The difference between your and my plays is the -110 and +175 filters. Fade COL was not a play for me today as PHI was a favorite of less then -110. For me, G4 will be a play tomorrow.
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the 5 Run Chase is struggling this year.
The difference between your and my plays is the -110 and +175 filters. Fade COL was not a play for me today as PHI was a favorite of less then -110. For me, G4 will be a play tomorrow.
The difference between your and my plays is the -110 and +175 filters. Fade COL was not a play for me today as PHI was a favorite of less then -110. For me, G4 will be a play tomorrow.
Yeah, it's not doing so hot at the moment. And I saw that - your filters prevailed once again. That's two losses here that could have (possibly) been avoided. One day I'll learn to listen to people with more experience. Haha
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Quote Originally Posted by Bart_:
the 5 Run Chase is struggling this year.
The difference between your and my plays is the -110 and +175 filters. Fade COL was not a play for me today as PHI was a favorite of less then -110. For me, G4 will be a play tomorrow.
Yeah, it's not doing so hot at the moment. And I saw that - your filters prevailed once again. That's two losses here that could have (possibly) been avoided. One day I'll learn to listen to people with more experience. Haha
Well, we take a step forward then a step back. Shout to the Phillies for sucking.
I've made some final changes to my strategy that I will stick to the for the rest of the season - whether they work or not. If this thing doesn't turn out to be profitable, it will at least be a nice learning experience.
Out of the 4 systems, I'm only going to play series that I REALLY like on a chase - with a goal to win 30 units. Preference will be given to chasing top 15/ fading bottom 15 RPI teams, and playing/ avoiding hot and cold teams. Everything else will be played on a single-line labby - with each subsystem getting its own line. I have a 10 unit goal for the Home fade, 5 run win chase, and 5 run loss chase, and a 15 unit goal for On3's system (given that there are more plays).
I'm also running what I call a "Recovery System" on Twitter that involves playing heavy odds plays - whose losses would be similar to that of a chase system. The goal is to win 15 units, and plays will come from tennis, the NBA finals, and NHL finals. I did this last summer and won 10 units. All winnings will go in my bank for MLB.
Again, there's no guarantee that any of this will work - and given this season's track record, that might be the most likely scenario - so tail with caution.
Today
A Boston fade +1.5
A St. Louis
Labby
A Dbacks fade (1.08 to win 1.00)
A Colorado fade (2.05 to win 1.00)
A Red Sox (4.89 to win 3.00)
A Angels (4.74 to win 3.00)
YTD Chase Record: 80-3 (2 pending)
Unit count:-25.08
A. 45-41
B. 25-15
C. 7-7
D. 3-3
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Well, we take a step forward then a step back. Shout to the Phillies for sucking.
I've made some final changes to my strategy that I will stick to the for the rest of the season - whether they work or not. If this thing doesn't turn out to be profitable, it will at least be a nice learning experience.
Out of the 4 systems, I'm only going to play series that I REALLY like on a chase - with a goal to win 30 units. Preference will be given to chasing top 15/ fading bottom 15 RPI teams, and playing/ avoiding hot and cold teams. Everything else will be played on a single-line labby - with each subsystem getting its own line. I have a 10 unit goal for the Home fade, 5 run win chase, and 5 run loss chase, and a 15 unit goal for On3's system (given that there are more plays).
I'm also running what I call a "Recovery System" on Twitter that involves playing heavy odds plays - whose losses would be similar to that of a chase system. The goal is to win 15 units, and plays will come from tennis, the NBA finals, and NHL finals. I did this last summer and won 10 units. All winnings will go in my bank for MLB.
Again, there's no guarantee that any of this will work - and given this season's track record, that might be the most likely scenario - so tail with caution.
Because this has already morphed kinda far from my original strategy, I'm gonna include the Recovery Plays here as well. Yesterday was Djokovic to win. Tomorrow will be a prop: Nadal not to win in 3 sets.
Today
C Indians fade +1.5
B Detroit
B St. Louis
A Boston fade +1.5
Labby
A Washington (4.65 to win 3)
A Boston (5.1 to win 3)
A San Fran (1.05 to win 1)
YTD Chase Record: 83-3 (3 pending)
Recovery Plays: 1-0
Unit count: -19.08
A. 48-42
B. 25-15
C. 7-7
D. 3-3
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Because this has already morphed kinda far from my original strategy, I'm gonna include the Recovery Plays here as well. Yesterday was Djokovic to win. Tomorrow will be a prop: Nadal not to win in 3 sets.
This series was a hold-over from before implementing my new strategy, so I don't feel that bad about it. Still, a bit of luck would be nice every now and then.
There's still a chance to hustle out about 40 units profit with my current strategy and goals, so I'll keep chugging along. One more series loss will make this a less-than-profitable venture, so let's hope that doesn't happen.
Today
A Mets +1.5
Labby
A White Sox fade +1.5 (1.9 to win 1)
A Royals (4.51 to win 3)
B Cincinnatti fade +1.5 (5.94 to win 2.7)
C San Fran (3.47 to win 2.48)
Recovery Plays
Tennis prop: Djokovic +1.5 sets (to win 1.00)
YTD Chase Record: 89-4 (3 pending)
Recovery plays: 3-0
Unit count: -41.98
A. 52-45
B. 26-17
C. 8-8
D. 3-4
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And the hits keep coming.
This series was a hold-over from before implementing my new strategy, so I don't feel that bad about it. Still, a bit of luck would be nice every now and then.
There's still a chance to hustle out about 40 units profit with my current strategy and goals, so I'll keep chugging along. One more series loss will make this a less-than-profitable venture, so let's hope that doesn't happen.
Moving the Mets chase to a labby line. I'm applying some strict filters to the rest of the chases I play:
1.) Of the 4 games in the chase, all must be tailing a top 10 RPI playing a bottom 10 RPI team.
2.) Of the 4 games in the chase, all must be tailing a team in the top 15 of TeamRankings' last 10 games and last 5 games power ratings. They also must be in a higher place than their opponent through the four games in the chase. The purpose of this filter is to make sure the team being chased is hotter than their opponent.
These haven't been backtested - but they seem sufficient for my 30 unit chasing goal going forward. I don't believe in fate; but if a series like this loses, then a profitable season just wasn't meant to be.
Today
Labby
B Royals (4.83 to win 3)
B Washington +1.5 (2.82 to win 1.71)
A Oakland fade +1.5 (1.9 to win 1)
A Angels (1.85 to win 1.71)
YTD Chase Record: 92-4 (3 pending)
Recovery Plays: 4-0
Unit Count: -41.09
A. 53-47
B. 27-17
C. 9-8
D. 3-4
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Moving the Mets chase to a labby line. I'm applying some strict filters to the rest of the chases I play:
1.) Of the 4 games in the chase, all must be tailing a top 10 RPI playing a bottom 10 RPI team.
2.) Of the 4 games in the chase, all must be tailing a team in the top 15 of TeamRankings' last 10 games and last 5 games power ratings. They also must be in a higher place than their opponent through the four games in the chase. The purpose of this filter is to make sure the team being chased is hotter than their opponent.
These haven't been backtested - but they seem sufficient for my 30 unit chasing goal going forward. I don't believe in fate; but if a series like this loses, then a profitable season just wasn't meant to be.
Well. I think it's time to accept that this one's been a failure. I've been too desperate to win back the lost units - and I'm starting to realize that chasing ain't for me.
I'm really sorry to those who tailed.
Lessons learned:
1.) stick to system rules. Three of the losses here were caused by my own personal errors (I.e.. Failure to skip two games after a series and the -110 filter). It's hard to beat the books as it is - don't add any modifications to a working system unless they've been back tested.
2.) Know yourself. If you can't tell by now, I have a tendency to vacillate. The risks of Chase betting make me kind of desperate, and each loss makes me want to change my strategy. Therefore, I'm going to (attempt) to avoid chasing in the future and stick with the less volatile method of labby lines.
--
Because I'm a glutton for punishment, I will continue to run the system using Labby Lines on my Twitter and see how the season finishes out.
Follow if you'd like, but you'd probably be better avoiding lol.
Best of luck to all going forward.
- Beef
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Well. I think it's time to accept that this one's been a failure. I've been too desperate to win back the lost units - and I'm starting to realize that chasing ain't for me.
I'm really sorry to those who tailed.
Lessons learned:
1.) stick to system rules. Three of the losses here were caused by my own personal errors (I.e.. Failure to skip two games after a series and the -110 filter). It's hard to beat the books as it is - don't add any modifications to a working system unless they've been back tested.
2.) Know yourself. If you can't tell by now, I have a tendency to vacillate. The risks of Chase betting make me kind of desperate, and each loss makes me want to change my strategy. Therefore, I'm going to (attempt) to avoid chasing in the future and stick with the less volatile method of labby lines.
--
Because I'm a glutton for punishment, I will continue to run the system using Labby Lines on my Twitter and see how the season finishes out.
Follow if you'd like, but you'd probably be better avoiding lol.
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