Posted:
#1
I've been working with the SDQL again for MLB and made what I hope are improvements on what I've had in years past. Instead of using year long systems, this year I'm tailoring each query to the specific month, starting pitcher, or home plate umpire.
For example:
month = 4 and D and 2 < pp:SHRA + p:SHRA < 5 and pp:BPRA + p:BPRA < 6 and rest < 2 and -5 < streak < 6 and -9 < site streak < 8 and 40 < WP < 61
Dogs in the month of April whose starters gave up either 3 or 4 home runs the past 2 games, and whose bullpens allowed less than 6 runs the last 2 games, who haven't lost more than 4 in a row or won more than 5 in a row, or lost more than 8 in a row on the road/at home or won more than 7 on the road/at home, and have a winning percentage between 40% and 61%. That's a mouthful, but the results since 2004 are a 103-66 record on an average moneyline of +129 for an ROI of 39.5%. Last season these games were 10-8.
These tweaks will limit the number of plays I make and hopefully reduce some of the volatility I've seen in years past. I'll be posting more of my queries in this thread leading up to the baseball season starting. I wish everyone the best of luck this season. We're all on the same team, after all.
For example:
month = 4 and D and 2 < pp:SHRA + p:SHRA < 5 and pp:BPRA + p:BPRA < 6 and rest < 2 and -5 < streak < 6 and -9 < site streak < 8 and 40 < WP < 61
Dogs in the month of April whose starters gave up either 3 or 4 home runs the past 2 games, and whose bullpens allowed less than 6 runs the last 2 games, who haven't lost more than 4 in a row or won more than 5 in a row, or lost more than 8 in a row on the road/at home or won more than 7 on the road/at home, and have a winning percentage between 40% and 61%. That's a mouthful, but the results since 2004 are a 103-66 record on an average moneyline of +129 for an ROI of 39.5%. Last season these games were 10-8.
These tweaks will limit the number of plays I make and hopefully reduce some of the volatility I've seen in years past. I'll be posting more of my queries in this thread leading up to the baseball season starting. I wish everyone the best of luck this season. We're all on the same team, after all.
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