Posted:
#226
I may play it also, but ill prob only bet to win 1 unit.
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Modified Morrison NHL System
Posted:
#227
I think the thing about a system is that you are either playing it or youre not. It doesnt allow for hairs standing up on the back of your neck or gut instinct plays. Thats what separates it. You have to have the discipline and the faith to just have a system and stick with it and know that the + units will come. Last night I was 4-1 with this but I screwed up my night by deciding to bet Mizzou at +3.5. Just dumb.
You are either a system player or not, and I will not be making that mistake again this season. I am going to ride this thing and see where it goes and try not to screw up good math with my own intuition. 
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Posted:
#228
Ok, but really if you bet this game you already NOT following the modified system. There are filters implemented that say DO NOT play the first road series of any team. So in actuality you arent following the system. History has shown that the most losses occur in these sort of circumstances, hence the reason they are filtered out. Best of luck but ill play it conservative until the second road series.
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Posted:
#230
Quote Originally Posted by cdmop:
Ok, but really if you bet this game you already NOT following the modified system. There are filters implemented that say DO NOT play the first road series of any team. So in actuality you arent following the system. History has shown that the most losses occur in these sort of circumstances, hence the reason they are filtered out. Best of luck but ill play it conservative until the second road series.
Ok, but really if you bet this game you already NOT following the modified system. There are filters implemented that say DO NOT play the first road series of any team. So in actuality you arent following the system. History has shown that the most losses occur in these sort of circumstances, hence the reason they are filtered out. Best of luck but ill play it conservative until the second road series.
Yes, correct - respect your opinion
But with the modified A+B Labouchere method that Kong brought forth it is safe to play them all with no filters
Its only a 2gm chase and utilizing this theory will not hurt the bankroll by any means in the long term
Already me personally I am up 10 units following the system
so if Min does blow it its ok. In the short term its house money and by understanding this applied method of wagering the lost units can be won back in no time plus profit too from the other sets.
After the filters kick in I may then jump to the martingale........
Maybe........
But definitely the filters will strengthen the system so it could be an option to go larger per set if Labouchere is applied with the filters
Just sayin...... Don' mind me though
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Posted:
#231
cdmop.....very good point.
Max....I'm with you. Only playing this with a Labby method and a 2 game chase. I dont want to put my balls on the chopping block with a C game lurking. I am already nervous enough laying the juice with the Minnesota loss spread across the 2 lines under Labouchere. That made the bets for tomorrow on Minny and LA Kings alot bigger than I thought they would be as is.
Are either of you guys playing the home system as well? I am tracking that one too, but I havent played it yet.....
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Posted:
#232
First off, what are the other filters besides not playing the first series...which most of us have already played...
Secondly,
say the starting line, we have:
gm1 10-10-10-10
gm2 10-10-10-10
Last night, we went 4-1....
After the first 4 wins and then the loss (at -250), the end of the night would give us
gm 1 line is now 10-10-10-10 -25
gm 2 line 10-10-10-10-25.
However, is this not an alternative option...
what you can also do is add on the minny loss before the one of the other wins...
I would have 10-10-10-10-25 then cancel out one of the wins on the first line... giving us
gm1 10-10-10-10-5
gm2 10-10-10-10-25
I suppose we actually lose out 20 bucks when the next game 1 hits.
However, it makes it easier to swallow when wagering the next game 1....do you guys think this will work out in the end? or just stick with the original lines?
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Posted:
#234
JoeMoney, the line of 10-10-10-10-25 already has the crossed numbers accounted for. each win, i crossed out 2 numbers.
10-10-10-10 is the starting line...and with 2 wins, the line is cleared.
since there were 4 wins, i have cleared 2 lines.
i started a new line of 10-10-10-10, then i added on the loss for minny of 50 bucks. which is how i got the 10-10-10-10-25.
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Posted:
#235
ethan, shouldn't you have been splitting that 25 minny loss as 12.5 added onto each line instead of putting 25 on each line?
And how many times are you clearing lines before upping your bets? 2 or 3? After I cleared 2 lines on Thursday, I bumped up for Saturday's action. This system has been backtested well and gets better as the season wears on....so hopefully the Labby will make it as profitable Kong predicted.
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Posted:
#236
ethancraft50
MCBAIN NHL SYSTEM RULES:
(the 1st post of this thread tells you everything you need to know)
It is very simple. We bet NHL road teams when they go on road trips of at least 3 games. When the team is the favorite, bet moneyline. When the team is the underdog, bet puckline +1.5.
Make A bet, if it loses bet B so you still profit, if it loses bet C so you still profit on the entire series.
Using these filters should work for 09-10:
1. don't play first series of season or last for any team
2. don't play second series of 3 on any road trip
3. play +1.5 whenever available
4. eliminate teams with losing road records once at least 25 games have been played. (At start of year, could use road records from last season but that is iffy).
possible 5. do not play against top 2-3 RPI teams when they are at home
WE ARE CHASING AGAINST THE RULES BECAUSE WE ARE DOING IT WITH LOW RISK USING THE MODIFIED LABOUCHERE ALREADY UP 10 UNITS SO FOR NOW ITS HOUSE MONEY. Once the filters begin its a new ball game. We'll cross that bridge when when get to it
My own personal MM angle:
split the -2.55 units (lost on Min in gm1) by 2 giving us 1.28 units to round up
apply that 1.28 to the original profit goal of 1 unit
gm2 for me is to win 2.28 units at (+1.5 / -175) being at San Jose
risking 3.99 units to win 2.28 units
If it wins I am half way home
Still need to recoup the other 1.28 units too
So I wait for the next series and add that 1.28 units to the original profit goal in gm1 of the new series and follow to gm2 if necessary until the line is cleared
If gm2 loses here how it looks
gm2 = loses = -3.99 units
Ok its a loss on the record
No problem.......
Here's how we get that back
This series lost 6.54 units
I split that up by 4 (only because of the juice involved it could get very dicey) and repeat the whole process until that line is cleared
Just my opinion. Others are free to do whatever
6.54 / 4 = 1.63 units
giving us 1.63 units + plus the original profit goal of the next series
gm1 of that would be to win we'll say to keep it easy 2.63 units
And repeat until we get the lost units back plus the profit of others in the meantime
If you happen to still be confused.......
Its ok - it took me time to get this method down too in the past
Follow along on the bench and observe how we are doing it and then you may understand through that
I also suggest for you to read through the thread and study some more so you have a grasp
On today's menu
10-0 +10 units with 1 series pending
Gm2
Min +1.5 / -175
Me personally........ This is how I'm doing it
Risking 3.99 units to win 2.28 units
Gm1
Lak +1.5 / -240
Risking 5.47 units to win 2.28 units
KMang
Thanks - your on the right track
How long should you go before you raise your profit margin unit wise for each series is entirely up to.
2 - 3 - 4 - 5......... Whatever you may be comfortable with
Also how much you want to raise it too % wise pertaining to the original 1 unit is up to you too
Me personally am still going over the #'s to see on my end how I will bo about things
I may even go 3 gm's deep for the chase but that's just me.
Don't know yet
As long as we're all making money here - there is no right way or wrong way to wager. If your not making money then obviously your not doing it right. This is a long term strategy here.
BOL...............
MCBAIN NHL SYSTEM RULES:
(the 1st post of this thread tells you everything you need to know)
It is very simple. We bet NHL road teams when they go on road trips of at least 3 games. When the team is the favorite, bet moneyline. When the team is the underdog, bet puckline +1.5.
Make A bet, if it loses bet B so you still profit, if it loses bet C so you still profit on the entire series.
Using these filters should work for 09-10:
1. don't play first series of season or last for any team
2. don't play second series of 3 on any road trip
3. play +1.5 whenever available
4. eliminate teams with losing road records once at least 25 games have been played. (At start of year, could use road records from last season but that is iffy).
possible 5. do not play against top 2-3 RPI teams when they are at home
WE ARE CHASING AGAINST THE RULES BECAUSE WE ARE DOING IT WITH LOW RISK USING THE MODIFIED LABOUCHERE ALREADY UP 10 UNITS SO FOR NOW ITS HOUSE MONEY. Once the filters begin its a new ball game. We'll cross that bridge when when get to it
My own personal MM angle:
split the -2.55 units (lost on Min in gm1) by 2 giving us 1.28 units to round up
apply that 1.28 to the original profit goal of 1 unit
gm2 for me is to win 2.28 units at (+1.5 / -175) being at San Jose
risking 3.99 units to win 2.28 units
If it wins I am half way home
Still need to recoup the other 1.28 units too
So I wait for the next series and add that 1.28 units to the original profit goal in gm1 of the new series and follow to gm2 if necessary until the line is cleared
If gm2 loses here how it looks
gm2 = loses = -3.99 units
Ok its a loss on the record
No problem.......
Here's how we get that back
This series lost 6.54 units
I split that up by 4 (only because of the juice involved it could get very dicey) and repeat the whole process until that line is cleared
Just my opinion. Others are free to do whatever
6.54 / 4 = 1.63 units
giving us 1.63 units + plus the original profit goal of the next series
gm1 of that would be to win we'll say to keep it easy 2.63 units
And repeat until we get the lost units back plus the profit of others in the meantime
If you happen to still be confused.......
Its ok - it took me time to get this method down too in the past
Follow along on the bench and observe how we are doing it and then you may understand through that
I also suggest for you to read through the thread and study some more so you have a grasp
On today's menu
10-0 +10 units with 1 series pending
Gm2
Min +1.5 / -175
Me personally........ This is how I'm doing it
Risking 3.99 units to win 2.28 units
Gm1
Lak +1.5 / -240
Risking 5.47 units to win 2.28 units
KMang
Thanks - your on the right track
How long should you go before you raise your profit margin unit wise for each series is entirely up to.
2 - 3 - 4 - 5......... Whatever you may be comfortable with
Also how much you want to raise it too % wise pertaining to the original 1 unit is up to you too
Me personally am still going over the #'s to see on my end how I will bo about things
I may even go 3 gm's deep for the chase but that's just me.
Don't know yet
As long as we're all making money here - there is no right way or wrong way to wager. If your not making money then obviously your not doing it right. This is a long term strategy here.
BOL...............
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Posted:
#237
Quote Originally Posted by cdmop:
Ok, but really if you bet this game you already NOT following the modified system. There are filters implemented that say DO NOT play the first road series of any team. So in actuality you arent following the system. History has shown that the most losses occur in these sort of circumstances, hence the reason they are filtered out. Best of luck but ill play it conservative until the second road series.
Ok, but really if you bet this game you already NOT following the modified system. There are filters implemented that say DO NOT play the first road series of any team. So in actuality you arent following the system. History has shown that the most losses occur in these sort of circumstances, hence the reason they are filtered out. Best of luck but ill play it conservative until the second road series.
did anyone figure out what A line percentage would be if the filters were followed ? I would think it would have to be higher enough to make up for some of the games that could have been won if the games were to be played without filters for it to be worth playing with the filters.
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Posted:
#238
Quote Originally Posted by jv040:
did anyone figure out what A line percentage would be if the filters were followed ? I would think it would have to be higher enough to make up for some of the games that could have been won if the games were to be played without filters for it to be worth playing with the filters.
What's up there JV...........
If I understand your question correctly I think Kong applied the filters and came out with a strike rate % using the +1.5 / PL of basically 88 - 91 % for gm1 of each series throughout the past 4 years or so.
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Posted:
#239
Thank you Kmang and Montana for the response.
Kmang, since my line is 10-10-10-10, i wagered 50 to win 20 on the first game. I lost gm1, so the 50 was split into 25 onto each line.
Montana, that is an interesting way of adding in your losses, assuming minny loses tonight.
I would've just added the gm 2 loss of 3.99 units split it up and put it onto the gm1 and gm2 lines.
Using real numbers, say 1 unit = $10...
Starting with gm1 10-10-10-10
gm2 10-10-10-10
MInny gm1 loss: 10-10-10-10-12.8
gm2 10-10-10-10-12.8
Minny gm2 loss: 10-10-10-10-12.8-19.95
10-10-10-10-12.8-19.95
So our next gm1 would be risk to win 29.95.....
I notice you add on an extra unit to your profit goal for next series. this definitely helps you to recoup your losses faster. I'm guessin this is why you are up 10 units, and i'm not near that at all...lol
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Posted:
#241
My bad for posting late but we didn't miss anything today plus its football Sunday and I've been busy too with the pigskins.
Checked so far nothing cooking at least today through Wednesday
Ok so this is where we stand
Gm1
Lak +1.5 / -240 W +2.28 units
Gm2
Min +1.5 / -175 L -3.99 units
I won back half of my Gm1 loss (1.28 units divided by 2) from Min with the Lak series win
So I plan to get back only the -3.99 units on that series loss
Me personally....... I will split the loss of 3.99 units over the next 4 upcoming sets. I'll just round it up to 4 units to make it easy. I will keep profit goal for now still at 1 unit plus an extra 1 for the next 4 series for a profit goal of 2 units until they are all cleared and yes if more series losses happen in the midst, then I will just continue steadfastly.
Think of the tortes and the hare........
Here is the math
10- 0 +10 units (-2.55 gm1 Min loss pending) = +7.45
+ Lak W +2.28
= 9.73
- Min gm2 loss (-3.99) = +5.74 units
Again no filters have kicked in yet so we still have a ways to go. The season is young. Hope this is easy to understand. This is just my interpretation of the wagering. Anyone is free to wager however they may.
cdmop
Treading lightly bro...... Your advice is taken by those who knows what's up. Good looking out though
Checked so far nothing cooking at least today through Wednesday
Ok so this is where we stand
Gm1
Lak +1.5 / -240 W +2.28 units
Gm2
Min +1.5 / -175 L -3.99 units
I won back half of my Gm1 loss (1.28 units divided by 2) from Min with the Lak series win
So I plan to get back only the -3.99 units on that series loss
Me personally....... I will split the loss of 3.99 units over the next 4 upcoming sets. I'll just round it up to 4 units to make it easy. I will keep profit goal for now still at 1 unit plus an extra 1 for the next 4 series for a profit goal of 2 units until they are all cleared and yes if more series losses happen in the midst, then I will just continue steadfastly.
Think of the tortes and the hare........
Here is the math
10- 0 +10 units (-2.55 gm1 Min loss pending) = +7.45
+ Lak W +2.28
= 9.73
- Min gm2 loss (-3.99) = +5.74 units
Again no filters have kicked in yet so we still have a ways to go. The season is young. Hope this is easy to understand. This is just my interpretation of the wagering. Anyone is free to wager however they may.
cdmop
Treading lightly bro...... Your advice is taken by those who knows what's up. Good looking out though
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Posted:
#243
Do we have a list of the "official" plays like there was posted for the NBA V1 and V2? I believe KissAPistol posted a list at Post #129 of this thread. Is that list accurate?
As far as the new JM filter, I am not too concerned about that, but I do want to stay consistent with what Kong had in mind. As the thread title says....its a "Modified" JM NHL system.
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Posted:
#244
One other question..... I have no current intentions of playing this, but it might be interesting to track....
Since we are only playing game A and B of the chase, what happens if you play 2 game road trips just the same as a 3 game road trip. Maybe if the team is coming off an extended home stand??? I wonder if the 3 game road trip necessity is simply to provide 3 opportunities to chase that C winner if you need to, or if the longer road trip is a necessary filter.
Anyone think it is worth looking into? If profitable, it would certainly yield alot more plays. But with the +1.5 PL it would have to be about a 80-90% winner, right?
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Posted:
#245
Quote Originally Posted by KMang:
Do we have a list of the "official" plays like there was posted for the NBA V1 and V2? I believe KissAPistol posted a list at Post #129 of this thread. Is that list accurate?
As far as the new JM filter, I am not too concerned about that, but I do want to stay consistent with what Kong had in mind. As the thread title says....its a "Modified" JM NHL system.
With all due respect, I went thru the whole season team by team and made a list of all teams heading out on 3 game road trips. This list isn't filtered.
I believe there are many more series' than the ones listed by KISSAPISTOL.
Best of Luck.
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Posted:
#246
I started doing it myself too....I agree, there are ALOT more series than initially listed. Depends on whether you want to apply the filter of at least one game being against the opposite conference though. I am also tracking the home series because I play the same A & B system for Homestands as well. See OnlineSports's thread on those games. Each team has about 8-12 series you could play (50% road and 50% home) depending on which filters you choose to use.....
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Posted:
#247
Quote Originally Posted by KMang:
Do we have a list of the "official" plays like there was posted for the NBA V1 and V2? I believe KissAPistol posted a list at Post #129 of this thread. Is that list accurate?
As far as the new JM filter, I am not too concerned about that, but I do want to stay consistent with what Kong had in mind. As the thread title says....its a "Modified" JM NHL system.
I did this last night but cannot post it on the forum because it's too many characters? Which is BS cause I try to post 1 line and it still says that. So I don't know what's up!
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Posted:
#248
There is another system which I cam going to track for a few days. Someone posted it in this thread.
Place a bet on a road team that has ONLY 2 games - When the road team just came off of a Home Win
This apply's to EDMONTON TONIGHT - I am going to track it and see how it does for a week or 2.... then start betting on it.
In 2008-2009 It was 55A Bets 23 B Bets and 7 Losses
2007-2008 43 A Bets 18 B Bets and 4 Losses
Place a bet on a road team that has ONLY 2 games - When the road team just came off of a Home Win
This apply's to EDMONTON TONIGHT - I am going to track it and see how it does for a week or 2.... then start betting on it.
In 2008-2009 It was 55A Bets 23 B Bets and 7 Losses
2007-2008 43 A Bets 18 B Bets and 4 Losses
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Posted:
#249
Oct 15 – Sharks @ Capitals @ Islanders @ Rangers
Oct 17 – Hurricanes @ Devils @ Islanders @ Aves
Oct 17 – Predators @ Capitals @ Bruins @ Senators
Oct 20 – Blue Jackets @ Flames @ Oilers @ Ducks
Oct 21 – Stars @ Ducks @ Kings @ Blues
Oct 21 – Sabres @ Panthers @ Lightning @ Devils
Oct 22 – Red Wings @ Coyotes @ Avalanche @ Canucks
Oct 24 – Maple Leafs @ Canucks @ Ducks @ Stars
Oct 26 – Coyotes @ Rangers @ Blue Jackets @ Blues
Oct 27 – Aves @ Oilers @ Flames @ Sharks
Oct 17 – Hurricanes @ Devils @ Islanders @ Aves
Oct 17 – Predators @ Capitals @ Bruins @ Senators
Oct 20 – Blue Jackets @ Flames @ Oilers @ Ducks
Oct 21 – Stars @ Ducks @ Kings @ Blues
Oct 21 – Sabres @ Panthers @ Lightning @ Devils
Oct 22 – Red Wings @ Coyotes @ Avalanche @ Canucks
Oct 24 – Maple Leafs @ Canucks @ Ducks @ Stars
Oct 26 – Coyotes @ Rangers @ Blue Jackets @ Blues
Oct 27 – Aves @ Oilers @ Flames @ Sharks
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Posted:
#250
This is the october plays I came up with for October.
OCTOBER PLAYS
Oct 15 – Sharks @ Capitals @ Islanders @ Rangers
Oct 17 – Hurricanes @ Devils @ Islanders @ Aves
Oct 17 – Predators @ Capitals @ Bruins @ Senators
Oct 20 – Blue Jackets @ Flames @ Oilers @ Ducks
Oct 21 – Stars @ Ducks @ Kings @ Blues
Oct 21 – Sabres @ Panthers @ Lightning @ Devils
Oct 22 – Red Wings @ Coyotes @ Avalanche @ Canucks
Oct 24 – Maple Leafs @ Canucks @ Ducks @ Stars
Oct 26 – Coyotes @ Rangers @ Blue Jackets @ Blues
Oct 27 – Aves @ Oilers @ Flames @ Sharks
OCTOBER PLAYS
Oct 15 – Sharks @ Capitals @ Islanders @ Rangers
Oct 17 – Hurricanes @ Devils @ Islanders @ Aves
Oct 17 – Predators @ Capitals @ Bruins @ Senators
Oct 20 – Blue Jackets @ Flames @ Oilers @ Ducks
Oct 21 – Stars @ Ducks @ Kings @ Blues
Oct 21 – Sabres @ Panthers @ Lightning @ Devils
Oct 22 – Red Wings @ Coyotes @ Avalanche @ Canucks
Oct 24 – Maple Leafs @ Canucks @ Ducks @ Stars
Oct 26 – Coyotes @ Rangers @ Blue Jackets @ Blues
Oct 27 – Aves @ Oilers @ Flames @ Sharks
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