Kreatture's Playbook 2011

Hey guys, I just realized I have some old PMs sitting in my Inbox which I haven't responded to.

Mick you've been supportive all along and I just noticed one in particular from you back on the 13th which I don't believe I've responded too. I don't know if I'll be able to get to them all today (and not home tonight), but I'll make it a point over the next few days to get to them.

For those asking about MLB and the Runline Blitz, that System has never started for me until the 1st month of season is over in past.. but I did keep track of April last year and it did not lose in that month either. That bein said I will not be starting it tomorrow, but will update later.

I should be able to post plays for tonight here, and will shortly. As per my Twitter earlier, there will be at least 1 BOMB tonight!

Cheers 

Still waiting on some info, have dropped one play due to conflicting information but definitely looks like I'll be firing one big play tonight. I gotta head out now so most likely will only be able to post on Twitter.

Like I said, it's just info.. so do with it what you will.

Cheers

Thanks for the kind words.  I have learned much from this thread.  I look forward to your reply.

This is a day later, trying to figure out what to do with San Antonio.  From what I hear, Duncan and Ginoboli will play, which makes the line look quite tasty, IMHO.

Been busy all day, but managed to sneak in viewing some of the Yankees game. Cashed my 1st MLB play with the Over 8 in that one. No other plays today unless SF Giants get to +115, otherwise not enough value to lay it down. Would play the Over 6.5 but the high juice took the value away so can't play it.

Mick - Some Sharps were on Celtics this morning but as day progressed they have bought back that play and are laying Spurs now. Good Luck whatever your play.

I'm tired tonight, going to play a little PS3 then head to sleep. See you on the weekend.

As I posted on Twitter last night, will post here as well since I have a chance.. MLB Value Plays for Friday, April 1st. Listed Pitchers MUST Start, otherwise No Action & wagers are refunded.

 

3* MINNESOTA TWINS  +118 (Pavano/Romero)

5* LA ANGELS  -138 (Haren/Francis) (Play of the Day)

2* SEATTLE MARINERS  +105 (Hernandez/Cahill)

The Angels line has dropped to -132 now & Seattle is +107, so even better betting them now. I'm not convinced Romero is 100% healthy yet and will be looking to fade him early this season until he throws a solid 7 inning game. Dan Haren is a beast, do people not remember him?? Typical very fast starter vs. Francis who will most likely be hurt within a couple months again. Royals send out arguably one of the worst offenses in history this year. Felix Hernenadez is arguably the BEST pitcher in the Majors, and it would take one helluva counter-argument to support otherwise. Will be looking to Fade Trevor Cahill often this season.. he was the luckiest pitcher in the entire Majors last season, supported by his Majors-worst BABIP stat. Great Value on not the better team here - but the better pitcher.

NCAAB

Creighton/Oregon -- Strong Lean to Under.. Not confirmed yet.

Kentucky/UConn - Kentucky to the Bank. Lean to Under.

VCU/Butler - Butler to the Bank. Under to the Bank. Vegas has really screwed up this line. And no, I'm not still hating on VCU.. I've gone back and re-watched all their Tourney games and they have performed great. They controlled Kansas the entire way and really deserved that win. Both these teams have over-performed tho, but only one will be exposed this weekend.

 

Enjoy your day 

Hi kreatture,

Hi Kreatture,

Minny and Seattle

Good thing there's over 1200 MLB games this Season.. would be a shame to PANIC over an Opening Day loss..

Haren was great, Francis was (unexpectedly) great.. don't regret the play.

As a hardcore Jays fan (as well as Dodgers), I'm really fuckin happy that Lind, Bautista, Arencibia & Arencibia all swatted dingers.. but Romero didn't live up to expectations.. he didn't get through 7 innings like I said I wanted him to do..

..........

Um.. is it too late for April Fool's??? ROMERO WAS BRILLIANT!!!!!!!!!! I LOVED IT!!!!!!!! Yes, my money was on the other side, but I am so happy to see him pitch the way he did. He was the first to admit he had a miserable Spring, but said he was healthy going into tonight.. God Bless Him, he was great!

It was 2-2 in Oakland when I began this post, but I see it is 5-2 SEATTLE now! Oops, 6-2! Felix got off to a rough spot but Cahill was exposed like I thought he would be. Fade this guy when there's an Ace on the mound!  So a 1-2 day for MLB isn't great, but after the 1-0 Opening Day Over on Tigers/Yankees I'm only down a few Units.. geez.. too bad there's only 1100+ games left for me to make up my loss..

People want the Runline Blitz System & the Top Home Team System.. but I'm not an Idiot who Chases anymore.. and altho I always said I would make them work, I don't want to promote the Chase of these Systems, cuz someone will inevitably FUCK IT UP and lose a lot of money, cuz they would defer off my written path..

To be honest with ya.. the Runline Blitz hasn't experienced a 6 Game Chase Loss over the past few years.. and that scares the shit out of me.. Chases are only good for so long.. so maybe this is the year when it finally crashes.. altho I believe my adaptation into the Criss-Cross Blitz would prevent this from happening, I just don't have the time right now to properly handicap MLB games on a daily basis, which is what's required to be successful at this.

I'm still planning on moving the first of May, and my life will really change at that point.. so don't expect much until then. If ya'll remember, none of my Systems started until May 1st anyway.. so just chill and enjoy the other threads here.. there are a couple of pretty good ones I believe (I will 100% endorse Call82's Sabermetrics thread).. Live, Sleep, Eat, Breath, Sabermetrics.. you will KILL baseball. FACT.

I'll be posting the Formula I'm using this Season in that thread after a couple weeks in. You can be a total douchebag when it comes to picking games, but if you know Sabermetrics.. like TOTALLY envelop your life into understanding it.. you WILL kill MLB over the long run.. FULL SEASON = LONG RUN

So take your Chase Systems and go fuck yourself.. you're one bad week from losing your bankroll. There's NO ONE on this forum right now who's smart enough to run a successful Chase System.. and that includes all the new MLB Systems which have sprung up this past week. If you actually applied a REAL bankroll to some of these Systems, you'd have been broke early last year.. don't let false Lab Lines suck you in. Bottom Line.. if you're Chasing - you're a dreamer you doesn't have the first clue about how to make money in this Business.

I feel like I have learned about all I can from this Forum. I appreciate everything it gave me over the past 2+ years, but I haven't been learning anything from anyone here lately. I've been lucky enough to surround myself with Professionals who are willing to share their stories and teach me what they have lived for the past few decades.

Eventually, if you want to quit killing yourself over numbers, you'll realize what this Business is all about.. it's a Market, just like with Stocks.. except our Stocks are Sports Teams, and Players. You have to learn when to buy low, and sell high. Good teams will not always play their best, and bad teams will not always play their worst.

Some of you get it.. most of you don't. MLB just started, an the first thing I can tell you is this - Don't be laying big juice on a daily basis! And don't be CHASING Big Juice daily!! How stupid do you have to be to think this is a good idea?? Records lie.. Units made usually lie.. don't believe shit just cuz someone posts it.

It's the same game plan as any good poker player.. Play Small Pots, win slowly.. Avoid getting involved in Massive Pots. You could play perfect all night, but then get involved in one massive pot and lose everything you gained all night.. that's what Chasing is like.. and no one here is smart enough to overcome Chase losses.

Best of Luck to everyone.. anyone who talks bad about another capper is someone who you should run far from.. the Best cappers don't worry about what others are saying about them, they just do their thing and prove their worth.. they don't hide from anyone. The Jealous Haters will always show up.. in EVERY thread. If you're successful, just keep doin your thing.. keep great records, and the haters will have no choice but to disappear.

I may not have been producing lots of winners for everyone the past little bit, but that's not really what this is all about.. everyone is so focused on "What can you do for me right now!" and that's fine.. but those guys will NEVER understand this Business and be successful over the long run.

Anyone who truly knows me here knows how bad I want this to eventually be my Living.. I'm not all about making the quick buck. I've learned more in the past month than I EVER knew about this Business, and I'm finally starting to understand how this all works.. I can't even explain it to you guys.. it's not all about crunching numbers and picking winners.. it's all about understanding how the Market works and gaining as much Info as possible on each game. INFORMATION = MONEY. And I don't even expect most of you to even understand what that statement really means right now..

It's all good.. give a man a few winners, he'll be rich for a week.. show a man how to work, he'll be rich forever..

Problem is.. barely any of you really want to work.

Complete Game King Felix.. the Seattle offense will hold him down all year, and keep those plays around 2*, even tho he IS the best pitcher in the Majors.. Oakland will be a great Value team this Season, but not when Trevor Cahill is on the hill.

-5.9 Units tonight.. but honestly couldn't be more happy with how the games played out. That will sound very weird to most of you.. and so be it. Fuck off, I'll see you tomorrow.

Conflicting Info coming in on Kentucky/UConn earlier today.. just wanted to pass along since I posted I was strong on Kentucky earlier. A couple of well respected Wiseguys are on both sides now, and no true position has been taken by the majority.. Billy Walters' Outfit has yet to chose a side from what I've gathered..

Personally, I'm still on Kentucky & the Under, but I've yet to lock anything in. There will be much info coming in over the next 12 hours.. I'll try and pass along what I can up until 2pm EST tomorrow, after which time I will be unavailable.

The Game of the Year tho will still be VCU/Butler UNDER. The Public wants to back this VCU team and their feelgood story, which also leads to an Over play based on Public Perception.. but Vegas is gonna take a soak on this one with the Sharps. One of the things I've learned is that Public money will often move lines more so than Wiseguy money in the NCAA Tourney, so be careful of line moves. The Public has cleaned up so far while the Sharps have been beat down this Tourney.. but expect the good guys to get the last laugh tomorrow.

BUTLER -2.5
VCU/BUTLER UNDER 133.5 GOY*

Appreciate your insight as always Kreatture

My issue with the run line blitz is the fact it is a chase system, albeit successful but like you said when does that run end?  That's why I was looking into a different MM strategy to further profit from this as well as withstand a meltdown which is inevetable at some point, we just don't know when.  The draw to it for me was it's sheer simplicity.  I'm not afraid to work to find results but I truly don't have the time which sucks.

The only way to learn here is through experience, I know I've evolved since day 1, only I wish I had the money back I've lost.  I've been smart enough not to invest a lot.  I put in cash to make it real and make myself accountable, no money involved, no worries, no learning, no good.  For me right now it's not about the money it's about WINNING consistantly.

I'm dabbling in Sabermetrics for first time and thanks to MME (another poster here) has helped me a lot, still I have much to learn and figure out, and that's why I'm rooting for Call82 and his thread!  Sports_Networks thread posted here in the past is still my favourite contribution to this forum....great read...wonder how he's doing.  To bad I wasn't around when that was going down, oh well.

I can see your mentality has shifted in the business, find value and the lines tell the story approach.  If we could all be on the same side as the sportsboooks we'd all be WINNING!  The key is to pick the right spots.

I have no doubt you'll succeed Kreatture I believe you have what it takes.

Thanks for your insight as always, and continued success on your journey.

Just wow..Kreatture, are you bi-polar ?. You do nothing but lose...wheter its your Kelly Criterion ,..your new evolution...your Bombs ..or your on tilt 10 unit bets. Yet you talk like you no so much more then everyone..So now sabremetrics is your latest thing.once yo ulose at that whats next ?. Ya know, at least when the Thinker is losing, he realizes it, you, you are delusional, the more you lose, the better you think you are.. i see you are down to one follower now..LOL..  stfu you wannabe

i always enjoy reading yor write-ups keepem coming.always great info

Thinker is that you?.....and your 1 post. 

If not where's your contribution?

Kreatture,

I've got to be honest!  Ever since you started posting about the information you are getting from vegas it made me naturally start to discredit you.  It's almost as if you are a new person.  From my experience a sharp play is not always the best play.  What I'm saying is STICK TO WHAT YOU KNOW!  Don't worry about all that vegas money or crews.  Take care of your business and you will WIN!  Kreatture it may just be my opinion but you completely did a u turn and when you start posting GOY and Bomb plays which you didn't do in the past it makes me confused on your integrity.  I hope you don't take this the wrong way.  U sound like  solid dude!  To much information isnt always good information!!!!!!

Wow I feel honoured that someone would take the time to create a new account just to post a garbage comment.. post it using your real name here and at least I would respect that.

The only losing thread I've ever had on here was the NHL Playoffs last season, MLB has been +money each of the past 2 seasons.. so get your facts straight. I'm also 1-1 on those 10 Unit plays, so good to know you don't pay attention.

Sabermetrics has been a part of MLB approach all along, it's not new this year. Where do these people come from? They have nothing better to do than try and rip people down.. focus on your own games and quit worrying about others. It's funny that they still just have to come in and read the latest post tho, isn't it?

At least I respect Thinker for trying.. you have to fail before you can learn how to succeed. I honestly hope his MLB Program kicks ass and he gets what he's looking for.

It has been a very reliable System and I hate to just throw it away, but I can't endorse a chasing system to people anymore as it's not steering them in the right direction. A better MM Strategy may work, but I haven't really looked into it too much, yet. The MLB systems I've always used haven't started until the 1st of May, so there's still a few weeks to figure something out.

MME has a lot of great insight with Sabermetrics, I'm happy to hear he's been able to help you out! And yes, it's a shame sports_Network isn't still around on the forum (not posting anyway, but I believe he still checks in on things from time to time). I'm sure he's doing great 

[Quote: Originally Posted by kreatture]

The only losing thread I've ever had on here was the NHL Playoffs last season,

 

 

Oh really ?.. hows this one doing ?..thats right soon as it got WAY down you stopped keeping track .. so what exactly is a bomb  5% 10 % /LOL ..pretty easy to say you never had a losing thread when you stop keeping track soon as it was down..you are a clown

Chaser.. Thanks for caring and proving my point.

your point being ? ..

Kreatture,

I felt we have always had fairly respectful encounters on here and would hope that continues....

Your previous post was extremely condescending to a lot of the members of the board including myself.  You have actually shown us chase systems and money management that can be successful over the last few years, yet then say those that chase can "go fuck yourself"????  Furthermore, you insult the efforts of those trying to find an angle by saying no one is intelligent enough to run a successful chase system and insult the use of labby lines as a money management tool.  I have to disagree on both accounts.  The labouchere method can be used very effectively in chasing not only to minimize bankroll exposure but also as a recovery tool.  The danger in all chase systems is betting beyond the limits of your bankroll.

I hate laying heavy juice on plays also.  If I would not have won money with my system last year I would not be doing it again.  The truth is last year laying the juice helped me clear lines more quickly and make more profit.  I don't know if it will hold true this year or not.  My NBA system in theory did horribly this year with many 4 quarter losses by teams but staying the course and using my labby lines in am hitting around 50% at all level of the plays, lines are crossed off and profit is gained over the long run.  I think that is all we can ask for.There are different ways to make money at this and alot of ways to blow up your bankroll. 

Above all else, is money management.  I wish you luck in your quest to be able to do this full-time because we all know that is extremely rare and difficult.  I just hope you don't burn too many bridges getting there.  You never know when someone may come up with a system, approach or way of thinking that may benefit you down the road.  

K-man-

I always admire your dedication, analysis, and input on this forum.  I think you bring a lot to the folks here and certainly you are one of the smarter regular contributors here.  Maybe you had a few drinks last night, but this last post you made seemed a little cocky and condescending.  However...it's a good source for discussion about gambling philosophy.

As a relatively active trader, I agree that sports gambling is like the stock market...but if you know anything about the basics of trading then you know there are TWO basic schools of thought and most traders fall into one of two camps: Fundamental Analysts and Technical Analysts.  Fundamental analysis relies on information...news, the economy, what have you and then determines whether a stock is under or over valued.  Technical analysis ignores all that and focuses on pricing patterns and historical performance only...basically using numbers and charts to determine the direction a stock will move.  I've made no secret about it...I am a numbers man.  For me, that's the key to success.  Personally, I prefer to use something like 90% technical analysis and then employ a little fundamental analysis bring a little common sense into my investing/gambling decision making.  Read the first word of that last sentence again...PERSONALLY.  My point is that there is not ONE way to do this as your post implies here:



 You seem to leaning towards a fundamental approach...i.e. getting info from "sharps" and gathering info about teams/players.  That is totally fine.  What you are missing is that there is more than one way to be successful at this.  I think you can use a fundamental approach, but that doesn't work for me.  If you don't like technical analysis, don't discredit it...crunching numbers can work quite well.  There are plenty of folks who make money doing this using either approach...or a combination of the two.  People who like to crunch numbers are not in the dark, as you imply, they are simply using a different approach to (hopefully) arrive at the same outcome...winning!

You seem to understand this already on some level because even though you seem to fall in the fundamental analysis camp, you strongly endorse sabermetrics.  Sabermetrics is nothing more than crunching numbers.  It ignores all the "noise" and uses past performance to predict future results.  This is only my opinion but I think a succesful strategy is the combination of sabermetrics and a fundamental approach.  Remember what sports_network always said (was really the first person to bring a sabermetrics approach to this forum)...you run the numbers and then apply situational analyis.   I think the starting place is in the numbers...you don't...but don't go bashing people for it.  It's a matter of opinion.

Yes, there are a lot of douchebags on this forum...and there will always be those who follow the hot system/capper and trash that person when things swing bad.  For everything you've learned in the past 2 years, you still haven't learned to ignore that part of the game.  This post you made last night a more sophistocated, verbose attempt at doing the same thing they do...putting others down and pumping yourself up.  Don't regress to the childish nature that you've grown to hate...just keep doing your thing.  Life is too short and there are too many games to analyze to be wasting time on negativity.  If "Chaser1" wants to bash you...trust me...the best thing you can do is write a short, unopinionated reply or just say nothing at all.  He'll go away.  We've seen it enough times around here.

I hope you can continue to make good contributions here...I enjoy your threads/comments/journey and will continue to follow along.  Good luck and looking forward to the MLB season.

Leprechaun

Hi leprechaun,