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MLB system releases...

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Posted: #626
[Quote: Originally Posted by sports_Network]
 
MLB system releases Thursday 06/11/09
 
Mariners+155  top dog** ....win +8units
 
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Posted: #627
8 dogs cash...Thursday O6/11/09 .....16 BTB
 
CHW+107
CLE+130
SEA+155
BOS+140
PIT+155
HOU+138
COL+170
PHI+110
 
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Posted: #628
                                       Friday, June 12th, 2009
 
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Posted: #629
MLB system releases Friday 06/12/09 Base_Runs formula.....
 
Rays-110 RL
BlueJays-120 RL
Yankees+105 RL
RedSox+130 RL
Giants-145
Diamondbacks+110 RL
Rockies+175 RL
 
seven pac
 
 
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Posted: #630
MLB system releases Friday O6/12/09
 
Dodgers+140 top dog ***
 
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Posted: #631
SN,
 
WIth so few career stats to compare pitchers vs. batters, how do you handicap interleague games?  The only real trend I noticed is that you are backing all home teams and mostly stud pitchers, but I can't imagine you are doing too many BR or RC calculations this weekend.
 
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Posted: #632
 GL Kemosabe
 
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Posted: #633
Quote Originally Posted by UsaSurfer:

SN,
 
WIth so few career stats to compare pitchers vs. batters, how do you handicap interleague games?  The only real trend I noticed is that you are backing all home teams and mostly stud pitchers, but I can't imagine you are doing too many BR or RC calculations this weekend.

Good observance, based on the differentials in inter-league play, I have altered my form.. I am using Runs Expectancy matrix / Runs Frequency matrix, with the iniciation of a Linear Weights Generator, innovated by Andrew Dolphin, applied to MLB stats, as a 'tool' for handicapping inter-league games/P+DH/

The complete formula is explained in detail, and in-depth, go to.... tangotiger.net/markov.html .....click..Book. then surf, and research SN

 

 

 
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Posted: #634
usaSurfer;  then go to   fangraphs.com  Win Probability matrix/ to conclude....SN
 
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Posted: #635
 There seems to be alot of Amer.League and Unders in Interleague.
 
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Posted: #636
Awesome, I will spend a few hours with those articles this afternoon.
 
Last question today.......Do you find that interleague is a harder project to conquer based on the contrasting leagues and the lack of stats?  Or do you think that baseball teams are baseball teams and it is no more difficult to handicap interleague than intra-league.
 
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Posted: #637
Quote Originally Posted by ApacheM:

 There seems to be alot of Amer.League and Unders in Interleague.

Correct, this is based on American league HOME starting pitchers

 
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Posted: #638
Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

8 dogs cash...Thursday O6/11/09 .....16 BTB
 
CHW+107
CLE+130
SEA+155
BOS+140
PIT+155
HOU+138
COL+170
PHI+110


Those picks were not posted in this thread yesterday.
 
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Posted: #639
Quote Originally Posted by UsaSurfer:

Awesome, I will spend a few hours with those articles this afternoon.
 
Last question today.......Do you find that interleague is a harder project to conquer based on the contrasting leagues and the lack of stats?  Or do you think that baseball teams are baseball teams and it is no more difficult to handicap interleague than intra-league.

Not at all.. you simply adopt an inter-league application to form, and switch formula's to RE/RF....SN

 
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Posted: #640

Quote Originally Posted by Birdman79:



Those picks were not posted in this thread yesterday.

Birdman, SN is not claiming those picks.  He is simply showing how frequently underdogs are hitting these days.

 
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Posted: #641

Quote Originally Posted by Birdman79:



Those picks were not posted in this thread yesterday.

They were posted when the results became final

 
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Posted: #642
Great day for Dogs yesterday.
 
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Posted: #643
Quote Originally Posted by JettNole:

Great day for Dogs yesterday.

ABSOLUTELY, 16 dogs cashed in two days, phenomenal

 
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Posted: #644
Birdman79, what you seek are #629 and #630 post's
 
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Posted: #645
SN,
 
I went through and read all of those articles.  Very interesting stuff.  I look forward to testing a few of these out.
 
I found this summary of the key calculations on tangotiger.  Unfortunately I think the author messed up some of the parentheses needed in his RC and LWTS calcs.  Can you clarify these for me?
 
     plus
     = 1.0 * 1b
     + 1.6 * 2b
     + 2.2 * 3b
     + 3.0 * HR
     + 0.7 * nibb
     + 0.7 * hbp
     + 0.4 * ibb
     + 0.4 * sb
     - 0.4 * cs

     minus
     = AB-H + SF + CS

     LWR = plus/minus
To convert to runs, you can use these estimators:
     RC/out = .47 * LWR  - .10
     RC     = .47 * plus - .10 * minus

     LWTS   = (.47 * LWR - .27) * minus
                   = .47 * plus - .27  * minus
 
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Posted: #646
Quote Originally Posted by UsaSurfer:

SN,
 
I went through and read all of those articles.  Very interesting stuff.  I look forward to testing a few of these out.
 
I found this summary of the key calculations on tangotiger.  Unfortunately I think the author messed up some of the parentheses needed in his RC and LWTS calcs.  Can you clarify these for me?
 
     plus
     = 1.0 * 1b
     + 1.6 * 2b
     + 2.2 * 3b
     + 3.0 * HR
     + 0.7 * nibb
     + 0.7 * hbp
     + 0.4 * ibb
     + 0.4 * sb
     - 0.4 * cs

     minus
     = AB-H + SF + CS

     LWR = plus/minus
To convert to runs, you can use these estimators:
     RC/out = .47 * LWR  - .10
     RC     = .47 * plus - .10 * minus

     LWTS   = (.47 * LWR - .27) * minus
                   = .47 * plus - .27  * minus

Go to the glossary,  it gives application through iniciated 'terms'

of mathematic formula's, this is much more simpler, than it projects...SN

 
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Posted: #647
Has anyone been keeping track as to the overall results of this system? Just wondering how it has been working out for everyone percentage wise and unit wise?
 
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Posted: #648
SN great work as usual...
 
 
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Posted: #649
SN - hard to sum the year to date with your daily picks, but where are you in W-L (breakout Dogs and Favs if possible).
 
 
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Posted: #650
[Quote: Originally Posted by sports_Network]
MLB system releases Friday 06/12/09 Base_Runs formula.....
 
Rays-110 RL...........L
BlueJays-120 RL.....L
Yankees+105 RL.....L
RedSox+130 RL......W
Giants-145..............W
Diamondbacks+110 RL....W
Rockies+175 RL............. W
 
seven pac
 
 
 
FINAL RESULTS:
4-3
units:+10.25
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