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IRAGE ODDS BUSTER STRATEGY

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Posted: #301
Hey, this systemis working great. No complaints here, two and oh tonight with Was and TB.

  Thanks
 
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Posted: #302
I was the yanks with ya - irage - thanks
 
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Posted: #303

Irage

is TEX a play if SF stays at -110 or lower?  And is BAL a play if PHI goes down to -110?

PLus BAL is a RPI play - so are you gonna take them regardless?

 
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Posted: #304
wondering the same thing...what about the red sox?
 
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Posted: #305

Quote Originally Posted by riceman003:

wondering the same thing...what about the red sox?

So here is what I did......

TEX ended up being a play

BAL ended up being a play (plus they are an RPI play - so we got that going for us :)

BOS ended up being a play after the game started - it was really close.  I took WAS - on another angle

TB could be a play if MIA line moves in our favor.

 

So i'm on 2 of them so far - maybe TB later

 
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Posted: #306
Quote Originally Posted by DegenGamble:

So here is what I did......

TEX ended up being a play

BAL ended up being a play (plus they are an RPI play - so we got that going for us :)

BOS ended up being a play after the game started - it was really close.  I took WAS - on another angle

TB could be a play if MIA line moves in our favor.

 

So i'm on 2 of them so far - maybe TB later

 

Of course this is just me - Irage hasn't posted any official plays

 
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Posted: #307
same i took TEX and BAL. BAL was too good to pass up being an RPI play and a play from this system.

I was able to get BOS in right before the game cause when i looked at it it passed the filter -101/-109
 
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Posted: #308
Love this system.  We find out what the plays were after they happen.  Amazing.
 
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Posted: #309
Its NOT a system - it's a strategy.

He already told you what HIS strategy is a doZen times throughout this thread.


It's apparent he (irage) doesn't upkeep his thread like most do. Again, it's a strategy and not a system. He unveiled his strategy.

Save it to your shit. And play when appropriate.
 
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Posted: #310
Quote Originally Posted by CannedGoods:

Love this system.  We find out what the plays were after they happen.  Amazing.


All you do is bitch huh? He gave the guidelines out like 50 times. Use your brain and make the picks. irage said multiple times he does not just look at odds, he looks at pitching, line-ups, etc. If all are met he pulls the trigger.

I don't see how you could back Feldman or Matsuzaka, ones playing like shit, the other hasn't pitched in the MLB in a year.
 
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Posted: #311
So I know there were no official plays by Irage but if we went by the strategy - it went 2-1. BOS was not a play until game time and I checked 1 min prior.
 
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Posted: #312
Quote Originally Posted by peter1988:



All you do is bitch huh? He gave the guidelines out like 50 times. Use your brain and make the picks. irage said multiple times he does not just look at odds, he looks at pitching, line-ups, etc. If all are met he pulls the trigger.

I don't see how you could back Feldman or Matsuzaka, ones playing like shit, the other hasn't pitched in the MLB in a year.



 
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Posted: #313
Sorry about yesterday guys. My internet went out on Friday night and I just got it back yesterday.

How did we do yesterday.

Baltimore was a winner with a -101 at close.
Texas was a loser at -102 at close.
Boston was a loser at 100 at close.
Tampa Bay was a winner at 102 at close.

Which of these games did odds change after the game?

Today we have Atlanta, but they are playing for a sweep. So unless Toronto becomes the DOG it's a no play.

Indians look to be a play.

Dodgers look like a play.

 
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Posted: #314
Well I was looking at the BOS game right up till game time - and due to the WAS odds the game did not qualify - but right after the game started or milli-seconds before - the WAS odds changed and made BOS the play.

I didn't take em - but took the others
 
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Posted: #315
Nice, thanks for the update. I have been trying to watch the lines and if the DOG suddenly switches before game time, I either pass or stick with the original.

This makes it really hard to quantify.
 
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Posted: #316
I think you still have a good angle irage...in theory you put your money where the sharp money is going. Sharp money is going on the dog and that drives the line down - I think
 
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Posted: #317

By the Irage - I took a look at the site you posted - teamrankings.com and thanks for that - good info there.  One thing I did notice is I looked at their record for both Game Winner and Money Line picks.  So for all of there 2011 picks they picked Game Winner away favorites at close to 60% and Money Line Picks Away Favorites at 64.7%.  Now what I did is take a look at there picks for the last 21 days (unfortunately that's the farthest back you can pull individual picks) and just looked at away favorites for both Game Winer picks and Money Line picks.  There money line picks were 100% and their Game Winner picks were around 58%......but then I took out plays that would have qualified for your system - so you would have bet the DOG in that circumstance and it jumped to 63%

I don't know how to backtest individual picks farther than 21 days back - AND I don't know what other filters can be applied to bring the 63% up to 70% but it's an interesting angle - and works nicely with your system.

Just a thought.....

 
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Posted: #318
They have interesting stats for sure. Check out the "Prediction Accuracy" section for each model.

Decision Tree
Away Favorites - 0-3% is hitting over 78%

TR Picks
Away Favorites - 2 Star Picks is hitting over 76%
RL Picks - Home Underdogs - 1 star - is right around 69%

I haven't tried to play any of these plays yet, but I've found them fascinating.
 
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Posted: #319

Quote Originally Posted by irage:

They have interesting stats for sure. Check out the "Prediction Accuracy" section for each model.

Decision Tree
Away Favorites - 0-3% is hitting over 78%

TR Picks
Away Favorites - 2 Star Picks is hitting over 76%
RL Picks - Home Underdogs - 1 star - is right around 69%

I haven't tried to play any of these plays yet, but I've found them fascinating.

Interesting indeed - I already pull the team rankings data into a spreadsheet - just the Game Winner Picks data and the Money Line picks data....maybe filter the away favorite picks that I already have with only if Decision Tree agrees.....

I bet the Game Winner picks away favorites only on Friday and Saturday - 1-1 on Friday but 4-0 yesterday.

Interesting indeed...........

 
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Posted: #320
THE DOG AND PONY SHOW!
1. No bet if the line is higher than -110 for either team.
Some exceptions made for -111, but I'll review as needed.
2. Wait for the line movements to stop, some times moves happen up to 2-3 minutes before game time.
3. Take the DOG
4. Avoid games where the DOG is going to sweep a series.

6/3 - Phillies - LOSS
6/3 - Brewers - LOSS
6/3 - Rangers - WIN
6/3 - Cardinals - LOSS
6/5 - Toronto - WIN
6/5 - Padres - WIN
6/8 - Washington - WIN
6/8 - Tampa Bay - WIN
Pulling the Trigger on Cleveland
6/10 - Cleveland - PENDING
 
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Posted: #321
Quote Originally Posted by DegenGamble:

Interesting indeed - I already pull the team rankings data into a spreadsheet - just the Game Winner Picks data and the Money Line picks data....maybe filter the away favorite picks that I already have with only if Decision Tree agrees.....

I bet the Game Winner picks away favorites only on Friday and Saturday - 1-1 on Friday but 4-0 yesterday.

Interesting indeed...........



Very cool, run with it. I hope you find a significant pattern. Are you going to post you picks and findings?
 
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Posted: #322
hey irage are the dodgers a play?
 
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Posted: #323

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Posted: 6/10/2012 11:55:54 AM
THE DOG AND PONY SHOW!
1. No bet if the line is higher than -110 for either team.
Some exceptions made for -111, but I'll review as needed.
2. Wait for the line movements to stop, some times moves happen up to 2-3 minutes before game time.
3. Take the DOG
4. Avoid games where the DOG is going to sweep a series.

6/3 - Phillies - LOSS
6/3 - Brewers - LOSS
6/3 - Rangers - WIN
6/3 - Cardinals - LOSS
6/5 - Toronto - WIN
6/5 - Padres - WIN
6/8 - Washington - WIN
6/8 - Tampa Bay - WIN
Pulling the Trigger on Cleveland
6/10 - Cleveland - PENDING
6/10 - Dodgers - PENDING
 
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Posted: #324

Quote Originally Posted by irage:



Very cool, run with it. I hope you find a significant pattern. Are you going to post you picks and findings?

I have no problem adding road favorite picks from Team Rankings it to the spreadsheet I did for your system....in fact - I already did it  - shared it on google docs - download from here.  road favorite plays that qualify, BUT don't fall into your system are highlighted in green.

I will also look into refining the picks based on the more detailed metrics we discussed.

As far as starting a thread and tracking - I may do that - but am horrible at it.....I give you props for maintaining a thread - it's a LOT of WORK

I do plan on starting a thread to provide all the systems i automated so far (i.e B2W's, yours, another mystery one etc) - but right now i'm focused on figuring out which ones are the best - i.e win money by the boatload)

More to come

 
 
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DAMN DAMN DAMN - waited too long and missed LAD!!!!
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