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NBA Road Chase

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Captain
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Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by smdio:

I'm still unsure as to how this would be double profits

Let me use an example:

(I know these teams are unrealistic, but so what, it's just an example)

Miami Heat      @  Boston Celtics

                      @   Chicago Bulls

                      @   L.A. Lakers

Spread on Heat/Celtics  -7 Celtics

Spread on Heat/Bulls   -5 Heat

Spread on Heat/Lakers   -5 Lakers

JM System:  (A) bet on Heat (+10)  buying 3 points

Anti-JM:   (A) bet on Celtics (-7)  buying zero points

Final score:  Heat 90     Celtics  84

JM System:  Win  + 1 unit

Anti-JM:  Loss   - 1 unit

 

Continueing with the Anti-JM for Heat/Bulls

JM System:  No bet due to (A) win

Anti-JM:  (B) bet on Bulls +5 (buying zero points)

Final score:   Heat 90  Bulls 95

JM System:  No bet to to (A) win

Anti-JM:  (B) win on Bulls   =   +1 unit

 

At the end of the day, you're still up just 1 unit.  As a matter of fact, you'll be down money due to the juice involved with point buying.  The only way you can play these systems against each other, is if you win both of the (A) bets, which is most likely extremely rare.  That would be the JM system play would have to win because of the 3-point buy that you originally made, which according to my records happens about 5-10 times per year.  That wouldn't be enough to make up for the loss in juice

Correct me if I'm wrong...?

 

If you martingale...you win a unit on jm and a unit on ajm. 
 
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Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by LSU2thBone:

I just looked through sahlsa's nba sched spreadsheet. 

Without playing second 3-game series on a road trip (i.e. 6-game roadie playing second 3 games as another trip) there are 153 3-game Road Trips. If you filter out the teams making their 1st road trip of the season (Min, Por, Sac, Tor), you get 149 series' to play!!! You can get greedy and play those 4 as well, but there is a reason that is a filter. I know either last year or 2yrs ago there was a loss right off the get go.

Now some of these will be filtered out due to worst road record (to not play on) or best home record (to not play against). But with that many series we should welcome the filters.

Also...if you do play a second 3-game series off the same road trip (i.e. 6-game RT) you will add some more plays (probably 5-7 more series). Heck, the Clips have an 11-GAME ROAD TRIP THIS YEAR! I believe the system says to play these games as a second series on the same road trip, but I could use some clarification.

Based on what I see using the filters to begin the season, the first plays is:

Nov. 2 Memphis @ LAL


sahlsa's spreadsheet for 2010-2011 is where sir?  
 
Prospect
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Posted: #28
for Giggles I am going to track it for the Portland and Sacramento plays to start the year. I will use Labb on the JM side (due to larger juice) and I will use Martingale on the AJM side. I'll track to the covers line when it closes. We'll see what happens start using:
Portland and Sactown buying 3 pts Labb
10-10-10-10
10-10-10-10
10-10-10-10

Martingale
to win 20 to start on Min and LA Clips -110
 
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Posted: #29
I believe it was on Pokerpro40k's thread on tracking all JM versions. I think thread #22. For some reason I couldn't quote it on a separate thread and drop it here.
 
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Posted: #30
it would be nice to just play all 3 game road trips, much simpler to track.
 
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Posted: #31

Quote Originally Posted by smdio:

Right I understand that, but would the bets interfere with each other and cancel out profits?

Sort of. But, in essence, NO. Because I run a different Labby for "each" system.  Basically, if you will almost always have a "B" bet no matter who wins game 1.  Some will be eliminated after the first game.  !st is a was, in essence.

 
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Posted: #32
Oops... 1st game is normally a wash. But since we DO NOT buy points with AJM & buy 3 with JM  we can win both outright, sometimes, on the A bet.
 
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Posted: #33

OK, guys. Let's ditch the AJM thing on this thread due to confusion. If someone wasnt to start an ajm thread, let's start it somewhere else. Go ahead SMD, sorry for the interruption with me starting the AJM thing.

Ok, So, what are the plays? start tonight or Nov 2nd?

 
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Posted: #34

 

 GL tonight smdio,looks like a good system to follow.....

 

 
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Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by bettor2win:

OK, guys. Let's ditch the AJM thing on this thread due to confusion. If someone wasnt to start an ajm thread, let's start it somewhere else. Go ahead SMD, sorry for the interruption with me starting the AJM thing.

Ok, So, what are the plays? start tonight or Nov 2nd?

Good idea.  I intend to follow the Anti-JM as well, but to avoid confusion, I'll track the "v4" in this thread.  If someone could start an anti-JM thread as well, that'd be great

 
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Posted: #36

Just to recap:

 

25-25-25-25

25-25-25-25

25-25-25-25

 

First bets 10/27

(A) Sacramento +7 (-170) $85 to win $50

(A) Portland -1/2 (-170) $85 to win $50

 

 

 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by smdio:

Just to recap:

 

25-25-25-25

25-25-25-25

25-25-25-25

 

First bets 10/27

(A) Sacramento +7 (-170) $85 to win $50

(A) Portland -1/2 (-170) $85 to win $50

 

 

Nice start

New Labby line:

x-25-25-x

25-25-25-25

25-25-25-25

Next (A) bet Friday 10/30 with Minnesota

 
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Posted: #38
Has anyone every considered playing AntiJM for just the B and C bets, and only if JM wins on the A bet? I don't really like the idea of essentially washing bets.
 
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Posted: #39
guys i have a question, as we know every point makes a difference. how do you know which line to play on? is it always the opening line? so the bets have to be played pretty much the might before? and every book can vary..... this is why i never liked the JM system. he just gives you the pick without the line to bet on.
 
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Posted: #40
i read somewhere using his system just flat betting each game until a win yields a pretty decent profit as wel
 
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Posted: #41
Fellas,

I know we are going to scratch the AJM talk here and that's cool, BUT I figured I'd fill you in on a couple things that I was wondering on.

As far as the 80-2 record the AJM system had last year - I hope that is true going against v1 and v2. If you are not buying points that is AWESOME.

Several posts up I was wondering how v3 (all 3 vs same conf) would do AJM. The quick and dirty is NOT SO GOOD! I backtested last yr and the results were 44 wins, 15 losses. Two of the losses had 2 losses and a Push in them so I counted it a loss.
AJM vs v3 44-15

I also checked 2 out of 3 vs same conf and it wasn't good either. Final tally of 9 wins and 3 losses.
AJM vs 2 of 3 vs same conf 9-3

So...if the AJM worked to the tune of 80-2 against v1 and v2 without buying juice...let it roll.

But stay AWAY (on the AJM) from 3-game roadies vs all in same conf, or 2 of 3 in same conf.

Alright enough...just trying to help clarify what I was pondering about earlier. 
 
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Posted: #42

New Labby line:

x-25-25-x

25-25-25-25

25-25-25-25


should be


x-x-x-x

25-25-25-25

25-25-25-25


or

x-25-25-x

x-25-25-x


you won two bets not one
 
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Posted: #43

PSIC says to only use the first and last number at the start of the day when placing your bets.  If you win those bets, only cross out the numbers that you wagered.  In your example, I would have used the "middle" two 25's, as well as the "outside" 25's.  But that's not what PSIC suggests.

I understand that we won $100 total (counting the 2 (A) bets), but I'm rather sure we only cross out the first/last 25's

Correct me if I'm wrong?

 
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Posted: #44
 
Prospect
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Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by smdio:

Nice start

New Labby line:

x-25-25-x

25-25-25-25

25-25-25-25

Next (A) bet Friday 10/30 with Minnesota



You mean saturday
 
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Posted: #46
Yeah I'm fucked up, sorry guys
 
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Posted: #47

Tomorrow we have 2 "A" bets. CHAR. & MIN... Both start a road trip.

 

 
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Posted: #48
Guys are  knicks and cleveland a play on AJM? since por and sac won the "A" bet on JM?
 
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Posted: #49
Guys are  knicks and cleveland a play on AJM? since por and sac won the "A" bet on JM?
 
 
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Posted: #50

x-25-25-x

25-25-25-25

25-25-25-25

2 (A) bets for tonight:

Charlotte +9 (-170)  $85 to win $50

Minnesota +10.5 (-170) $85 to win $50

Good luck

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