I got hammered today. I knew that juice above 240 was a high risk play. I want to keep track of juice higher than 240. I've marked all gamesover 240 and 3 of the 4 were winners. I need more data than a month or two. At the end of the season I will tally up the individual wins vs the juice and see where we end up.
Fortunately, tonight I hedged with Texas OVER 7.5 and it looks like Boston is going to close out with a win. Chasing Philly tomorrow.
BETTOR2WIN MLB RPI SYSTEM2011 Record 66 - 1 - 0
2010 Record 74 - 1 - 0
2009 Record 76 - 2 - 0
A Game Wins: 44
"A" games are first bets won
B Game Wins: 17
"B" games mean you lost your "A" bet and you need to double up on that team that lost.
C Game Wins: 5
"C" games mean you have lost both A and B and need to triple up on that team to make money on them.
Unofficial Plays: 13 - 0
SYSTEM
The premise here is simple. Good teams Beat bad teams more often than bad teams beat good teams. This a chase system.
Please read first page of this Post to understand the system completely. And read this page too.
MLB RPI system in a nutshell. The RPI tends to tighten as the season progresses, so post all star game I use different numbers.
1. This is a series chase. I DO NOT chase after a 3rd straight loss in a 4 game series. IDK why, but I don't. You can if you like.
2. How to pick series. Pre all star game: check the upcoming series. We will use tomorrows games/series as an example. Check the ESPN RPI rankings.
If any team is the visiting team and has an RPI of over 50 points or more over the home team they are playing, take the visiting team for a series chase.
If any team is the home team and they have an RPI of 42 points or more than the visiting team, take the home team for a series chase.
FILTERS
1. If the lower RPI has been playing significantly better baseball over the last week or so, do not play the series.
2. Losing streaks. Big losing streaks by better RPI team, don't play series.
3. Teams going in obvious opposite directions in the W/L column, I will take the series even if off a Point or max 2 on the RPI.
4. Injuries. Watch how the teams play for a few days then decide to take a series if a good player has been hurt. The Angels lost Kendry Morales and went on a 10 game winning streak last year. Go figure, so watch.Another note, in a 4 game series, if, and ONLY if the team you bet on for the series wins the FIRST game of a four game series, start the series over the next day as a new series. Basically, we would be banking they will win one of the next 3 as well.
5. Teams bellow the .500 mark need to be evaluated before a play is created.
JUICE
This system does come with some juice, but remember a WIN is WIN. Use LABBY and MARTINGALE ...depended on the outcome of a four game series. First game. LABBY will make up for losses, so I advise using the LABBY. Also, with the high juice in this system, you can only play one other system.
RPI VALUE
VISITOR = 40 - 42 RPI (depending on strength)
HOME = 35 RP
July 4 - PITTSBURGH - 132 (41) WIN
July 5 - WASHINGTON -124 - (36) WIN
July 6 - PITTSBURGH -115 - (??) WIN
July 7 - BOSTON -154 - (H41 "A" Game) WIN
July 8 - BOSTON -198 - (H41 "B" Game) WIN
July 9 - ALL STAR BREAK
July 12 - PITTSBURGH +100 (44) WIN
July 18 - BOSTON -134 (V52) WIN
July 18 - PHILADELPHIA -185 (V66) LOSS
July 18 - SAN FRANCISCO -127 (H32) WIN
July 18 - WASHINGTON -113 UNOFFICIAL WIN
July 19 - PHILADELPHIA -155 (V69 B GAME) WIN
July 22 - BOSTON -136 (H50 A GAME) WIN
July 22 - YANKEES -172 (H43 A GAME) WIN
July 22 - PHILADELPHIA -185 (H55 A GAME) WIN
July 22 - TAMPA BAY -102 (V42 A GAME) LOSS
July 23 - PHILADELPHIA -137 (H55 A GAME) WIN
July 23 - SAN FRANCISCO -134 ("B" GAME) UNOFFICIAL WIN
July 23 - TAMPA BAY -118 ("B" GAME) LOSS
July 24 - TAMPA BAY -102 ("C" GAME) WIN
July 25 - YANKEES -190 (H56 "A" GAME) WIN
*July 25 - BOSTON -270 (H61 "A" GAME) LOSS
July 25 - ST. LOUIS -230 (V46 "A" GAME) WIN
July 26 - BOSTON -175 (H61 "B" GAME) WIN
July 29 - YANKEES -190 (H47 "A" GAME) LOSS
*July 29 - PHILADELPHIA -270 (H41 "A" GAME) WIN
July 29 - MILWAUKEE -176 (H54 "A" GAME) WIN
July 29 - BOSTON +100 (V42 "A" GAME) LOSS
July 30 - YANKEES -220 (H54 "B" GAME) WIN
July 30 - BOSTON -150 (V42 "B" GAME) WIN
*Aug 01 - PHILADELPHIA -270 (H44 "A" GAME) WIN
Aug 06 - MILWAUKEE -208 (H52 "A" GAME) WIN
Aug 08 - BOSTON -113 (V48 "A" GAME) WIN
Aug 08 - ARIZONA -180 (H51 "A" GAME) LOSS
Aug 08 - PHILADELPHIA -159 (V56 "A" GAME) WIN
Aug 09 - ARIZONA -187 (H51 "A" GAME) WIN
Aug 12 - ATLANTA -136 (H43 "A" GAME) WIN
*Aug 12 - PHILADELPHIA -267 (H46 "A" GAME) LOSS
Aug 12 - BOSTON -145 (V46 "A" GAME) PENDING