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Kreatture's Playbook 2011

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Posted: #251
Sorry bout the Knicks play, I don't need to be tailing anyone and I definitely know better than to be tailing a computer pick. So my bad there. It cost me a +$ night.

Not sure what the Hell happened in Edmonton.. actually I do, I have been watching since the beginning of the 3rd. A 3-0 1st Period lead and 3-1 after 2 quickly disappeared in the 3rd, and the refs decided to put the whistle away the final 10 minutes. Should have been an easy blowout tonight, but instead they're in a shootout now..

1 more save Anderson.. .. .. wow he actually stopped Taylor Hall. Still pissed with how this one ended.

Doesn't look like Utah/Portland is gonna stay Under, so looks like about a breakeven night thanks to me throwing that stupid Knicks play in there.

World Juniors early tomorrow, I'll be on every game. Feel bad for not realizing everyone would be able to get the same bet I could, so tomorrow I will just play whatever the regular max for everyone else is.

Damn this should have been a big night.. disappointing. See you tomorrow.
 
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Posted: #252
Quote Originally Posted by kreatture:


BANKROLL: $12,893.20

OVERALL RECORD: 35-25-2    (58.3%)

INVESTED: $14322.75
RETURNED: $17215.95
PROFIT: +$2893.20
ROI %: +20.20%


U20 WORLD JUNIOR CHAMPIONSHIP

Parley  (-513)    

Sweden  ML (-625) 
USA  ML (-5000) 
Russia  ML (-10000)
3% $644.66 to win $125.66  

Russia  -5.5 (-125)    
2% $257.86 to win $206.29


NBA

San Antonio Spurs  (-3) (-105)    
3% $386.80 to win $368.38

Utah/Portland  Under 188 (-103)    
1% $128.93 to win $125.17

New York Knicks  +7.5 (-102)    
3% $386.80 to win $379.22


NHL

Chicago Blackhawks  ML (-150)    
1% $128.93 to win $85.95

Colorado Avalanche  ML (-150)    
4% $515.73 to win $343.82

Colorado Avalanche  -0.5 (+117)    
2% $257.86 to win $301.70

Colorado Avalanche  -1.5 (+195)    
1% $128.93 to win $251.41


 
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Posted: #253

Love your post and work - keep it up - I follow it all the time... The COL -0.5 (+117) - was that for 2P or 3P I am guessing?

 
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Posted: #254
BANKROLL: $12,905.90
OVERALL RECORD: 39-30-2    (56.5%)

INVESTED: $17,159.25
RETURNED: $20,065.15
PROFIT: +$2905.90
ROI %: +16.93%


Profited +$12.70 .. LoL  Son of a..

Will try to finish the year off right tomorrow. Sorry bout tonight.

Cheers 
 
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Posted: #255
Quote Originally Posted by kvs23:

Love your post and work - keep it up - I follow it all the time... The COL -0.5 (+117) - was that for 2P or 3P I am guessing?



I'm sorry I've always posted next to every NHL game if the play is (OT included) or just (regulation), and this was the first night I forgot to post that next to it. All my games started later but that Knicks game started in 10 minutes so I was rushing to get it posted in time.

Once again, sorry for the mess-up tonight, I'll be back on top of my own plays tomorrow.

Thanks for the kind words.

Cheers 
 
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Posted: #256
Colorado/Edmonton was very two young teams squaring off.  It's easy to overlook how inexperienced Colorado is because of how well they have been playing.  Blowing third period leads happen to young teams, as do third period comebacks.  I witnessed Edmonton doing it to my Habs earlier this year.

Duschesne is the real deal, and at this point is ahead of Tavares in his development.  Taylor Hall will be a superstar in this league. 

Looking forward to the U20 tourney today; Canada's first big test.  I sure wish I had more confidence with Roy between the pipes. But Schenn is a treat to watch, ain't he?
 
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Posted: #257
Keep it up man you are fun to follow!
 
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Posted: #258

Good Morning Folks.

I see Pinnacle has ML's up for the World Juniors today but you can't parley them, so I'm going over the odds on Intertops to put the parley together. The PL's are lower than I expected so I'll be playing those as well, and the odds are slightly better on Pinnacle for 3 of them, but better on Intertops for the 4th. First game is Slovakia/Finland and is just under 2 hours away. Max bet for online wagers seems to be $280, so I'll tailor wagers with that in mind. There won't be a lot of money to be made, but it's pretty easy money compared to most things.

Be back shortly.. 

 
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Posted: #259

BANKROLL: $12,905.90
OVERALL RECORD: 39-30-2    (56.5%)

INVESTED: $17,159.25
RETURNED: $20,065.15
PROFIT: +$2905.90
ROI %: +16.93%

  

U20 WORLD JUNIOR CHAMPIONSHIP

 

Parley  (-435)

Finland  ML (-833)

USA  ML (-1000)

2.17% $280 to win $344.60

 

Parley  (-172)

Finland  ML (-833)

USA  ML (-1000)

Russia  ML (-357)

2.17% $280 to win $442.40

 

Parley  (+121)

Finland  ML (-833)       12:30pm EST

USA  ML (-1000)        8:00pm EST

Russia  ML (-357)         7:00pm EST

Canada  ML (-250)           4:00pm EST

1.17% $151 to win $333.71

 

Singles

 

 Finland  -3 (-120)

1% $129.06 to win $107.55

 

 Russia  -2 (-120)

1% $129.06 to win $107.55

 
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Posted: #260

No surprise here folks, rolling with the favorites. We don't usually see upsets in this Tournament and I don't see any happening today either. If your Book will allow you to wager more on the Finland/USA parley, I recommend you take the Max Bet you can get. Russia is a superior team to the Czechs and I don't see Canada losing until they matchup with the USA in the Championship Game. Sweden didn't miss their best player much yesterday, but it will be felt today. Canada is so deep even with the injuries they have they will be too much for Sweden in the end.

 

It's not a lot of extra money, but we don't leave ANY money on the table when it's sitting there for the taking. Welcome to the New Evolution.

 

Cheers 

 
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Posted: #261

Quote Originally Posted by mickjam:

Looking forward to the U20 tourney today; Canada's first big test.  I sure wish I had more confidence with Roy between the pipes. But Schenn is a treat to watch, ain't he?

Property of my LA Kings! He sure is!

 
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Posted: #262

Ugh, I am so excited for hockey today I posted the Total Payout for the Parleys instead of just the actual "Win" amount.. I'll fix it next post..

And I always have trouble posting here on this computer where I'm at during the day. Always get a message saying it's above the 7800 character limit, even tho it's only 1300.. so I have to actually write it in Word then paste it here. What a pain.

Enjoy your day!

 
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Posted: #263

BANKROLL: $12,905.90
OVERALL RECORD: 39-30-2    (56.5%)

INVESTED: $17,159.25
RETURNED: $20,065.15
PROFIT: +$2905.90
ROI %: +16.93%

 

 

U20 WORLD JUNIOR CHAMPIONSHIP

 

Parley  (-435)

Finland  ML (-833)

USA  ML (-1000)

2.17% $280 to win $64.40

 

Parley  (-172)

Finland  ML (-833)

USA  ML (-1000)

Russia  ML (-357)

2.17% $280 to win $162.40

 

Parley  (+121)

Finland  ML (-833)       12:30pm EST

USA  ML (-1000)        8:00pm EST

Russia  ML (-357)         7:00pm EST

Canada  ML (-250)           4:00pm EST

1.17% $151 to win $182.71

 

Singles

 

Finland  -3 (-120)

1% $129.06 to win $107.55

 

Russia  -2 (-120)

1% $129.06 to win $107.55

 
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Posted: #264
Kreatture, I don't see how to parlay the U20 on Intertops. 
 
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Posted: #265
Kreatture  do you know an american bookie for the U20 parlay I don't find it on betus or 5dimes and pinacle does not accept americans betting   Thank you for your picks
 
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Posted: #266
Sorry bout that, I see how to now.  Would you recommend going ahead with Parlay 2 and 3 without Finland in the mix?
 
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Posted: #267

Quote Originally Posted by mickjam:

Sorry bout that, I see how to now.  Would you recommend going ahead with Parlay 2 and 3 without Finland in the mix?

Sorry, I had to step away for a bit. Yes you can still do the 2nd and 3rd parley without Finland, it will only lower it a bit.

I am leaving here now and will be home in a bit to post the NHL. 4 plays starting at 5pm EST.

 
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Posted: #268
Hi Kreature,

Love your work here. Great job. I do have one question about your parlays, though. As I know you are well aware, a parlay takes the amount of your bet and places it on Game A. If that game wins your parlay recalculates the bet amount for the next game, and throws everything on Game B. If game B wins, you win 13-5. This is a great advantage when you have simultaneous games like on NFL Sunday. My question is this, though, why would you parlay games that don't occur at the same time? If you made these bets one at a time, wouldn't you have control over your losses since one game happens much later? In other words, If Finland loses at 12:30 (God forbid), you wouldn't be locked in to that USA game which occurs much later. You could create your own parlay manually without the risk. If Finland wins, take your return + inv and put it on USA. I believe your odds should be the same. Let me know if I'm missing something.

Thanks and have a great new year!


 
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Posted: #269
Jonny, yes it would be basically the same which is why parleying is often so stupid to do. That's a big reason why you haven't seen me do a single parley here.

Any other time I agree, but International Hockey is much different than the Pro Leagues. There's absolutely no way Finland or USA loses today, so with the Max bet limits I've just decided to put them on the parley. Otherwise it would look like this:

Finland (-833)  $280 to win $33.61
USA (-1000) $280 to win $28

$33.61 + $28 = $61.61

So it's only a difference of $2.79, but still, when I saw leave no money on the table.. I mean, leave no money on the table. 

Finland looking strong up 6-0 with 12min left.. nice start to the day hitting the -3 play, as well.

Cheers 
 
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Posted: #270
NHL

New Jersey Devils  -0.5 (+129) (regulation)
3% $387.18 to win $499.46

Montreal Canadians  ML (+120) (OT included)
2% $258.12 to win $309.74

Vancouver Canucks  ML (-117) (OT included)
2% $258.12 to win $220.62

St. Louis Blues  ML (-143) (OT included)
1% $129.06 to win $90.25


NBA

Philadelphia 76ers/Los Angeles Lakers  Under 195.5 (-102)
1% $129.06 to win $126.53
 
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Posted: #271
Roy is humping the pooch against Sweden.  Regulation win didn't work for me in the end
 
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Posted: #272
Wow, what a choke job by Canada.  Other than the obvious pile of steaming turd dropped by Roy, Canada seemed out of sorts today.  I found Sweden took it to them for much of the game.  That sounds odd to say in a game in which you score 5 goals, but almost all of them were softies, and they never built on the momentum.

I guess the good news is that it provides the opportunity for one more blowout.  They will probably face Russia there, and I hope they decide to make a statement of the game.  Canada cannot finish 4th, plain and simple.
 
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Posted: #273
It was a pathetic effort from Canada, they didn't even deserve getting to a shootout.

Sweden wasn't very impressive either. USA will definitely be favored against either of these teams.

Jersey is playing well and Hedberg shutting the door, as expected, thus far and Montreal with a nice 2 goal comeback to even things going to the 3rd. Still hoping to be over the +$3000 mark by the end of the year.
 
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Posted: #274
Quote Originally Posted by jav5652:

Kreatture  do you know an american bookie for the U20 parlay I don't find it on betus or 5dimes and pinacle does not accept americans betting   Thank you for your picks


I forgot to answer this earlier, sorry, but I do not know. I only use Pinnacle and Intertops exclusively now. I do have an account at TheGreek still, I'll check there..

I don't even see the Juniors listed anywhere on TheGreek. Maybe someone else here can answer that if they know.

Cheers 
 
 
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Posted: #275
Waw great job are u doing here Kreatture !!! keep the good work ! GL  
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