Posted:
#1
I want this thread to be different; I want this thread to be a project. I also want this thread to be as straightforward as possible and easy to understand for any one who wishes to follow.
In gambling the two things a successful gambler needs is to know the 'edge' that he has on the game/bet, and then how to implement a money management system which will optimize the return of the bets. The second part, the money management, stems from being able to calculate your 'edge' in a bet. Therefore a better should strive to try and find the exact edge that he has, although this is an imperfect science as no one will ever be able to truly find the exact edge on each game. But quantifying edge is absolutely essential for optimal growth.
I have stumbled upon a predictive system that gives all the numbers necessary to calculate an edge between the predictions and the lines, such as standard deviation on each bet. Obviously this predictive system isn't perfect, but I will make according adjustments which leads me into my next part.
Because I have the necessary numbers to calculate 'edge' I will implement a Kelly betting system, which when used correctly is the best money management system possible because it optimizes bankroll growth. For anyone who has used/studied/read up on the Kelly system they know that unless you are absolutely certain of your exact edge on a bet (like a dice game, or lottery, etc) a full Kelly unit should not be bet. I won't get into the system much, but it is much safer, less riskier, to wager a fraction of the Kelly percentage. On this thread and for the time being until I decide otherwise, I am going to go even lower than the fractional suggestion and use 25% for my posts.
For the time being I will post plays on NCAAF - only on games where the teams have played 6 or more games, which is enough to give a good read on the season.. the NFL - same thing as college, only on games where both teams have played at least 6 games, so after next week.... the NBA and NCAAB once they start up and the season is far enough in... possibly NHL, still deciding on whether the system works well for the NHL.
Sorry this was very long, but I wanted to lay everything on the table as early as possible. I will start with a hypothetical bankroll of $1,000, so my success or failure can be easily be measured in terms of %'s in relation to my start.
In gambling the two things a successful gambler needs is to know the 'edge' that he has on the game/bet, and then how to implement a money management system which will optimize the return of the bets. The second part, the money management, stems from being able to calculate your 'edge' in a bet. Therefore a better should strive to try and find the exact edge that he has, although this is an imperfect science as no one will ever be able to truly find the exact edge on each game. But quantifying edge is absolutely essential for optimal growth.
I have stumbled upon a predictive system that gives all the numbers necessary to calculate an edge between the predictions and the lines, such as standard deviation on each bet. Obviously this predictive system isn't perfect, but I will make according adjustments which leads me into my next part.
Because I have the necessary numbers to calculate 'edge' I will implement a Kelly betting system, which when used correctly is the best money management system possible because it optimizes bankroll growth. For anyone who has used/studied/read up on the Kelly system they know that unless you are absolutely certain of your exact edge on a bet (like a dice game, or lottery, etc) a full Kelly unit should not be bet. I won't get into the system much, but it is much safer, less riskier, to wager a fraction of the Kelly percentage. On this thread and for the time being until I decide otherwise, I am going to go even lower than the fractional suggestion and use 25% for my posts.
For the time being I will post plays on NCAAF - only on games where the teams have played 6 or more games, which is enough to give a good read on the season.. the NFL - same thing as college, only on games where both teams have played at least 6 games, so after next week.... the NBA and NCAAB once they start up and the season is far enough in... possibly NHL, still deciding on whether the system works well for the NHL.
Sorry this was very long, but I wanted to lay everything on the table as early as possible. I will start with a hypothetical bankroll of $1,000, so my success or failure can be easily be measured in terms of %'s in relation to my start.
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too smart for me! Keep it going. I like some of the plays for saturday btw.
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