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MLB Runs Scored/Runs Against

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Posted: #26
I automated the above 2 parlays (daily top 2 RSRA and Game A top ML) onto my spreadsheet.  Some stats:
Daily Top 2 RSRA:
Total plays: 42
Wins on X: 5 of 16 
Wins on 2X: 4 of 11
Wins on 3X: 2 of 7
Wins on 5X: 2 of 5
Wins on 8X: 3 of 3
Wins on 12X: No Plays
Wins on 18X: No Plays
Wins on 25X: No Plays
Run Line
Wins on X: 2 of 12
Wins on 2X: 3 of 10
Wins on 3X: 2 of 7
Wins on 5X: 1 of 5
Wins on 8X: 1 of 4
Wins on 12X: 2 of 3
Wins on 18X: 1 of 1
Wins on 25X: No Plays
 
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Posted: #27
Game A Top Money Line
Total plays: 17
Wins on X: 6 of 9 
Wins on 2X: 1 of 3
Wins on 3X: 0 of 2
Wins on 5X: 1 of 2
Wins on 8X: 1 of 1
Wins on 12X: No Plays
Wins on 18X: No Plays
Wins on 25X: No Plays
Run Line
Wins on X: 3 of 6
Wins on 2X: 1 of 3
Wins on 3X: 0 of 2
Wins on 5X: 1 of 2
Wins on 8X: 0 of 1
Wins on 12X: 0 of 1
Wins on 18X: 0 of 1
Wins on 25X: 1 of 1
 
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Posted: #28
****Below based on $1.00 as one unit/"X"

Daily Top 2 RSRA: $31.60
Daily Top 2 RSRA (RL Plays): $126.54

Game A Top Money Line: $6.40
Game A Top Money Line (RL Plays): $15.49

The above plays are from May 21st to July 2nd.

All plays are currently at X (your standard unit), with the parlays CLE/CIN and CLE/LAD both winning.  The 25X cleared with the CLE/LAD
 
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Posted: #29

Provided Bos and Hou both hold on and win tonight, Daily Top 2 will have won 5 straight parlays (first being the Cle/Cin win in last post).  Run line will be 2-3, with tonight being a win on the 5X.

Top Game A ML last night won...Hou/Was, lost on RL.  I use Cover's final lines for plays but it looks like Bos/Cle were the play, each with high odds.  Cle has already won ML and RL, Bos looking the same.  RL would be a win on 2X.

At the moment, because of an up and down June, these are the only plays I'm making.

 
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Posted: #30
I backtested last year's NHL season on the NHL version of RSRA Top 2 Daily parlay system.
https://www.covers.com/forum/ViewThread/102543013/nhl-betting-system-goal-scored-and-allowed-systems/10
Posts#237/238
 
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Posted: #31
****Below based on $1.00 as one unit/"X"

Daily Top 2 RSRA: $31.60
Daily Top 2 RSRA (RL Plays): $126.54

The above plays are from May 21st to July 2nd.

Daily Top 2 RSRA: $43.34
Daily Top 2 RSRA (RL Plays): $140.72

The above plays are from May 21st to July 14th.

ML +11.74 units, RL +14.18 in 12 days. The take home on one ML day was less than a unit.                                                                                                                       
 
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Posted: #32
YTD: All plays daily, no chase,

System ML W/L ML $$$ RL W/L RL $$$
RSRA 417 - 333 ($21.66) 309 - 441 ($51.22)


YTD: All plays chased, starting on "A" game of a series (ML only).

Chase "A" "A" "B" "B" "C" "C" Total
RSRA 130 - 82 $22.21 48 - 34 $14.98 21 - 13 $53.81 $90.99 


 
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Posted: #33
Parlays, chased X (your unit), 2X, 3X, 5X, 8X, 12X, 18X, 25X

Daily Top 2 RSRA: $45.34 
Daily Top 2 RSRA (RL Plays): $144.87 
(Both ML and RL are at X)

Game A Top Money Line: $10.16 
Game A Top Money Line (RL Plays): $7.09 
(Parlayed only on Game A, currently next play would be a 2X for ML and 8X for RL)

The above plays are from May 21st to July 18.

 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:

Daily Top 2 RSRA
Total plays: 55
Wins on X: 14 of 27 
Wins on 2X: 6 of 13
Wins on 3X: 2 of 7
Wins on 5X: 2 of 5
Wins on 8X: 3 of 3
Wins on 12X: No Plays
Wins on 18X: No Plays
Wins on 25X: No Plays
Run Line
Wins on X: 4 of 18
Wins on 2X: 5 of 14
Wins on 3X: 3 of 9
Wins on 5X: 2 of 6
Wins on 8X: 1 of 4
Wins on 12X: 2 of 3
Wins on 18X: 1 of 1
Wins on 25X: No Plays
 
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Posted: #35
Post #34 is YTD.  I will be tracking GAME A Top ML, but I won't be posting stats any longer on the thread.
 
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Posted: #36

Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:

Post #34 is YTD.  I will be tracking GAME A Top ML, but I won't be posting stats any longer on the thread.

I won't be tracking GAME A Top ML. I cleaned up my spreadsheet of systems that weren't cutting it, and this was one of them.  If I'm not going to play it, why bother, esp if the other is doing 10 times as well.

 
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Posted: #37

Daily Top 2 RSRA: $49.52  

Daily Top 2 RSRA (RL Plays): $156.22  

(Both ML and RL are at X)

 
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Posted: #38
Overall:
System ML W/L ML $$$ RL W/L RL $$$
RSRA 504 - 409 ($38.03) 372 - 541 ($73.83)

--------------------------July---------------------------------
201 - 168 $(23.76) 148 - 221 $(46.48)

As a 3g chase:
Chase "A" "A" "B" "B" "C" "C" Total
RSRA 155 - 106 13.62 57 - 48 -16.279 29 - 18 53.40 50.74

July:
Chase "A" "A" "B" "B" "C" "C" Total
RSRA      51 - 51 -16.61 27 - 23 -16.58 14 - 8 23.02 -10.17

 
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Posted: #39
Overall (I don't have it separated by month yet.):
Daily Top 2 RSRA
Total plays: 67
Wins on X: 18 of 34 
Wins on 2X: 8 of 16
Wins on 3X: 2 of 8
Wins on 5X: 3 of 6
Wins on 8X: 3 of 3
Wins on 12X: No Plays
Wins on 18X: No Plays
Wins on 25X: No Plays
Run Line
Wins on X: 5 of 22
Wins on 2X: 6 of 17
Wins on 3X: 3 of 11
Wins on 5X: 3 of 8
Wins on 8X: 2 of 5
Wins on 12X: 2 of 3
Wins on 18X: 1 of 1
Wins on 25X: No Plays

ML: $58.11
RL: $173.38
 
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Posted: #40
Overall (I don't have it separated by month yet.):
Top 2 ML 
Total plays: 28
Wins on X: 9 of 16 
Wins on 2X: 4 of 7
Wins on 3X: 0 of 2
Wins on 5X: 1 of 2
Wins on 8X: 1 of 1
Wins on 12X: No Plays
Wins on 18X: No Plays
Wins on 25X: No Plays
Run Line
Wins on X: 3 of 9
Wins on 2X: 2 of 6
Wins on 3X: 0 of 3
Wins on 5X: 1 of 3
Wins on 8X: 0 of 2
Wins on 12X: 0 of 2
Wins on 18X: 1 of 2
Wins on 25X: 1 of 1
ML: $10.97
RL: $26.80
On both ML and RL, the next bet is on a 3X
 
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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:

I won't be tracking GAME A Top ML. I cleaned up my spreadsheet of systems that weren't cutting it, and this was one of them.  If I'm not going to play it, why bother, esp if the other is doing 10 times as well.

I changed my mind.  Another play that is in the positive, why not track it?
 
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Posted: #42
I will be combining all my threads into one, starting this October when NHL starts. I will have links to both spreadsheets (NHL and MLB) in one of the first few posts. I will just update the speadsheets yearly and resubmit to the link provided.  

I have already started on the new NHL spreadsheet.  It will give the numbers daily and give you the 2 teams for the Top 2 GSGA parlay.  You just have to update in the morning.  GSGA does better than RSRA as the formula was made for the NHL.
 
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Posted: #43
GSGA for NHL spreadsheet for 2018-19

https://drive.google.com/file/d/10aG9RE4_Oou-H4Bv6VIRsYRB7PrN4Yhq/view?usp=sharing
 
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Posted: #44

Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:

This is based on the NHL GSGA (Goals Scored Goals Against) system that I posted this past season.https://www.covers.com/postingforum/POST01/showmessage.aspx?spt=79&sub=102543013&page=2\Start on post #38 to understand how I came up with the equations.Unlike GSGA, I made a simple spreadsheet, to give to everyone that follows, easier than posting everyday.https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Pbn0Fp3YK8jzsjxbTnWZGofUuQHCmsdf/view?usp=sharingI won't be using it, as this is a small part of my personal spreadsheet.  If there is a problem, or you have questions, I will handle it in this thread.My power rankings thread will be coming soon.

I just downloaded this to prepare and adjust it for next season.  Does this thing even work and no one told me?  I just found a bad link plus I tried to update it and it didn't.

 
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Posted: #45

Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:

Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Pbn0Fp3YK8jzsjxbTnWZGofUuQHCmsdf/view?usp=sharingI won't be using it, as this is a small part of my personal spreadsheet.  If there is a problem, or you have questions, I will handle it in this thread.
I just downloaded this to prepare and adjust it for next season.  Does this thing even work and no one told me?  I just found a bad link plus I tried to update it and it didn't.

Yep, just found that I have the Covers update off, and it only updated the odds.

 
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Posted: #46

Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:

Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:

Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Pbn0Fp3YK8jzsjxbTnWZGofUuQHCmsdf/view?usp=sharing I won't be using it, as this is a small part of my personal spreadsheet.  If there is a problem, or you have questions, I will handle it in this thread.
I just downloaded this to prepare and adjust it for next season.  Does this thing even work and no one told me?  I just found a bad link plus I tried to update it and it didn't.
Yep, just found that I have the Covers update off, and it only updated the odds.

It works now. I added all the plays and numbers from my spreadsheet and it equates to the same.  I wish someone would have told me.  For 3/4 months it's been up there not working.

 

 

 
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Posted: #47

So, I just went through my spreadsheet and on my personal plays, I went through and posted if I played the RSRA, Top 2 Parlay or used my own handicapping skills.  Yep, that's why I'm a mailman and not a shark!!  I've lost approximately 16 units on straight ML plays and about 25 units on parlays (since May 28th...before that I had no direction and tanked to almost 30 units in a month for all plays). I'm not counting Run Line plays.  I have all RL plays grouped together, RSRA teams or not.

Using just RSRA and Top 2, I'm up 35 units on ML (since May 28th, not always chasing) and Top 2 Parlay ML (chasing properly the 1x, 2x, 3x, 5x, 8x, 12x, 18x, and 25x) and 60 units on Top 2 Parlay RL (again chasing properly).  The parlays are since July 2nd.

 
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Posted: #48
Question for the those who know more than me. 

I have a vague idea what ROI is and I'm looking to put it on my spreadsheet.  

I'm figuring ROI like this:
Profit divided by the cost of investment — or the amount of money I put at risk.

With the Top 2 RSRA  Parlay chase, using $1.00 as a unit, if I were to go on a 3 game losing streak (currently, actually)...would the "cost of investment" be $3.00...3 being the original unit, or $6.00, with 6 being the actual total wagered? I am currently using 6, because that is what is actually wagered.

The ROI so far for Top 2 RSRA parlay (ML) is 35.4%, $153 risked, with $54.23 in profit (again 3g losing streak)

The ROI so far for Top 2 RSRA parlay (RL) is 112.6%, $153 risked, with $172.20 in profit (again 3g losing streak)

Is this the correct calculation?
 
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Posted: #49
I was able to figure out formulas to get the previous RSRA number, thus I was able to get the TOP 2 RSRA parlays.  I will even be able to back test it. 
From April 16th:

Top 2 RSRA
Total plays: 109 (W/L)
Wins on X: 27 - 29 
Wins on 2X: 16 - 13
Wins on 3X: 6 - 7
Wins on 5X: 4 - 3
Wins on 8X: 3 - 0
Wins on 12X: No Plays
Wins on 18X: No Plays
Wins on 25X: No Plays
Run Line
Wins on X: 4 - 27
Wins on 2X: 8 - 18
Wins on 3X: 4 - 14
Wins on 5X: 5 - 9
Wins on 8X: 3 - 6
Wins on 12X: 3 - 3
Wins on 18X: 2 - 1
Wins on 25X: 0 - 1

ML: $107.98 per $1.00 unit
RL: $205.16 per $1.00 unit
 
 
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Posted: #50

Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:

The ROI so far for Top 2 RSRA parlay (ML) is 35.4%, $153 risked, with $54.23 in profit (again 3g losing streak)The ROI so far for Top 2 RSRA parlay (RL) is 112.6%, $153 risked, with $172.20 in profit (again 3g losing streak)

I was wrong on the ROI for RL parlays, I had it based off of ML's unit wager not the RLs.  To update with last night's ML and RL wins, and me going back and getting the plays back to April 16th (a good starting point), the numbers are:

ML: 212 units wagered, for 107.98 unit profit, 50.9% ROI

RL: 430 units wagered, for 205.16 unit profit, 47.7% ROI

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