495 x $20 to win $9.90

    Good to all clover

     
    rustie
    rustie
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    Posted: Dec. 5, 2021 - 7:12 PM ET #3

    Above should read Edm  1.495 sorry.

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    Above should read Edm  1.495 sorry.

     
    rustie
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    Posted: Dec. 6, 2021 - 11:13 AM ET #4

    So I have decided to break the bankroll up and have a $620 bank for each system and reduce the unit to a $10 play. I will record yesterdays plays as a$20 play but going forward they shall be $10.

    yesterday: Parley Tbay/Edm loss -$20     BR. $600

                     Individual: Tbay win +$20

                                      Edm loss - $20       BR. $620

    Edm now moves to a Gm 2

    BOLclover

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    So I have decided to break the bankroll up and have a $620 bank for each system and reduce the unit to a $10 play. I will record yesterdays plays as a$20 play but going forward they shall be $10.

    yesterday: Parley Tbay/Edm loss -$20     BR. $600

                     Individual: Tbay win +$20

                                      Edm loss - $20       BR. $620

    Edm now moves to a Gm 2

    BOLclover

     
    rustie
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    Posted: Dec. 6, 2021 - 12:53 PM ET #5

    Another amendment : Parleys shall use the Progression 1,2,3,5,8,12 while individual plays will be to win back what was lost plus your unit size. Sorry for so many changes but I'm new at this .

    Todays play: 

    Parley: Gm.2  Dallas/Wash  1.97x $20 to win $19.40

    Alone:  (B) Dallas reg.  1.507x $20 to win $10.14 

               (A) Wash  1.57x $10 to win $5.07

     

     

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    Another amendment : Parleys shall use the Progression 1,2,3,5,8,12 while individual plays will be to win back what was lost plus your unit size. Sorry for so many changes but I'm new at this .

    Todays play: 

    Parley: Gm.2  Dallas/Wash  1.97x $20 to win $19.40

    Alone:  (B) Dallas reg.  1.507x $20 to win $10.14 

               (A) Wash  1.57x $10 to win $5.07

     

     

     
    Surfer2
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    Posted: Dec. 6, 2021 - 1:01 PM ET #6

     

    @rustie

    I'm in. I am only going to do the parlay. With Bovada's odds a $20 bet on Dal only is paying $6.06.

    clover

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    @rustie

    I'm in. I am only going to do the parlay. With Bovada's odds a $20 bet on Dal only is paying $6.06.

    clover

     
    rustie
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    Posted: Dec. 7, 2021 - 9:00 AM ET #7

    @Surfer2

     Hello Surfer and welcome, the Dallas play was in (reg) time so the odds were slightly better. I will do this if I feel the odds are too low to bother with and I feel confident enough to take it in regulation time. It worked out this time an_cheers

     

    yesterday results:Parley Dal/Wash  win 19.40           BR.  619.40

                               Solo  Dallas (reg)  win  10.14         

                                        Wash   win          5.07          BR.   625.07

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    @Surfer2

     Hello Surfer and welcome, the Dallas play was in (reg) time so the odds were slightly better. I will do this if I feel the odds are too low to bother with and I feel confident enough to take it in regulation time. It worked out this time an_cheers

     

    yesterday results:Parley Dal/Wash  win 19.40           BR.  619.40

                               Solo  Dallas (reg)  win  10.14         

                                        Wash   win          5.07          BR.   625.07

     
    Surfer2
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    Posted: Dec. 7, 2021 - 11:54 AM ET #8

    @Rustie

    That was a good win yesterday.  I am awaiting your next post because I don't have the time to learn how to read Saregin's technical jargon. Cheerscool

    Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
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    @Rustie

    That was a good win yesterday.  I am awaiting your next post because I don't have the time to learn how to read Saregin's technical jargon. Cheerscool

     
    rustie
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    Posted: Dec. 7, 2021 - 2:12 PM ET #9

    Tuesday plays:

    Parley  Tbay/Ana   2.70 x $10 to win $17.00

    Solo:   Tbay     1.473 x $10 to win $4.73

              Anaheim   1.840 x $10 to win $8.40

    Good luck to all  clover

     

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    Tuesday plays:

    Parley  Tbay/Ana   2.70 x $10 to win $17.00

    Solo:   Tbay     1.473 x $10 to win $4.73

              Anaheim   1.840 x $10 to win $8.40

    Good luck to all  clover

     

     
    rustie
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    Posted: Dec. 8, 2021 - 9:45 AM ET #10

    Yesterdays results:

    Parley Tbay/Ana  win $17.00         BR. 636.40

                                              

    Solo   Tbay  $4.73                         BR.638.20

             Ana    $8.40

    From now on wagers on solo bets will be to win 1 unit, if it loses next wager will be to win that wager plus 1 unit.

    Be back with picks later. 

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    Yesterdays results:

    Parley Tbay/Ana  win $17.00         BR. 636.40

                                              

    Solo   Tbay  $4.73                         BR.638.20

             Ana    $8.40

    From now on wagers on solo bets will be to win 1 unit, if it loses next wager will be to win that wager plus 1 unit.

    Be back with picks later. 

     
    rustie
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    Posted: Dec. 8, 2021 - 1:23 PM ET #11

    Todays plays:

    Parley  NYR/VEGAS  4.25 x $10 to win 32.50

    Solo     NYR 2.48 x 6.48 to win $10.00

               VEGAS  1.74 x 13.72 to win $10.00

    Good luck all clover

    Bluestar you are correct it is EPCT%.peace_5

     

     

     

     

     

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    Todays plays:

    Parley  NYR/VEGAS  4.25 x $10 to win 32.50

    Solo     NYR 2.48 x 6.48 to win $10.00

               VEGAS  1.74 x 13.72 to win $10.00

    Good luck all clover

    Bluestar you are correct it is EPCT%.peace_5

     

     

     

     

     

     
    rustie
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    Posted: Dec. 9, 2021 - 10:14 AM ET #12

    yesterday result:

    Parley  NYR/VEGAS  LOSS -$10.00    BR: $626.40

    SOLO:  NYR  LOSS  -$6.48

                VEGAS   WIN  $10                BR: $641.72

    BE BACK SHORTLY clover

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    yesterday result:

    Parley  NYR/VEGAS  LOSS -$10.00    BR: $626.40

    SOLO:  NYR  LOSS  -$6.48

                VEGAS   WIN  $10                BR: $641.72

    BE BACK SHORTLY clover

     
    rustie
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    Posted: Dec. 9, 2021 - 10:44 AM ET #13

    PLAYS FOR THURSDAY:

    PARLEY: STL/EDM   2.82 X $20 TO WIN 36.40     CURRENT BR: $626.40

    SOLO:    STL  1.584 X 28.25  TO WIN $16.50

                 EDM  1.781 X $10  TO WIN  $7.81         CURRENT BR: $641.72

    Good luck all clover  

     

     

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    PLAYS FOR THURSDAY:

    PARLEY: STL/EDM   2.82 X $20 TO WIN 36.40     CURRENT BR: $626.40

    SOLO:    STL  1.584 X 28.25  TO WIN $16.50

                 EDM  1.781 X $10  TO WIN  $7.81         CURRENT BR: $641.72

    Good luck all clover  

     

     

     
    rustie
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    Posted: Dec. 10, 2021 - 10:28 AM ET #14

    Thursday results:

    PARLEY: STL/EDM  LOSS -$20        BR: 606.40

    SOLO:    STL  WIN $16.50

                 EDM  LOSS   $10.00         BR: 648.22

    BE BACK IN A FEW WITH TODAYS PLAYS 

    Rust never sleeps
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    Thursday results:

    PARLEY: STL/EDM  LOSS -$20        BR: 606.40

    SOLO:    STL  WIN $16.50

                 EDM  LOSS   $10.00         BR: 648.22

    BE BACK IN A FEW WITH TODAYS PLAYS 

     
    rustie
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    Posted: Dec. 10, 2021 - 11:17 AM ET #15

    FRIDAYS PLAYS:

    PARLEY:  FLA (REG)/NYR  2.36 X $30 TO WIN  $40.80     CURRENT BR:$606.40

    SOLO:     FLA (REG)    1.534 X $10  TO WIN  $$5.34

                   NYR     1.54 X $37.04 TO WIN $20.00             CURRENT BR: $648.22

    BEST OF LUCK TODAY ALL clover

     

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    FRIDAYS PLAYS:

    PARLEY:  FLA (REG)/NYR  2.36 X $30 TO WIN  $40.80     CURRENT BR:$606.40

    SOLO:     FLA (REG)    1.534 X $10  TO WIN  $$5.34

                   NYR     1.54 X $37.04 TO WIN $20.00             CURRENT BR: $648.22

    BEST OF LUCK TODAY ALL clover

     

     
    rustie
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    Posted: Dec. 11, 2021 - 9:48 AM ET #16

    FRIDAY RESULTS:

    PARLEY: FLA (REG)/NYR   WIN  $40.80      CURRENT BR.  647.20

    SOLO:  FLA (REG)   WIN   5.34

               NYR  WIN  20.00                           CURRENT BR:  673.56

    BE BACK SHORTLY 

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    FRIDAY RESULTS:

    PARLEY: FLA (REG)/NYR   WIN  $40.80      CURRENT BR.  647.20

    SOLO:  FLA (REG)   WIN   5.34

               NYR  WIN  20.00                           CURRENT BR:  673.56

    BE BACK SHORTLY 

     
    rustie
    rustie
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    Posted: Dec. 11, 2021 - 11:07 AM ET #17

    SAT. PLAYS:

    PARLEY: STL/TBAY  2.15 X 10 TO WIN 11.50     CURRENT BR:647.20       +27.20

    SOLO:    STL  1.438 X 10 TO WIN  4.38

                 TBAY  1.50 X 10 TO WIN  5.00             CURRENT BR: 673.56      +53.56

    BEST OF LUCK TO ALL clover

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    SAT. PLAYS:

    PARLEY: STL/TBAY  2.15 X 10 TO WIN 11.50     CURRENT BR:647.20       +27.20

    SOLO:    STL  1.438 X 10 TO WIN  4.38

                 TBAY  1.50 X 10 TO WIN  5.00             CURRENT BR: 673.56      +53.56

    BEST OF LUCK TO ALL clover

     
    rustie
    rustie
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    Posted: Dec. 12, 2021 - 8:30 AM ET #18

    Sat results:

    Parley: Stl/Tbay   loss   -$10.00        BR. 637.20        +17.20

    Solo:   Stl    win    + 4.38

              Tbay  loss   -10.00                 BR. 667.94        +47.94

    Be back shortly.

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    Sat results:

    Parley: Stl/Tbay   loss   -$10.00        BR. 637.20        +17.20

    Solo:   Stl    win    + 4.38

              Tbay  loss   -10.00                 BR. 667.94        +47.94

    Be back shortly.

     
    rustie
    rustie
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    Posted: Dec. 12, 2021 - 9:27 AM ET #19

    SUNDAY PLAYS:

    PARLEY:NYR/FLA    3.93 X 20 TO WIN 58.60      CURRENT BR: 637.20

    SOLO:   NYR   1.74 X 13.51 TO WIN 10.00

                FLA     2.26 X 15.87 TO WIN  20.00               CURRENT BR: 667.94

    GOOD LUCK clover

     

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    SUNDAY PLAYS:

    PARLEY:NYR/FLA    3.93 X 20 TO WIN 58.60      CURRENT BR: 637.20

    SOLO:   NYR   1.74 X 13.51 TO WIN 10.00

                FLA     2.26 X 15.87 TO WIN  20.00               CURRENT BR: 667.94

    GOOD LUCK clover

     

     
    rustie
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    Posted: Dec. 12, 2021 - 12:06 PM ET #20

    If 2 teams are tied I will usually just try to handicap it. Stl played last night, Fla did not, and I like getting the better odds on Fla.

    Bob in goal vs probably Grubauer I feel that is also a advantage . Just my way of doing things. 

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    If 2 teams are tied I will usually just try to handicap it. Stl played last night, Fla did not, and I like getting the better odds on Fla.

    Bob in goal vs probably Grubauer I feel that is also a advantage . Just my way of doing things. 

     
    rustie
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    Posted: Dec. 13, 2021 - 1:13 PM ET #21

    Also to your point Bluestar to my way of thinking he says EPCT% 66% which translates to odds of 1.50  so to get odds of 2.26 on Florida is a bonus and almost paid off.

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    Also to your point Bluestar to my way of thinking he says EPCT% 66% which translates to odds of 1.50  so to get odds of 2.26 on Florida is a bonus and almost paid off.

     
    rustie
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    Posted: Dec. 13, 2021 - 1:25 PM ET #22

    NO PLAYS TODAY (Thanks Buttman).  UPDATED RECORD:

    SUN PLAYS: 

    PARLEY:  NYR/FLA  LOSS  -$20.00   BR:617.20

    SOLO:NYR  LOSS  -$13.51

             FLA   LOSS  -$15.87              BR:638.56

     

     

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    NO PLAYS TODAY (Thanks Buttman).  UPDATED RECORD:

    SUN PLAYS: 

    PARLEY:  NYR/FLA  LOSS  -$20.00   BR:617.20

    SOLO:NYR  LOSS  -$13.51

             FLA   LOSS  -$15.87              BR:638.56

     

     

     
    rustie
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    Posted: Dec. 14, 2021 - 9:52 AM ET #23

    TUESDAY PLAYS:

    PARLEY: FLA/PITT 2.08 X 30 TO WIN 32.40               BR:617.20

    SOLO: FLA  1.332 X 69.07 TO WIN 25.90

              PITT (REG)  1.561 X 41.89 TO WIN 23.50       BR:638.56

    GOOD LUCK TODAY FOLKS clover

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    TUESDAY PLAYS:

    PARLEY: FLA/PITT 2.08 X 30 TO WIN 32.40               BR:617.20

    SOLO: FLA  1.332 X 69.07 TO WIN 25.90

              PITT (REG)  1.561 X 41.89 TO WIN 23.50       BR:638.56

    GOOD LUCK TODAY FOLKS clover

     
    rustie
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    Posted: Dec. 15, 2021 - 9:59 AM ET #24

    TUES. RESULTS:

    PARLEY: FLA/PITT  LOSS   -30.00     BR: 587.20     -32.80

    SOLO:   FLA    LOSS   -69.07           

                PITT   WIN   +23.50            BR: 592.99     -27.01

     

     

     

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    TUES. RESULTS:

    PARLEY: FLA/PITT  LOSS   -30.00     BR: 587.20     -32.80

    SOLO:   FLA    LOSS   -69.07           

                PITT   WIN   +23.50            BR: 592.99     -27.01

     

     

     

     
     
    rustie
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    Posted: Dec. 15, 2021 - 10:08 AM ET #25

    WED.PLAYS:

    PARLEY:   NYR/ANA   2.40 X $50.00 TO WIN $70.00     CURRENT BR: 587.20

     

    SOLO:   NYR  1.44 X $180.00  TO WIN $79.20             CURRENT BR: 592.99

                ANA 1.666 X 15 TO WIN  $ 9.99

    GOOD LUCK ALL clover

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    WED.PLAYS:

    PARLEY:   NYR/ANA   2.40 X $50.00 TO WIN $70.00     CURRENT BR: 587.20

     

    SOLO:   NYR  1.44 X $180.00  TO WIN $79.20             CURRENT BR: 592.99

                ANA 1.666 X 15 TO WIN  $ 9.99

    GOOD LUCK ALL clover

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