Using your system, here's what I come up with for tonight:
SF@ ARI
O/U 43 (Pinny has it at 41.5) - No Play, too close
SF -4.5 (Pinny has them at -1.5) - Worth the play, getting 3 pts
[Quote: Originally Posted by verizonsam]
i got the same numbers too, but based shouldn't it be since sf should be -4.5, but is actually -1.5, that it's a fishy line and you take arizona? confused a bit
I'm just going by the numbers.
If you use this system on next weeks games there are a quie a few differences:
Cle @ Mia (-4.5) comes up Cle -0.6
Chi (-3.5) @ Det comes up Chi -6.7
Den @ KC (-7) comes up KC -11.5
Buf @ Min (-6.5) comes up Min -1.5
NO (-7) @ Cin comes up NO -11.9
Atl (-3) @ TB comes up Atl -6.5
Pit @ Bal (-3) comes up Pit -1
NYJ @ NE (-3.5) comes up NYJ -0.8
I'm just going by the numbers.
If you use this system on next weeks games there are a quie a few differences:
Cle @ Mia (-4.5) comes up Cle -0.6
Chi (-3.5) @ Det comes up Chi -6.7
Den @ KC (-7) comes up KC -11.5
Buf @ Min (-6.5) comes up Min -1.5
NO (-7) @ Cin comes up NO -11.9
Atl (-3) @ TB comes up Atl -6.5
Pit @ Bal (-3) comes up Pit -1
NYJ @ NE (-3.5) comes up NYJ -0.8
OK PEOPLE i'm really bad at typing it's hard to explain for me to transfer the way i was i taught to do this simple shit but it works !
lets make it simple ok !
COLTS - 3 vs Chargers
PF 268 COLTS PA 216 PF 274 CHARGERS PA 211
+52 pts ---------------------------------------- +63 pts
really showing broken down here
63- 52 = 11 divide by 10 games = 1.1 pts
COLTS are +5.2 pts per game Chargers are +6.3 pts Pergame
6.3 - 5.2 = +1.1 pts TO Chargers
NOW subtract 3 pt spread FROM colts and add it TI Carhgers
5.2 - 3 = +2.2 6.3 +3 = 9.3
9.3 - 2.2 = +7.1 pts for chargers
um wrong team favored here as YOU see the pick differnce is chargers +1.1
spread is OFF 6 points
another thing when you have the better offense and defense taking points YOU bet them and YOU almost Guaranteed a WINNER 100% of the time
WE all know that the Chargers give manning fits he has worst performance vs SD than all the other teams combined
plus without a running game Colts are very easy to beat one dimensional
i hate to say this but neither of these teams will be represented at the superbowl !
YOU only possible superbowl teams are
Steelers JETS Saints Eagles PACKERS
Saints strongest edge this year even betterthan last year when they averged 45 yds more offense per 16 games in season
this year they are averaging 78.4 more yds of offense with a better defense
but problem right now is they are -3 in turnovers !
Steelers NEED to average at laest 48 yds more than thier opponents in reamaing 5 games they are below the needed 35 yds for superbowl champions sitting at only +29.9 yds more than all opponents through 11 games
THIS is known as super bowl frauds
last year Colts averaged only about 25 yds more than all opponents Saints avg. 45 yds more than all opponents
I had posted in systems before BUT it axed !
some jo said how many more BS systems you have with a thumbs down thingy
i never replied it got waxed !
OK OTHER CONTENDERS are Eagles +82.7 yds more tahn all opponents with +11 in turnovers same as steelers
JETS are at + 64.7 yds more than others +7 in turnovers
Packers ar weak +33.2 yds than all opponents + 7 in turnovers
Patriots NO FUCKING WAY IN HELL
they are in the red - 50 yds per game out gained in 7 games only small pluses in 4 games
strange aint it even thanksgiving day LIONS out gained them in a Blowout
they are + 11 in turnovers BUT now you see why they are burning YOUR money as chalks
THIS is NOT the OLD patriots defense that was situtional D they had two guys in each spot both in postion to stop you from converting 3rd and 5
WAS a differnt defense than all other teams used BILL Bellicick design
BUT all those great defenders are Gone now they went young
so it's a process developing the youth !
SO VERY POSSIBLE SUPER BOWL MATCHUPS are
Saints vs steelers
Eagles VS Steelers
Steelers VS Packers
Saints vs Jets
Saints Vs Packers
Eagles Vs Jets
Packers Vs Jets
IF any other AFC teams get in besides JETS or Steelers
IT will be a blow out of major proprtions on the NFC side
Packers vs Jets or Steelers will be low scoring under the 40's
Sanits vs either also will be low scoring under thye 40's
NO wait i forgot Dallas is dome
wash that out !
depends on how much they score in playoffs
BUT Thats it
as far as games what i come up with after sit down with my friends i'll post in game sections
again i remind YOU all i'm a female not a GUY and wager small
$25 - $50 at most $200 on one game
Ravens vs Panthers i unloded on
got a lil scared when panthers put up 13 points but for sure two more picks came in and sealed the win !
ty for compliments guys about my avatar but i will not tell who the girl errrr lady is in my avatar . YOU will not find her pic anywhere online unless someone got it from somwhere else !
Thats all i will tell you because of my occupation my real name is nowhere online !
AS far as NBA i will tell you one absoulte mortal LOCK every year
BET aginst the def champs in that home oponer
they never ever cover the spread !
There is a reason and cause and effect for these systems that keep them solid every year !
REASON NBA champs do not cover all the pre game celebration hositing the banner and trophy removes the Crowd emotions and team also is on a high
Cause is meltdown and the DOG team of courseplays hard EFFECT is a squeak win that is not even close to the spread this year the ROCKETS were a 7.5 DOG lakers never had the lead and finally won by 2 points !
NBA is differnt animal than NFL YOU use PF and PA of 5 home games vs 5 road games of BOTH teams
Do same math as shown in nfl add and subtract the spread from chalk add it to the dog and see if it's corect as compared to the pickem results
also if either team is playing 3 games in 4 nights on a B 2 B or 4 in 5 nights on a B 2 B fade them dog or favorite if an older team vs rested teams
the SPURS are noted real bad traveling on any unrested games thier 2nd game of a B 2 B they just never cover any spread !Totals also YOU need to see how teams play if they are BOTH heavy on Defensive side YOUR going to see a lot of UNDERS teams that play all offense like the suns do with no defense will cause OVERS more than anything
SUNS should be faded as a chalk vs almsot any team they are old at every position NO laed is safe with them i seen them blow 30 point leads in the 3rd qtr many times !
Another thing to beware of teams playing on B 2 B going UP to denver from lower alttude or Coming down from denver are really bad bets vs a rested team
THE HUMAN BODY cannot adjust within 24 hrs from that thin air high to low altitude !
Thats why many teams fold up and die in 2nd halfs at DENVER because of weak bench and cannot give starters rest to drink plenty of fluids !NBA is a differnt Animal than NFL but emotion runs true in both sports many teams will play soft at home before a home game vs biggest rival or confernce rival !
I seen it happen Blazers at HOME before a home game vs Lakers
huge chalk 15 points vs Timberwolves boy where they flat played the C game to win by 1 POINT
ok lakers the def champs come in as a 2.5 chalk !IT is known one place Lakers NEVER can win at is in BLazers house wire to wire demolition of Lakers Blazers won by 20 points !
Another thing to beware of is when any team wins a game by 21 points or more and is off two nights or even one night almost every team falls ATS the spread !
I rember one game The BULLS hammered the heat to win by 31 points BULLS were at Home
next Night BULLS coalpsed as a huge fav of 8 points Heat went home and exploded over the other team as a small dog !ITs margin of Victory when teams score way over than they NEED to !
one game i saw earlier this yr belive the Magic won by 42 points as an 18.5 chalk this was 2nd explosion from them vs poor teams next game home vs a 2-2 decent team The NETS i think it was and check this spread out only a 16.5 at HOME !without handicapping i took the NETS and sure enough the magick won by 15 points !
easy $50 !
ALSO another thing to do is Chart last 5 games of both teams
A.T.S. just draw a line on a page thats lined like school note books each line is 5 points see where teams are headed is one team peaked out at plus 30 points and the other team is is just below the 0 line say like - 2 ATS headed up ready to bust through positive side !
Take that team to cover the spread !
COVERS is Great to use on teams margin of points won
A T S they show it in colors and with a NEGATIVE sign or PLUS sign next to the number !
YOU want the last 5 consectuive games when making the charts !
NOT only the the last 5 games at home or Road the charts will be skewered !
Kinda like looks like an EKG chart when YOUR Done
a 100% sure shot when you have two teams headed in opposite direction lets say favored home won three games
+ 10 points ATS + 15 points ATS then a lil dip to + 12 points ATS The DOG team lost 3 games in a row - 25 points ATS - 15 points ATS then - 3 points ATS
this is what they mean by TWO teams headed in OPPOSITE Directions the team headed up crosses over the 0 line and wins your wager the favorite will fall below the zero line !
LATERS !
ty for compliments guys about my avatar but i will not tell who the girl errrr lady is in my avatar . YOU will not find her pic anywhere online unless someone got it from somwhere else !
Thats all i will tell you because of my occupation my real name is nowhere online !
AS far as NBA i will tell you one absoulte mortal LOCK every year
BET aginst the def champs in that home oponer
they never ever cover the spread !
There is a reason and cause and effect for these systems that keep them solid every year !
REASON NBA champs do not cover all the pre game celebration hositing the banner and trophy removes the Crowd emotions and team also is on a high
Cause is meltdown and the DOG team of courseplays hard EFFECT is a squeak win that is not even close to the spread this year the ROCKETS were a 7.5 DOG lakers never had the lead and finally won by 2 points !
NBA is differnt animal than NFL YOU use PF and PA of 5 home games vs 5 road games of BOTH teams
Do same math as shown in nfl add and subtract the spread from chalk add it to the dog and see if it's corect as compared to the pickem results
also if either team is playing 3 games in 4 nights on a B 2 B or 4 in 5 nights on a B 2 B fade them dog or favorite if an older team vs rested teams
the SPURS are noted real bad traveling on any unrested games thier 2nd game of a B 2 B they just never cover any spread !Totals also YOU need to see how teams play if they are BOTH heavy on Defensive side YOUR going to see a lot of UNDERS teams that play all offense like the suns do with no defense will cause OVERS more than anything
SUNS should be faded as a chalk vs almsot any team they are old at every position NO laed is safe with them i seen them blow 30 point leads in the 3rd qtr many times !
Another thing to beware of teams playing on B 2 B going UP to denver from lower alttude or Coming down from denver are really bad bets vs a rested team
THE HUMAN BODY cannot adjust within 24 hrs from that thin air high to low altitude !
Thats why many teams fold up and die in 2nd halfs at DENVER because of weak bench and cannot give starters rest to drink plenty of fluids !NBA is a differnt Animal than NFL but emotion runs true in both sports many teams will play soft at home before a home game vs biggest rival or confernce rival !
I seen it happen Blazers at HOME before a home game vs Lakers
huge chalk 15 points vs Timberwolves boy where they flat played the C game to win by 1 POINT
ok lakers the def champs come in as a 2.5 chalk !IT is known one place Lakers NEVER can win at is in BLazers house wire to wire demolition of Lakers Blazers won by 20 points !
Another thing to beware of is when any team wins a game by 21 points or more and is off two nights or even one night almost every team falls ATS the spread !
I rember one game The BULLS hammered the heat to win by 31 points BULLS were at Home
next Night BULLS coalpsed as a huge fav of 8 points Heat went home and exploded over the other team as a small dog !ITs margin of Victory when teams score way over than they NEED to !
one game i saw earlier this yr belive the Magic won by 42 points as an 18.5 chalk this was 2nd explosion from them vs poor teams next game home vs a 2-2 decent team The NETS i think it was and check this spread out only a 16.5 at HOME !without handicapping i took the NETS and sure enough the magick won by 15 points !
easy $50 !
ALSO another thing to do is Chart last 5 games of both teams
A.T.S. just draw a line on a page thats lined like school note books each line is 5 points see where teams are headed is one team peaked out at plus 30 points and the other team is is just below the 0 line say like - 2 ATS headed up ready to bust through positive side !
Take that team to cover the spread !
COVERS is Great to use on teams margin of points won
A T S they show it in colors and with a NEGATIVE sign or PLUS sign next to the number !
YOU want the last 5 consectuive games when making the charts !
NOT only the the last 5 games at home or Road the charts will be skewered !
Kinda like looks like an EKG chart when YOUR Done
a 100% sure shot when you have two teams headed in opposite direction lets say favored home won three games
+ 10 points ATS + 15 points ATS then a lil dip to + 12 points ATS The DOG team lost 3 games in a row - 25 points ATS - 15 points ATS then - 3 points ATS
this is what they mean by TWO teams headed in OPPOSITE Directions the team headed up crosses over the 0 line and wins your wager the favorite will fall below the zero line !
LATERS !
wow 
you are good .
OK tonight i took TWO DOGS
one was Pistons at +11 the other was 76ers +3.5
really was screwy that Blazers were favored at 76ers
all i looked at and saw was that blazers lost to the NETS the same team 76ers just beat and acoording to covers blazers were missing two players OUT with injury this game !
I still handicapped the game as a pickem blazers were - 1 maiking them a favorite of 3.5 they went to - 2 POINTS
RESULT as i expected a LOW scoring game 76ers blasted them 88-79 24.5 points UNDER the posted total of 191.5 i came up with a toatl of possible 197.4 so it was too easy to go overs i gueesed UNDERS
PISTONS +11 pushed but again i saw a low scoring game 192 was posted i came up with 195.4 but saw most of pistons road games were in 165 range final was Magic 90 pistons 79 if i wated an hr later the spread went up to 11.5 and it covers !
DO the math yourself using both lines 11 and 11.5 YOU will SEE the diference
Magic was PF 515 PA 466 Pistons were PF 478 PA 495
FUCKING amazing when YOU see the differnce that YOU know the HOOK Plays !
Laters all i'm going out for a drink !
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