MLB system releases...

Quote Originally Posted by againstalloddz:

After completing  the majority of homework on tomorrows games I've singled out three road dogs that I feel might be smart plays.  My approach to finding them is quite simple and only includes math for pitcher ratings. First of all I checked the trends relating to the percentage of which is hitting what.  And according to covers, Dogs overall are hitting at 782-536 @ 59.33%, and road dogs are at 561-384 for a similar 59.37%.  I like those numbers, I've been keeping track of the dogs and faves that hit on all the games on a daily basis.  this gives me an idea of what to look for the day after.  I find that most of the time if there were more favorites, than dogs dogs are gonna roll the day after, and the same with overs and unders.  This is just used as my set up and i find it to be quite helpful.. Then I look at pitching matchups that have lines that seem to be odd.  Like for tomorrow, I noticed that a lot of the teams that are doing very well are at +110 (Phillies), Angels +115, and the mariners are at a whopping + 175, i anticipate the line would drop about 15 points +160 or maybe even +155 tomorrow.  After figuring out the pitcher rating on each matchup I, draw the conclusion that is opened up as a dog despite their recent success on the road.  I feel that there is good value in these.  Picks even more after looking deeper into the stats, pitcher vs. batter, trends, and so on.  My final stages of my routine include line watching, living here in vegas i notice typical trends in line movements, so once the line makes a move as predicted I then place a wager.  If anyone feels my strategy is ridiculous, or can suggest a different approach for increased winning percentage please let me know.  This is my first baseball season, and among all the sports, I've noticed mlb can be very profitable if done right. Also when you've got the right pick it's usually smooth sailing as the game goes on.  There is the occasional nail biter, but not as dramatic as a basketball game where the fucking team won't shoot a basket becasue there's 21 ticks on the clock and being up 4 is satisfying enough even though the fuckin spread is -4.5.  They can care less.

Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

I don't understand where you received the information regarding your presented stats on 'dog' play! Surely not from Covers data, they do not even come close to 1,318 recorded 'dogs' for the 09' season, nor does vegasinsider.com ...What hat did you pull 59% dogs hitting ratio from? over the past 8 seasons(including 09') it stands EXACTLY at 44.8%..i have every game in my data filed under "dog play" I also downloaded the research done by "hrabri_pero" right here in System&Strategies that shows a year by year break-down, with excellent attached insight. His findings; 44.6% that was three weeks ago, the thread, and pero are still available for discussion...my intention is not to embarass, or refer to you as a liar, only to point out your stats as being extremely in-correct, maybe they where passed on to you from someone whom you felt reliable, but wasn't...The cappers who particapate in this thread are advanced professionals with years of experience under their belt, and are very successfull at what they do, as are the formula's they use. NOTHING here is based on opinion, angles,  the law of averages, or luck..this is Sabermetrics connected to,and designed for MLB, which is connected to handicapping a wager, and producing a winning edge, with value advantage attached....i appreciate your commentary, but have know understanding as to your objective, for this is a BR/RC thread, open for discussion by cappers who's interest tilt in that direction, please take the simple advice of MeMyselfandEye, "read the thread from the start" study it, do some research, and come back, you'll be welcomed... if dedicated, and serious about making money..this is not a monopoly game....   best regards, SN

Quote Originally Posted by moneylog:

Quote Originally Posted by moneylog:

Quote Originally Posted by MeMyselfandEye:

SN....I have been looking at APBRmetrics recently (naturally)...Any experience in that area?

MME

Quote Originally Posted by MeMyselfandEye:

SN....I have been looking at APBRmetrics recently (naturally)...Any experience in that area?

MME