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MLB 2015 parlay systems

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Prospect
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Posted: #126
Cool, thanks. I've been doing really well with the early games so far, but I was off last night and for some reason didn't check to see when the games start. One thing I haven't been able to get into yet is over unders, so I appreciate the recommendation. Thanks dude. I'll never do this again... hopefully. Lol
 
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Posted: #127
For the trackers who used the sheet posted, I updated the link eliminating system 4 from the record.
 
Captain
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Posted: #128

Wednesday results:

SYS 1, gm 6: Oak +100 and Cin +115, $120 to win $396 - Loss

SYS 2, gm 2: LAA -113 and KC -119, $20 to win $49.38 - Loss

SYS 3, gm 3: Mil/STL o7 -110 and ChiSox/Cle u7.5 -120, $30 to win $75 - Loss

Totals:

  • Sys 1: -203.14
  • Sys 2: -45.49
  • Sys 3: +100.07
  • Total -148.56
Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
Captain
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Posted: #129

Thursday - Time to end this bad streak.

SYS 1, gm 7, TB -101 and Miami +104, $180 to win $550.76

SYS 2, gm 3, STL -142 and KC -120, $30 to win $63.73

SYS 3, gm 4: AZ/SF u6.5 -110 and Phi/Was o6.5 -110, $50 to win $132.23

Totals:

  • Sys 1: -203.14
  • Sys 2: -45.49
  • Sys 3: +100.07
  • Total -148.56
Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
Prospect
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Posted: #130
yesterday was horrendous all around. i'm chalking it up to just a bad day. let's get this. bol!
 
Rookie
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Posted: #131
the way i see it is that if each of these systems hits at a rate of 13% then we should make a relatively healthy profit, therefor days like yesterday are going to be more of the norm.  its all a numbers game from my point of view. correct me if im wrong dan
 
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Posted: #132

Quote Originally Posted by traderjoe13:

the way i see it is that if each of these systems hits at a rate of 13% then we should make a relatively healthy profit, therefor days like yesterday are going to be more of the norm.  its all a numbers game from my point of view. correct me if im wrong dan

You are correct. I just get nervous when we get to game 6 and above. I especially don't like to be the cause of anyone losing money.

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
Prospect
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Posted: #133
Quote Originally Posted by traderjoe13:

the way i see it is that if each of these systems hits at a rate of 13% then we should make a relatively healthy profit, therefor days like yesterday are going to be more of the norm.  its all a numbers game from my point of view. correct me if im wrong dan

Exactly what I was going to say.  I got lucky on system one because I have been playing Dan's NHL version with a slight twist.  I am taking the two lowest odds dogs that are plus money (no -102 dogs...+100 is lowest).  I had WAS and COL yesterday.

However, as stated before, bad days like yesterday will be common, but if we stick with it, I believe that we will come out ahead at the end.

Thanks again for your hard work Dan!
 
Prospect
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Posted: #134
Quote Originally Posted by flwareagle:


I am taking the two lowest odds dogs that are plus money (no -102 dogs...+100 is lowest).  I had WAS and COL yesterday.

That should say two lowest odds ROAD dogs.
 
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Posted: #135
I won all my system games NOT in a parlay. I missed a couple of the early plays so i matched what Dan stated with a couple of other games i thought was good. No luck.
 
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Posted: #136
I enjoy checking in on this thread, Danrules24. I find it interesting and I find myself rooting for you even if I don't bet these. And sometimes I do lol.  Good luck to you and those that follow. I must say, though, that you should be getting much better money on that Miami/ TB parlay, if only because those two teams are going to win on the same day about 5 times this season lol just kidding.
 
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Posted: #137

Quote Originally Posted by casheasy:

I enjoy checking in on this thread, Danrules24. I find it interesting and I find myself rooting for you even if I don't bet these. And sometimes I do lol.  Good luck to you and those that follow. I must say, though, that you should be getting much better money on that Miami/ TB parlay, if only because those two teams are going to win on the same day about 5 times this season lol just kidding.

As long as today is one of them.

 

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
Captain
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Posted: #138

I can't hit a thing, just fade all my posts.

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
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Posted: #139
Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

I can't hit a thing, just fade all my posts.


Nope. Won't do it. Your chase systems are tough to stomach, yet durable.  Better luck tomorrow.  I'll say this....I was watching the Marlins game and couldn't believe how every single inning their pitchers would blow the advantages they had gained.  
 
Prospect
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Posted: #140
Think the lines aren't right to get the consistency & value you wanted from the parlays?  Starting from day 1 of the season can sometimes mean the teams/lines aren't accurate & consistent enough for a parlay chase system.  I think things will get better!  Stick with it & we'll look back and laugh about this slow start!
 
Captain
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Posted: #141

Thursday results:

SYS 1, gm 7, TB -101 and Miami +104, $180 to win $550.76 - Loss

SYS 2, gm 3, STL -142 and KC -120, $30 to win $63.73- Loss

SYS 3, gm 4: AZ/SF u6.5 -110 and Phi/Was o6.5 -110, $50 to win $132.23 - Loss

Totals:

  • Sys 1: -383.14
  • Sys 2: -75.49
  • Sys 3: +50.07
  • Total -408.56

I don't even want to pick a system 1 game Friday. The 2 lowest dogs right now are Milwaukee (worst record in baseball and just lost Gomez) and Houston vs LAA. Not thriled about that.

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
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Posted: #142
For what minimal it's worth Dan I'm off to a rough start with my personal systems.. just gotta stay true to the course.. only the beginning, long way to go yet. 

One day at a time.. just need to wether the current frustration and maintain a clear mind after each loss.
 
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Posted: #143
Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

Thursday results:

SYS 1, gm 7, TB -101 and Miami +104, $180 to win $550.76 - Loss

SYS 2, gm 3, STL -142 and KC -120, $30 to win $63.73- Loss

SYS 3, gm 4: AZ/SF u6.5 -110 and Phi/Was o6.5 -110, $50 to win $132.23 - Loss

Totals:

  • Sys 1: -383.14
  • Sys 2: -75.49
  • Sys 3: +50.07
  • Total -408.56

I don't even want to pick a system 1 game Friday. The 2 lowest dogs right now are Milwaukee (worst record in baseball and just lost Gomez) and Houston vs LAA. Not thriled about that.


Then don't, simple as that.  Wait for something you like better, lots of season left and nobody is forcing you to make a play.


 
Prospect
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Posted: #144
for what it's worth, i see KC -102 and SD 100. but i agree, it doesn't look like a very good day.

so, question: i've been using sagarin ratings to play underdogs, and i wondered if anyone else uses it. because the ratings aren't (as far as i know) archived daily, to begin the season i used the info through the end of last year. in the last couple of days i started looking at this year's info.

the first 7 days using last year's info were great, and the last 4 days not so much, while the last 4 days using this year's info have been 50%.

has anyone actually used the system and tracked it? i'd feel a lot more comfortable with the 6 picks i see today if i had some historical basis for it. thanks for any help you can give. i appreciate it.

we can survive this rough patch. i'll be going conservatively today though, for sure. good luck to everyone.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #145
Dan, you have been running really good lately with last year's MLB parlay systems and this year's NHL systems.  You were due to hit a rough stretch (as all system and handicap bettors both do).  We need to just ride it out and trust that the systems will perform positively for the duration of the season.

Keep the faith....I still have the faith.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #146
Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

You are correct. I just get nervous when we get to game 6 and above. I especially don't like to be the cause of anyone losing money.


Dan, you ain't twisting anyone's arm here.  By all accounts you've set some pretty high goals for this mlb season.  You've done some pretty good backtesting and now you're running with it.  This is good fun whether one is fading, tailing, or just watching.  Keep your focus and everything should pan out.  Keep posting buddy.  Let's see how it fares.  There's a whole lot more season left...GL
 
Captain
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Posted: #147

Friday - I almost went with SD and Wash -1.5 RL on system 1.

SYS 1, No play

SYS 2, gm 4, Det -165 and Wash -1.5 RL +101, $50 to win $111.41

SYS 3, gm 5: SD/Cubs o7.5 -110 and Bos/Bal o8.5 -120, $80 to win $200

Totals:

  • Sys 1: -383.14
  • Sys 2: -75.49
  • Sys 3: +50.07
  • Total -408.56
Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
Captain
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Posted: #148

Friday results

SYS 1, No play

SYS 2, gm 4, Det -165 and Wash -1.5 RL +101, $50 to win $111.41 - Win

SYS 3, gm 5: SD/Cubs o7.5 -110 and Bos/Bal o8.5 -120, $80 to win $200 - Loss

Totals:

  • Sys 1: -383.14
  • Sys 2: +35.92
  • Sys 3: -29.93
  • Total -377.15
Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
Rookie
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Posts: 538
Posted: #149
I know the system's not doing so hot at the present moment, but great job continuing to post.

Here's my two cents: If I were you, I would consider adding some parameters to system 1 to make things a little more consistent. It's easy to get caught up in the moment in the late stages of a Chase system (it's even logical), but we made a conscious decision to play them knowing this would happen. Having some guided parameters helps one accept the ups and downs a little better.

Here are mine for System 1: give preference to teams in the RPI top 15 and avoid starting pitchers in the Sagarin Top 20. Avoid playing teams on losing streaks and fading teams on winning streaks.

You probably already have some so this advice might be worthless. Haha, but anyway, great job and keep going.
 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #150
     Always better when the blame lies with the system not oneself haha. In all seriousness I'm with you Beefman. As for Dan, I still have faith that this system will be up units by the end of the system season. Dont lose confidence you had a great pick with system #2 yesterday.

     Now I don't mean to overcomplicate things.. I'm sure you know what your doing better than I do, but have you considered playing RL's for dogs in system #1 to get out of a chase? Moreover, if you are deep in two chases like now for instance, just an example for today's first game, would it make sense to say take Phi +1.5 -150 (juicy late in the system I know) for one game in system #1, while taking a team total on the other side (Was 4o -110) as one game in system #3. Both could hit, but hey obviously both could lose as well. Just my input. 

Thanks for posting Dan and BOL
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