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MLB system releases...

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Posted: #1001
 GL Kemosabe
 
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Posted: #1002
SN i have added you to my friend list
 
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Posted: #1003
ApacheM
 
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AGV  received  SN
 
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MLB system releases Saturday 07/04/09 Base_Runs formula...
 
Nationals+124  5innings
Giants-160  5innings
BlueJays-118  5innings
 
Reds+105 ML
Angels-142 ML
Royals+128 ML
 
Rockies+105 RL
RedSox+102 RL
 
MIL/CHC  OVER 8.5
DET/MIN  UNDER 9
TB/TEX  OVER 10
 
 
eleven PAC formulated
projected strength: 8/11
 
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Posted: #1006

...BLACKEN1772..thanks for the commentary -  I am usually more punctual, however the holiday  has me behind a bit.

The 2 run difference in our calculations has me a bit concerned.  As Sports_network has confirmed, I am missing the application of Run Created to the calculation as a whole.   I posted the calculation for the study of those involved…and it seems I am a novice as pointed out.  My understanding is correct, but applications of both the Base_Runs and Run_Created as a unified concept seems to be  where I am lacking.

PM's are on the way..

 
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Posted: #1007
Need to be friends 1st.....SN and BLACKEN1772
 
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Posted: #1008
Quote Originally Posted by BillWag27:

Gentlemen,

I haven't added much to the thread, but here is something I have been working on.  I will use this afternoon's game between the Yankees and Indians.

1st 5 inns:
Yankees RC (Game=6.3) divide by 9 and then multiply by 5 = 3.5 runs
Indians RC (Game 5.5) divided by 9 and then multiply by 5 = 3.06 runs

**I did look into the season stats and based off of AB, Outs and Games played, each team averages approximately 27 (+/- .05) outs per game.  I realize some home teams winning may only have 24 outs in that particular game, but with the addition of extra inning games, it all averages to 27 outs for these particular teams.**

**this is the reason I chose to divide by 9.**

Yankees SP (BR=2.84) when figured into per inning and multiplied by 5, 2.82 runs
Indians SP (BR=2.94) when figured into per inning and multiplied by 5, 2.62 runs

Also, the same concept of career pitching numbers vs opp:
Yankees (RC=1.82)
Indians (RC=4.46)

I then average the two pitching numbers, then average that number by the opp teams RC.

Giving us:
Yankees = 3.52 per 5 innings
Indians = 2.69 runs per 5 innings
Total = 6.21 runs per 5 innings

Yankess 1st 5 innings -1/2 (EV)


MME - This post may  be of some assistance. - BLKN
 
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Posted: #1009
I don't wish to distract from SN's excellent work, but the 4th of July hot dogs I suggested, based on Pinny closing lines, went 4-3 for +3.36 units (based on 1 unit per play).  I'll throw this in from time to time.

Thanks for your work SN, and for maintaining such a quality thread. 
 
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Posted: #1010
Quote Originally Posted by DarkHorse21:

I don't wish to distract from SN's excellent work, but the 4th of July hot dogs I suggested, based on Pinny closing lines, went 4-3 for +3.36 units (based on 1 unit per play).  I'll throw this in from time to time.

Thanks for your work SN, and for maintaining such a quality thread. 



 
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Posted: #1011
Quote Originally Posted by agv:

SN   KREATTURE PLEASURE TALKING TO YOU GUYS  I HAVE A FEW GAMES TO CHECK OUT  TELL WHAT YOU THINK  ^ COLORADO ,HAS 5 UNDERS  ^ TORONTO, HAS 6 UNDERS  ^ KC HAS  10 UNDERS  ^ TB  HAS 6 UNDERS ALL GAMES DUE TO GO OVER  WHAT DO YOU GUYS THINK   I ALSO LOVE    MILW,  SF,  LAD,  COL, MIN,  TB, LAA


Nice job on your totals 2nite agv, sides were solid too.
 
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Posted: #1012
Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

MLB system releases Saturday 07/04/09 Base_Runs formula...
 
Nationals+124  5innings
Giants-160  5innings
BlueJays-118  5innings
 
Reds+105 ML
Angels-142 ML
Royals+128 ML
 
Rockies+105 RL
RedSox+102 RL
 
MIL/CHC  OVER 8.5
DET/MIN  UNDER 9
TB/TEX  OVER 10
 
 
eleven PAC formulated
projected strength: 8/11


Another good night sN, hitting your totals and ML's.
Too bad the RL's didn't come through.. I lost on both of them as well
 
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Posted: #1013
Quote Originally Posted by kreatture:


Home Teams on July 4th since 2006

2006  12-3
2007  8-7
2008  10-5

3 Year Total 30-15    NL 17-7   AL 13-8

Afternoon games especially seem to favor the Home teams.

BOL 



Home Teams today..

12-3

AL 6-1
NL 6-2

Unfortunately for me.. 2 of those 3 losses were by Boston and Colorado.. 2 games I was pretty heavy on.

Pretty bad afternoon/night for me.. worst I have had in about 3 weeks. Fortunately I hit big this morning on my Serena Williams Futures Bet and made some on Live Betting from my Book. Boston was a tough loss, finished the day down about 6 Units.
Overall, this is been by far the best week I have had since starting this journey just over 2 months ago.. still up +34 Units since Monday.

But damn don't I feel depressed as heck tonight for some reason.. get 'em tomorrow I guess.

Cheers   
 
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Posted: #1014
Quote Originally Posted by eganfordos69:

Since this past Sunday (6/28), SN's under picks have been 10-0! I presume this means DET-MIN should be a big play.

Hey eganfordos69! thx for the stat I had know idea myself, that was some vg totals tracking, did not review your post to after the fact, and find your assumption to be correct! DET/MIN UNDER 9...win   Make that 11-0  The real question at this point of  discussion; is what value is gained, or can be contrived from it, other than +22units that the 11 unders produced..That would be the 'key' ingredient to the stat you discovered..thank you for the contribution, and the welcomed tracking, please continue at your pace...best regards,  SN 

 
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Posted: #1015
You would have to know the long term winning percentage for overs and unders.  To simplify, let's take a small sample size of 50 under picks and presume that you hit 62%.  Having gone 11-0 to start out, you would only have to go 20-19 from here to hit 62%.
 
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Quote Originally Posted by DarkHorse21:

I don't wish to distract from SN's excellent work, but the 4th of July hot dogs I suggested, based on Pinny closing lines, went 4-3 for +3.36 units (based on 1 unit per play).  I'll throw this in from time to time.

Thanks for your work SN, and for maintaining such a quality thread. 

Bringing "dogs" to the fore-front is no distraction, believe me, they, along with "runline" play are the core of successful MLB handicapping, not only do they absorb juice, when iniciated in PAC form, they become virtually, a very low risk wager, with created value...Taking down 4 / 7 dogs is considered supreme cappin' / bringining more units to your BR than any other 4-3 wager MLB has to offer, except the RL. they are equal in this aspect...in conclusion, your added contribution on equating +3.36units based on one unit wager per play is understood as a 'scale' to display MM advantage. As we both know, one unit in baseball cappin' is extremely 'humble' the correct attachment to these 7 games should have ranged from 2 to 8units accordingly. As I am more than sure, you have done before game time. thank you for an informative post on dogs, with attachments, good job DH21  please continue, at your convenient pace....SN

 
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Posted: #1017
Quote Originally Posted by DarkHorse21:

You would have to know the long term winning percentage for overs and unders.  To simplify, let's take a small sample size of 50 under picks and presume that you hit 62%.  Having gone 11-0 to start out, you would only have to go 20-19 from here to hit 62%.

Stats don't lie, your absolutely correct, putting a capper ahead from the conception of a streak/roll adds strength to the BR, and advantage to unit application, which breeds success  SN

 
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Posted: #1018
I kind of slipped it in under the radar here.  Posted it elsewhere (slightly different numbers) https://forum.therx.com/showthread.php?t=692223 because I didn't want to distract.  I'll be happy to throw in a 'dog alert' from time to time. 

Keep up the good work, amigo! 


 
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Posted: #1019
DarkHorse21  'prosperity' 
 
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Posted: #1020
Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

Stats don't lie, your absolutely correct, putting a capper ahead from the conception of a streak/roll adds strength to the BR, and advantage to unit application, which breeds success  SN



Streaks are short term fluctuations.  Quite often, at the point where they begin to stand out and people notice them, they are ready to revert towards the mean.  (The same idea is seen in the stock market: "buy low, sell high".)


 
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Posted: #1021

Quote Originally Posted by kreatture:



Home Teams today..

12-3

AL 6-1
NL 6-2

Unfortunately for me.. 2 of those 3 losses were by Boston and Colorado.. 2 games I was pretty heavy on.

Pretty bad afternoon/night for me.. worst I have had in about 3 weeks. Fortunately I hit big this morning on my Serena Williams Futures Bet and made some on Live Betting from my Book. Boston was a tough loss, finished the day down about 6 Units.
Overall, this is been by far the best week I have had since starting this journey just over 2 months ago.. still up +34 Units since Monday.

"But damn don't I feel depressed as heck tonight for some reason.. get 'em tomorrow I guess".

Cheers   

kreature, for a capper who has 'novice' status,(please understand, novice is not a negative term when describing the category of ones handicapping level / Novice: entry level, new arrival, developmental stage, dedication with in-experience, new to concept, and application of formula's ectect  Obama is a novice President) it's hard to believe your forward thrust in such a short time, and your clear dedication to developing your 'form' to reach your apparent goal of a professional sports handicapper...This does not take years, it takes dedication, in which you have shown a great deal of, in a very short time. I applaud your effort SN                 

 

your RedSox loss is shared by many(it was my strongest RL release, 8units, and iv'e been doing this for quite some time) that's baseball, the Mariners did the same thing to the Yankees, there' streakin' and should be capped as such, depression over a loss, rips a cappers self- esteem in half, and takes his ego into another dimension..You were up +40units, congratulations, you gave the 'book' back 6 of their own units, no big deal, your only concern at this point is R/R (getting your 6units back into your bankroll) nothing else!   remember, the only person you must impress is yourself, and your bankroll.. Iam going to post #957 on your behalf, and convenience of comprehending concept of dis-advantage in sports wagering; specifically MLB..respectfully  SN

 
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Posted: #1022
kreature, refer to #957   SN
 
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Posted: #1023

Quote Originally Posted by DarkHorse21:



"Streaks are short term fluctuations".  Quite often, at the point where they begin to stand out and people notice them, "they are ready to revert towards the mean". 


vg insight, and assessment on streaks, well put DH21

 
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Posted: #1024
[Quote: Originally Posted by sports_Network]
MLB system releases Saturday 07/04/09 Base_Runs formula...
 
Nationals+124  5innings...loss
Giants-160  5innings...win
BlueJays-118  5innings...loss
 
Reds+105 ML...win
Angels-142 ML...win
Royals+128 ML...win
 
Rockies+105 RL...loss
RedSox+102 RL...loss
 
MIL/CHC  OVER 8.5...win
DET/MIN  UNDER 9....win
TB/TEX  OVER 10......win
 
 
eleven PAC formulated
projected strength: 8/11
 
 
FINAL RESULTS:
7-4
units:+6.40
 
 
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Posted: #1025
                                          Sunday, July 5th, 2009
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