NBA Predictive Box Score System (Ratings, S.O.S., PPG)

Question

As per request, I&#x27;ve built an NBA workbook that uses each teams Ratings, Schedule Strength, and Points Per Game in a formula to predict outcomes for each individual matchup.The sheet is in BETA testing, but should serve as an excellent resource to handicap your games. The sample game on the Matchup Page is from Chicago @ Atlanta, December 9th, 2009.Statistics are taken from basketball-reference, and you can easily copy and paste these statistics into the sheet for basically plug and play results.Shameless plug:I run actionreverse.com, and most of my work involves the NFL and NCAAF using the YPPT &amp; HFA formula and system filters, which is the basis behind the NBA sheet. I have NFL and NCAAF matchup sheets available for free download, and will only be putting this NBA sheet up on Covers for the time being, until it is back tested with some solid proven advantages. Let me know how you guys use it, and use this thread to track how you&#x27;re playing it also if you choose.The sheet is available here: NBA Matchup Analysis Workbook

ActionReverse · Answer

As per request, I&#x27;ve built an NBA workbook that uses each teams Ratings, Schedule Strength, and Points Per Game in a formula to predict outcomes for each individual matchup.The sheet is in BETA testing, but should serve as an excellent resource to handicap your games. The sample game on the Matchup Page is from Chicago @ Atlanta, December 9th, 2009.Statistics are taken from basketball-reference, and you can easily copy and paste these statistics into the sheet for basically plug and play results.Shameless plug:I run actionreverse.com, and most of my work involves the NFL and NCAAF using the YPPT &amp; HFA formula and system filters, which is the basis behind the NBA sheet. I have NFL and NCAAF matchup sheets available for free download, and will only be putting this NBA sheet up on Covers for the time being, until it is back tested with some solid proven advantages. Let me know how you guys use it, and use this thread to track how you&#x27;re playing it also if you choose.The sheet is available here: NBA Matchup Analysis Workbook

hstlaur · Answer

Looks great, Can&#x27;t find about S.O.S and Ratings on basketball-reference, i guess S.O.S in your spreadsheet won&#x27;t change but where should i look for Ratings? Thanks

ActionReverse · Answer

S.O.S. and Ratings can be found here:https://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin.htmNot sure how often the NBA is updated (probably everyday) but that&#x27;s where they&#x27;re available.

kp4life82 · Answer

using stats to pick winners is something always wanted to do but what&#x27;s your goal of running your website. not sure what your intend is.

hstlaur · Answer

I gave it a try to confirm 3 leans that i had

Predicitve score : ATL 106,88 TOR 100,78       Pick : ATL -3,5

                         GSW 105,23 CHI 102,98      Pick : GSW +5

                         OKC 102,07 MEM 97,9 Pick : OKC + 2

ActionReverse · Answer

12/11/09 Recap: NBA Predictive Box Score System:

Indiana Pacers 100 - New Jersey Nets 99
Houston Rockets 103 - Philadelphia 76ers 97
Atlanta Hawks 107 - Toronto Raptors 101
Dallas Mavericks 101 - Miami Heat 98
Oklahoma City Thunder 102 - Memphis Grizzlies 98
Cleveland Cavaliers 97 - Portland Trailblazers 94
New Orleans Hornets 106 - New York Knicks 101
Golden State Warriors 105 - Chicago Bulls 103
San Antonio Spurs 98 - Charlotte Bobcats 96
Los Angeles Lakers 109 - Minnesota Timberwolves 89
Orlando Magic 108 - Phoenix Suns 104

Total Results ATS: 6-4-1, 60%

ActionReverse · Answer

12/12/09: NBA Predictive Box Score System:

Washington Wizards 102 - Indiana Pacers 96
Detroit Pistons 106 - Golden State Warriors 98
Boston Celtics 99 - Chicago Bulls 91
Dallas Mavericks 100 - Charlotte Bobcats 90
Milwaukee Bucks 97 - Portland Trail Blazers 96
Denver Nuggets 109 - Phoenix Suns 104
Los Angeles Lakers 100 - Utah Jazz 99
Sacramento Kings 109 - Minnesota Timberwolves 94

indiobear · Answer

I sent you a friend request and signed up to your site&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;gltu

ActionReverse · Answer

Total Results ATS: 4-4on 12/11/09 the Total Results (O/U): 7-3on 12/12/09 the Total Results (O/U): 5-3I&#x27;ll keep a look into both the projected ATS results and (O/U) results to see how accurate the system can produce.Overall: 10-8-1 ATS (55%) 12-6-0 (O/U) (66%)indiobear  (don&#x27;t think I received the friend request on here though)

indiobear · Answer

Friend reques sent again&#xD;&#xA;thanks

pdg893 · Answer

Hey Action&#xD;&#xA;Thanks for sharing your work.  One quick question, underneath the home and awat team input fields there are two grey line next to each other.  You example has inputs for atlanta and chicago two times but with different inputs.  What values go into these fields?&#xD;&#xA;thanks again

ActionReverse · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by pdg893]  Hey Action&#xD;&#xA;Thanks for sharing your work.  One quick question, underneath the home and awat team input fields there are two grey line next to each other.  You example has inputs for atlanta and chicago two times but with different inputs.  What values go into these fields?&#xD;&#xA;thanks again  [/Quote]I&#x27;ve actually updated the sheet, this one just using the team statistics. (The player statistics in the first sheet were not fully implemented and it was just extra work)The new sheet you simply update the Team Statistics page like the first sheet, get the Ratings and S.O.S. from the link provided above, and as far as the Matchup Page goes you only have to copy &amp; paste stats for the Home Team &amp; Away Team, and then insert the ratings in the boxes. Try the new sheet as I&#x27;m not exactly sure about the old sheet.Matchup Sheet Download

pdg893 · Answer

Thanks Action!&#xD;&#xA;quick stupid question - in the input fields for defense - do you use the data from the team opponents statistics? &#xD;&#xA;I capped the LA game tonight at 102-92 is that correct?&#xD;&#xA;thanks

ActionReverse · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by pdg893]  Thanks Action!&#xD;&#xA;quick stupid question - in the input fields for defense - do you use the data from the team opponents statistics? &#xD;&#xA;I capped the LA game tonight at 102-92 is that correct?&#xD;&#xA;thanks  [/Quote]Yep, "Team Statistics" for Offense, "Opponent Statistics" for Defense.Let me know how you make out w/ the sheet as right now I will not be tracking it, but it would be nice for someone to post their sheet results and compare them to the final results like how I started.

pdg893 · Answer

Ok Action - these are the predictions for today 12/15

Suns105- SAS101

Cats 101 NYK 96

Cavs 105 Nets87

Port 103 Sac 96

LA 102 Bulls 92

Hou 101 Pistons 94

Miami 104 Raptors 100

RINO808 · Answer

Awesome work Action, yeah i was thinking the same thing about the player stats..that would be really a lot of work...i just about have the TAR system done on a sheet and also sergios ppg also on a sheet...just cleaning it up...its not as professional as your sheet...i can send you the systems if you want, as another tool for your arsenal...lmk...thanks again for your hard work...

aceskid22 · Answer

hey i cannot open this in Microsoft Excel...is there anything that i am doing wrong? I would like to see how this work

pdg893 · Answer

results yesterday ATS   3 wins - 2 losses and 2 pushes&#xD;&#xA;SU - 7-0&#xD;&#xA;12/16 predictions - so far&#xD;&#xA;Nets 92 Jazz 103&#xD;&#xA;Wolves 96 Clipps 98&#xD;&#xA;Hornets 98 Pistons 97

pdg893 · Answer

and the rest for 12/16&#xD;&#xA;Grizz 96 Hawks 109&#xD;&#xA;Cats 96 Pacers 95&#xD;&#xA;Raptors 97 Magic109&#xD;&#xA;Cavs 101 Sixers 95&#xD;&#xA;Lakers 101 Bucks 97&#xD;&#xA;Mavs 97 Thunder 98&#xD;&#xA;Rockets 100 Nuggets 105&#xD;&#xA;Spurs 107 Warriors 102&#xD;&#xA;Wizards 99 Kings 105

RINO808 · Answer

Hey Action, got a question, how much of an impact does team rating and sos play into the predictive score...can you explain the factors of what they play into the predictive outcome. thanks in advanced..

losmi · Answer

Tnx, AR, for this tool, and tnx, pdg893, for posting calculations - for some reason, I can't get it to work at my place.

So, for 16.12. it went 10-2 SU, with a few scores predicted almost to the point! I guess you got a pretty good starting point here, AR, when you find the time perhaps you could work on this some more.

Until then, good job!

P.S. Pdg893, I hope you continue posting these calculations.

pdg893 · Answer

results for 12/16&#xD;&#xA;10-2 SU and 6-5-1 ATS&#xD;&#xA;since starting on 12/15&#xD;&#xA;17-2 SU 89.5% and 9-7-3 ATS 43.7%  I have not been tracking the total results but have noticed that the prediction is usually very close to the line for the total.  Action, did you say you have another spreadsheet for these calculations? I am wondering how to factor in travel, B2b games (with travel) and fatigue from long road trips into the prediction.

pdg893 · Answer

Predictions for 12/17&#xD;&#xA;Knicks 99 Chicago 100  line chicago -3 203&#xD;&#xA;Magic 101 Miami 97 line magic -4 200&#xD;&#xA;Phoenix 94 Portland 95 line portland -2 202.5

hstlaur · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by pdg893]  Predictions for 12/17&#xD;&#xA;Knicks 99 Chicago 100  line chicago -3 203&#xD;&#xA;Magic 101 Miami 97 line magic -4 200&#xD;&#xA;Phoenix 94 Portland 95 line portland -2 202.5&#xD;&#xA;  [/Quote]I have PHO 100 POR 101 for this game ... same results for first 2 games, i dont know whats wrong ... but thought it could be useful to know if plan going for the under ....

losmi · Answer

I already went OVER for 4 units, so I&#x27;m kinda hoping you&#x27;ll be closer to the actual scoreline. Either way, thanks you both for sharing the predictions with us, guys. However, all of these games appear to close to call. Even SU.

NBA Predictive Box Score System (Ratings, S.O.S., PPG)

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