Leprechaun's 2011 MLB System

Thursday, June 16 MLB Series System Picks

1. Det (-155) to win 0.5 units
2. Ari (-140) to win 1 unit
3. Special parlay Det RL (+125)/Ari RL (+160): 0.5 units to win 2.43 units

***Results from June 15***

1. Bos (-125) to win 1 unit...............win 1 unit
2. Oak (-145) to win 1 unit...............win 1 unit
3. Ari (-115) to win  1 unit................lose 1.15 units

Total for June 15: 2-1, +0.85 units

Overall SU System Record: 25-28, -11.00 units

***Notes***

Well, we got 2 of 3 for a positive day.  That's good but we're down slightly for the week after a bunch of very low strength small plays.  Nice to see the Red Sox get the win yesterday.  They have been treating everybody well.  Speaking of Boston, do you realize they have won championships in all four major sports in just a 6 year span!!??  No way that's ever happened.

Good luck,

Leprechaun

Friday, June 17 MLB Series System Picks

1. Yanks (-140) to win 1 unit
2. Bos (-115) to win .75 units
3. Cards RL (+125) risk 1.25 units
4. Ariz (-135) to win 1.25 units

***Results from June 16***

1. Det (-155) to win 0.5 units...................win 0.5 units
2. Ari (-140) to win 1 unit........................win 1 unit
3. Special parlay Det/Ari...........................lose 0.5 units

Total for June 16: 2-1, +1.0 units

Overall SU System Record: 27-29, -10.00 units

***Notes***

Just barely missed a huge night.  No worries...ended in the positive for the day and we are no up just a little for the week.  This system generally does extremely well during interleague so it could start a run for us.  To be honest, I was hoping there would be more plays today but we can't force it.  There still hasn't been any good opportunities to get aggressive.  Gotta stay patient.  btw...I hate this yankees play today, but we stick with the system.  Just a heads up...I'm headed out on a camping trip for the weekend.  It looks like we won't be too far from civilization so I should still be able to post, but I make no promises.  Life always comes before sports and gambling.  Enjoy the weekend!

Good luck,

Leprechaun

Saturday, June 18 MLB Series System Picks

1. Dodgers (-135) to win 1.4 units
2. Mets (+120) risk 0.8 units
3. Cards (-160) to win 2 units
4. Philly (+130) risk 0.5 units
5. Yanks (-140) to win 1 unit

***Notes***

No time for comments.  will total everything later.

Good luck,

Leprechaun

Monday, June 20 MLB Series System Picks

1. Bos RL (+105) risk 0.5 units
2. White Sox (-140) to win 0.75 units
3. Cle (-120) to win 0.5 units

***Results from June 17***

1. Yanks (-140) to win 1 unit.......................lose 1.4 units
2. Bos (-115) to win .75 units.....................win 0.75 units
3. Cards RL (+125) risk 1.25 units.................lose 1.25 units
4. Ariz (-135) to win 1.25 units....................win 1.25 units

***Results from June 18***

1. Dodgers (-135) to win 1.4 units...............lose 1.89 units
2. Mets (+120) risk 0.8 units.....................win 0.96 units
3. Cards (-160) to win 2 units......................win 2 units
4. Philly (+130) risk 0.5 units......................win 0.65 units
5. Yanks (-140) to win 1 unit......................win 1 unit

Total for June 17: 2-2, -0.65 units
Total for June 18: 2-1, +2.72 units

Overall SU System Record: 31-32, -7.93 units

***Notes***

Sorry, I didn't have a chance to post on Sunday.  Too bad, because the system had two more winners in the Dodgers and Atlanta.  Would have been nice to add those units to our total but for obvious reasons we don't count unposted plays after the fact.  On the upside, we had a great Saturday with the Dodgers being the only blemish.  It also solidified our second straight week in the positive (about +2.6 units) and now being in the black by the end of this week is a real possibility.  We got crushed early but we are crawling forward just fine.  One or two weeks cannot make a system.  You have to keep grinding it out.

For today, again, the system is giving us nothing strong.  Cleveland comes up again, just barely, partly because they have quietly won 5 of their last 7.  Red Sox are facing one of the weakest teams in the league.  We tread lightly on these plays and don't force it.  Let's see if we can pick up a unit today.

Good luck,

Leprechaun

Like a good bottle of wine, it get's better with age. 

I also have Cleveland starting today.

Tuesday, June 21 MLB Series System Picks

1. Cle (+115) risk 1 unit
2. CHW (-135) to win 1.3 units
3. SF (-150) to win 0.75 units
4. Mets (-140) to win 1 unit

***Results from June 20***

1. Bos RL (+105) risk 0.5 units...............................win 0.5 units
2. White Sox (-140) to win 0.75 units.....................lose 1.05 units
3. Cle (-120) to win 0.5 units.......................lose 0.6 units

Total for June 20: 1-2, -1.15 units

Overall SU System Record: 32-34, -9.08 units

***Notes***

It was a night of big innings.  Sunk our ship in two games and got us a win in another.  So many tough matchups even though it's interleague.  Hope we can make a move forward today.

Good luck,

Leprechaun

Wednesday, June 22 MLB Series System Picks

1. SF (-140) to win 1.5 units
2. Mets (-110) to win 1.5 units
3. Bos RL (-110) to win 0.5 units
4. Det (+100) risk 0.75 units

***Results from June 21***

1. Cle (+115) risk 1 unit................................lose 1 unit (grrrrrrrrrr!)
2. CHW (-135) to win 1.3 units........................win 1.3 units
3. SF (-150) to win 0.75 units........................lose 1.13 units
4. Mets (-140) to win 1 unit........................lose 1.4 units

Total for June 21: 1-3, -2.23 units

Overall SU System Record: 33-38, -11.31 units

***Notes***

I must admit this was the first day I have been a little upset about the lack of production of the system.  I felt like we were fighting our way back pretty steadily and this was the first decent set back in 10 days or so.  I feel like I'm getting beat down from all angles.  I don't normally get personal in this space...but your friendly neighborhood Leprechaun is having a hard time keeping his spirits up.  I lost a good friend to cancer on Sunday. Makes all this gambling and everything else seem sort of pointless.  I'll keep the train going.  Back to normal tomorrow, I promise.  Believe it or not, it's somewhat therapeutic to admit you're hurting a little.  In a strange way, it's easier to do it behind the impersonal wall of these forums than it is to confront the folks I see everyday.  Tomorrow will be a better day.  R.I.P. EH.  Hope you found my pot of gold on the other side.

Good luck,

Leprechaun

Thursday, June 23 MLB Series System Picks

There are no plays for Thursday.

***Results from June 22***

1. SF (-140) to win 1.5 units..................win 1.5 units
2. Mets (-110) to win 1.5 units...............win 1.5 units
3. Bos RL (-110) to win 0.5 units............lose 0.55 units
4. Det (+100) risk 0.75 units.................win .75 units

Total for June 22: 3-1, +3.2 units

Overall SU System Record: 33-38, -8.11 units

***Notes***

Good day for the system...erased the weeks losses more or less.  Got a little greedy on Boston, but glad we stayed small.  They've been very good to us.  Despite the struggles of the system this year, playing the RL has saved us big on losses.  That's the one major positive so far.  I'm still looking to see if there are spots where we can get more aggressive.  I prefer to do that on the first game of a series if possible but we have not been winning those at near the clip we were last year.  Short schedule today and we have no plays.  Good to have a day off...I need it.  Back on Friday.

Enjoy a zero worry day,

Leprechaun

Friday, June 24 MLB Series System Picks

1. Yanks (-130) to win 1 unit
2. Philly (-155) to win 1.5 units
3. TB (-125) to win 1.5 units
4. KC (-105) to win 1.5 units
5. Boston (-160) to win 1 unit
6. Mil (-140) to win 1.5 units
7. Sea (-150) to win 1 unit
8. SF (-125) to win 1.2 units
9. Atl (+100) risk 1 unit

***Results from June 23***

There were no plays on Thursday

Total for June 23: 0-0, +0.0 units

Overall SU System Record: 33-38, -8.11 units

***Notes***

Well, here we go with a huge slate today.  Many of these are very strong plays, but since the system is down, we keep our max risk at about 2.0-2.5 units for the first game in the series.  We saw this situation many times last year and it means either Friday or Saturday will be a big day.  No matter what, when it comes to units, we manage all these games together with an aim of coming out with at least 5 units of profit by Sunday.  A decent day today will make that easy.  Hold on to your hats!

Good luck,

Leprechaun

Saturday, June 25 MLB Series System Picks

1. Bos (-130) to win 1.2 units
2. KC (-110) to win 1.5 units
3. Philly RL (+115) risk 0.5 units
4. TB (+100) risk 0.75 units
5. Atl (-130) to win 2 units
6. Yanks RL (-125) to win 0.7 units

***Results from June 24***

1. Yanks (-130) to win 1 unit...................lose 1.3 units
2. Philly (-155) to win 1.5 units..................win 1.5 units
3. TB (-125) to win 1.5 units......................win 1.5 units
4. KC (-105) to win 1.5 units.....................lose 1.58 units
5. Boston (-160) to win 1 unit..................lose 1.6 units
6. Mil (-140) to win 1.5 units.....................win 1.5 units
7. Sea (-150) to win 1 unit......................win 1 unit
8. SF (-125) to win 1.2 units....................win 1.2 units
9. Atl (+100) risk 1 unit..........................lose 1 unit

Total for June 24: 5-4, +1.22 units

Overall SU System Record: 38-42, -6.89 units

***Notes***

Can't complain too much.  If not for a painful error in the Royals game in the top of the 9th, we may have been in better shape.  The Yankees loss puts them right on the line for falling out of the system but we'll stick with it.  Still gotta wait for the dust to settle, but for now I'm happy to have a plus unit day.  Let's see if Saturday will bring more luck our way.

Good luck,

Leprechaun

Sunday, June 26 MLB Series System Picks

1. Bos (-130) to win 0.5 units
2. Special parlay Bos (-130)/Atl (-125): 0.5 units to win 1.1 units

***Results from June 25***

1. Bos (-130) to win 1.2 units...................lose 1.56 units
2. KC (-110) to win 1.5 units....................win 1.5 units
3. Philly RL (+115) risk 0.5 units.................lose 0.5 units
4. TB (+100) risk 0.75 units......................win 0.75 units
5. Atl (-130) to win 2 units........................win 2 units
6. Yanks RL (-125) to win 0.7 units..............win 0.7 units

Total for June 25: 4-2, +2.89 units

Overall SU System Record: 42-44, -4.00 units

***Notes***

Another very successful day for the system.  We protect our profits for the week and back off today.  Red Sox should be a 2.5 unit play today but they are in a batting funk so I decided to drop it down to one unit.  At the same time, we'll tie half our Boston wager into a parlay with Atlanta, which was also a play.  Limits our exposure for the day...only way we can lose anything today is if the Red Sox lose.  Protecting the profit is the key.  Anytime you are up for the week, that's a good thing.  Enjoy your Sunday.

Good luck,

Leprechaun

Monday, June 27 MLB Series System Picks

1. Ari (-160) to win 0.75 units
2. Atl (+100) risk 1.2 units

***Results from June 26***

1. Bos (-130) to win 0.5 units...................win 0.5 units
2. Special parlay Bos (-130)/Atl (-125)........lose 0.5 units

Total for June 26: 1-1, +0.00 units

Overall SU System Record: 43-45, -4.00 units

***Notes***

In hindsight, we were probably a little too conservative yesterday, but in the grand scheme, no big deal.  My focus is always on protecting profits and personally, I think it's more important in some situations than creating gains.  In the last 3 weeks we've picked up over 15 units, which is great considering where this system started out.  I'd like to write up a little summary if I get the time today.  We have a short schedule and just 2 games to play.  I'll also play Detroit on the RL today...they missed being a system play because of the line being too high.  If they lose, they will be a play tomorrow for sure.  Last year, I would talk often about the system leans that were on the board, I'll start doing that more often going forward on days where I have a few extra minutes.  Hope the week starts great for everybody.

Good luck,

Leprechaun

Tuesday, June 28 MLB Series System Picks

1. Ari (-155) to win 1.5 units
2. Det (-140) to win 1.3 units
3. Yanks (-125) to win 0.5 units
4. Tex (-170) to win 0.75 units

***Results from June 27***

1. Ari (-160) to win 0.75 units.................lose 1.2 units
2. Atl (+100) risk 1.2 units......................win 1.2 units

Total for June 27: 1-1, +0.00 units

Overall SU System Record: 44-46, -4.00 units

***Notes***

Well, how's that for symmetry.  Two days in a row of the exact same record and exactly 0 units won.  I won my non sys play on Detroit at least.  I didn't realize that was a make up game, but it doesn't matter.  We play matchups in this system, not series.  Cleveland continues to kill this system, losing when we play on them and winning when we're against them.  They've probably cost us 10 units this season by now.  An Arizona win today will put us right on our way to being in the positive again.

Good luck,

Leprechaun

Wednesday, June 29 MLB Series System Picks

1. Det (-125) to win 2 units

***Results from June 28***

1. Ari (-155) to win 1.5 units..........................win 1.5 units
2. Det (-140) to win 1.3 units........................lose 1.82 units
3. Yanks (-125) to win 0.5 units....................win 0.5 units
4. Tex (-170) to win 0.75 units....................win 0.75 units

Total for June 28: 3-1, +0.93 units

Overall SU System Record: 47-47, -3.07 units

***Notes***

It took awhile, but we worked our record back to 50%.  Down just a few units and continue to head in the right direction.  We only have one official play today, but there is a good value play on the White Sox today according to my numbers.  I'll play that game for sure.  Light day...let's go Detroit!

Good luck,

Leprechaun

Thursday, June 30 MLB Series System Picks

1. Det RL (-105) to win 1.6 units

***Results from June 29***

1. Det (-125) to win 2 units..........................................lose 2.5 units

Total for June 29: 0-1, -2.50 units

Overall SU System Record: 47-48, -5.57 units

***Notes***

Mets bats are on fire...30 runs in 2 games???  Here comes Verlander to put them back in their places.  Run differential and runs scored are a part of the equation that determines the plays, so technically, Detroit has been pushed out of being a play today.  However, we use the same logic here that we did on the Red Sox a couple weeks ago.  Mets are a bit of an outlier because of the abnormally high number of runs they have scored the last two games.  The system doesn't understand this anomaly and gives the Mets too much credit.  We apply situational analysis here and stick with the play.  At the same time, we back off on our bet and play to get back to even for the week, instead of the 3-3.5 units I might normally lay in this situation.  We need to keep risk down and give ourselves a shot at staying up for the week.  Even a Det loss today doesn't cripple us.  Hopefully we'll get a full card on Friday to get the push we need to get the system in the black.

Good luck,

Leprechaun

Friday, July 1 MLB Series System Picks

1. Bos (-130) to win 1.3 units

***Results from June 30***

1. Det RL (-105) to win 1.6 units.................win 1.6 units

Total for June 30: 1-0, +1.6 units

Overall SU System Record: 48-48, -3.97 units

***Notes***

Worked out just as we hoped with Detroit.  Too bad we didn't hit it stronger, but hind sight is easy.  I want this system to focus on keeping risk low.  Not many good matchups this weekend.  We may not even get enough plays to have a chance to get back to even.  We'll have to see what Saturday brings.  Enjoy your Friday.

Good luck,

Leprechaun

Saturday, July 2 MLB Series System Picks

1. Cinci (-150) to win 0.5 units

***Results from July 1***

1. Bos (-130) to win 1.3 units....................win 1.3 units

Total for July 1: 1-0, +1.3 units

Overall SU System Record: 48-48, -2.67 units

***Notes***

Nice Red Sox rally.  Just the one small play today.  No reason to force anything.  Long weekend with lots going on so it's better not to have to watch the scores anyway:)

Good luck,

Leprechaun

Sunday, July 3 MLB Series System Picks

1. Cinci RL (+115) risk 0.5 units

***Results from July 2***

1. Cinci (-150) to win 0.5 units.................lose 0.75 units

Total for July 2: 0-1, -0.75 units

Overall SU System Record: 49-49, -3.42 units

***Notes***

Last play of the week.  Was a quiet weekend.  Would like to risk 1 unit here, but a loss would put us negative on the week.  I always do my best to have each week be positive, which we are assured by making this small play.  Enjoy your Sunday.

Good luck,

Leprechaun

Monday, July 4 MLB Series System Picks

1. Wash RL (+125) risk 1 unit
2. TB (-150) to win 1.5 units
3. CHW (-150) to win 1 unit
4. Tex (+100) risk 0.75 units
5. SF (-200) to win 0.5 units
6. Atl (-130) to win 1.5 units
7. Phi (+100) risk 0.5 units

***Results from July 3***

1. Cinci RL (+115) risk 0.5 units

Total for July 3: 1-0, +0.58 units

Overall SU System Record: 50-49, -2.84 units

***Notes***

Another positive week.  I think that's 3 in a row.  Short on time today but lots on the board.  Enjoy the fireworks, BBQ, friends and family!!

Good luck,

Leprechaun

Tuesday, July 5 MLB Series System Picks

1. TB (-110) to win 2 units
2. Wash (-125) to win 0.75 units
3. Mil (-170) to win 1 unit
4. SF (-145) to win 1.4 units

***Results from July 4***

1. Wash RL (+125) risk 1 unit....................lose 1 unit
2. TB (-150) to win 1.5 units.....................lose 2.25 units
3. CHW (-150) to win 1 unit.....................win 1 unit
4. Tex RL (+100) risk 0.75 units....................win 0.75 units
5. SF (-200) to win 0.5 units........................lose 1 unit
6. Atl (-130) to win 1.5 units.......................win 1.5 units
7. Phi (+100) risk 0.5 units........................win 0.5 units

Total for July 4: 4-3, -0.50 units

Overall SU System Record: 54-52, -3.34 units

***Notes***

The day started off rough but finished strong.  Too bad the Natinals couldn't win by two for us.  Just a small loss after the dust settled so let's pick it back up for Tuesday.

Good luck,

Leprechaun

Wednesday, July 6 MLB Series System Picks

1. TB (+115) risk 1.2 units
2. CHW (-140) to win 0.5 units
3. Mil (-150) to win 1.5 units
4. SF (-150) to win 1.2 units
5. Special parlay SF (-150)/TB (+115): 1 unit to win 2.56 units

***Results from July 5***

1. TB (-110) to win 2 units............................lose 2.2 units
2. Wash (-125) to win 0.75 units...................win 0.75 units
3. Mil (-170) to win 1 unit.........................lose 1.7 units (line dropped big after I played this for some reason)
4. SF (-145) to win 1.4 units.....................lose 2.03 units

Total for July 5: 1-3, -5.18 units

Overall SU System Record: 55-55, -8.52 units

***Notes***

A devastating day for the system with two big losses.  The curse of the week before All Star break seems to strike again.  We have been on a solid run...if SF and TB can avoid sweeps, we'll get enough back to make this dent manageable.  I should mention another strategy I use...not for official plays, but just an idea for your own strategy when sports betting.  Often, when I'm in a situation with many units on the line and more than 3 plays, I will make a very small RR parlay of 2's and 3's on the otherside for insurance.  I did this yesterday and actually ended up with a small profit on the day.  This is only something I recommend for the ultra conservative bettor.  I haven't tracked it, but I'd say I've come out ahead using this strategy over the past couple years.  Let's get our wins today and try to get this system in the black where it belongs.

Good luck,

Leprechaun

Thursday, July 7 MLB Series System Picks

1. Boston (-155) to win 0.75 units
2. Tex (-130) to win 1.2 units (ominous reminder of this week last year)
3. CHW (-150) to win 0.75 units
4. Hou (+120) risk 0.5 units
5. Mil (-115) to win 1 unit
6. SF (-115) to win 0.5 units

***Results from July 6***

1. TB (+115) risk 1.2 units...........................win 1.38 units
2. CHW (-140) to win 0.5 units...................lose 0.7 units
3. Mil (-150) to win 1.5 units....................win 1.5 units
4. SF (-150) to win 1.2 units...........................win 1.2 units
5. Special parlay SF (-150)/TB (+115): 1 unit to win 2.56 units.................win 2.56 units

Total for July 6: 4-1, +5.94 units

Overall SU System Record: 59-56, -2.58 units

***Notes***

Bounced right back!  Nice.  Took SF quite a few innings to get it done but it doesn't matter when you score 'em.  We're back on track for this week and have a good shot once again at getting into the black.  Very good considering where we started after that first week.  We are staying conservative for the next few days but we'll try to move forward nonetheless.

Good luck,

Leprechaun

Friday, July 8 MLB Series System Picks

1. CHW (-155) to win 1 unit
2. Pit (-120) to win 0.75 units
3. Wash (-130) to win 1.3 units
4. SF (-135) to win 0.75 units

***Results from July 7***

1. Boston (-155) to win 0.75 units..............win 0.75 units
2. Tex (-130) to win 1.2 units.....................win 1.2 units
3. CHW (-150) to win 0.75 units.................lose 1.13 units
4. Hou (+120) risk 0.5 units.....................lose 0.5 units
5. Mil (-115) to win 1 unit.........................win 1 unit
6. SF (-115) to win 0.5 units.......................win 0.5 units

Total for July 7: 4-2, +1.45 units

Overall SU System Record: 63-58, -1.13 units

***Notes***

Inching forward each day.  Not bad for a system that was down 20 units a month ago.  No reason we shouldn't get into positive numbers in another few days.  Still trying to stay a little conservative with the all star break looming.

Good luck,

Leprechaun