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NCAA Week 5 - YPPT Method

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Prospect
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Joined: Dec, 2009
Posts: 8
Posted: #1
Here are the games for this week:
THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 30:
TEXAS A&M     32 OKLAHOMA ST    45
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 1:
BYU           19 UTAH ST        24
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 2:
TEXAS         19 OKLAHOMA       35
VANDERBILT    20 CONNECTICUT    21
OHIO U        30 E MICHIGAN     29
BALL ST       10 C MICHIGAN     35
WISCONSIN     25 MICHIGAN ST    21
MICHIGAN      47 INDIANA        20
NORTHWESTERN  33 MINNESOTA      18
VIRGINIA TECH 25 NC STATE       24
E CAROLINA    31 N CAROLINA     53
DUKE          26 MARYLAND       53
TULANE        10 RUTGERS        23
TEMPLE        20 ARMY           14
GEORGIA TECH  41 WAKE FOREST    41*
TEXAS TECH    19 IOWA ST        24
KENTUCKY      36 OLE MISS       41
TULSA         34 MEMPHIS        28
KANSAS        17 BAYLOR         25
KENT ST       18 MIAMI OHIO     23
IDAHO         38 W MICHIGAN     24
TCU           47 COLORADO ST    14
NAVY          19 AIR FORCE      26
BUFFALO       21 BOWLING GREEN  35
NOTRE DAME    23 BOSTON COLLEGE 18
TENNESSEE     11 LSU            32
WASHINGTON ST 13 UCLA           40
OHIO ST       27 ILLINOIS       18
GEORGIA       23 COLORADO       21
N ILLINOIS    26 AKRON          21
UTEP          26 NEW MEXICO     19
ARIZONA ST    27 OREGON ST      37
WYOMING       16 TOLEDO         25
SMU           32 RICE           21
FLORIDA ST    16 VIRGINIA       18
FLORIDA       10 ALABAMA        22
MARSHALL      19 SOUTHERN MISS  28
PENN ST       14 IOWA           21
WASHINGTON    24 USC            33
MIAMI         30 CLEMSON        16
BOISE ST      63 NEW MEXICO ST  14
NEVADA        38 UNLV           21
STANFORD      16 OREGON         34
LOUISIANA TECH 23 HAWAII         40
FLA INTERNATIONAL 22 PITTSBURGH     28
LOUISVILLE    29 ARKANSAS ST    31
LA LAFAYETTE  15 NORTH TEXAS    20
LA MONROE     10 AUBURN         49
FLA ATLANTIC  20 S FLORIDA      26
TUESDAY, OCTOBER 5:
TROY          36 MIDDLE TENN ST 28
WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 6:
UAB           14 UCF            28

*-Had a slight higher decimal before rounding.
 
Prospect
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Joined: Dec, 2009
Posts: 8
Posted: #2
Please note the following:
* This is not my method, it was posted on these boards by Roughshod and others last season
* Stats are gathered from statfox.com and put into the spreadsheet
* Stats used are for the entire season to date, including games against Division I-AA (FCS) and/or Division II teams
* Home Field Advantage is +1.5 points for the Home Team and -1.5 points for the Visiting Team
* Strength of Schedule is taken from the Sagarin Ratings on usatoday.com

Here is how the YPPT Method did for the final few weeks of the 2009 season:
Week 11: 41-10 SU, 29-21-1 ATS
Week 12: 40-12 SU, 29-23 ATS
Week 13: 37-12 SU, 17-30-2 ATS
Week 14: 12-6 SU, 5-12-1 ATS
Bowls: 20-13 SU, 14-18-1 ATS
===========================
Regular Season Totals: 130-40 SU (76%), 80-86-4 (48%)
Bowl Game Totals: 20-13 SU (61%), 14-18-1 (44%)
Overall Totals: 150-53 SU (74%), 94-104-5 (48%)
 
Prospect
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Joined: Dec, 2008
Posts: 333
Posted: #3
where do they get 1.5 for home? 

i've always heard 3 for home in NFL and 6 for NCAAF... 

this adjustment could help the ATS stats but impressive SU stats hitting at 74%
 
Prospect
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Joined: Aug, 2008
Posts: 71
Posted: #4
smd173, I'd like to swap a Nfl sheet for a college sheet
 
 
Veteran
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Joined: Nov, 2008
Posts: 2256
Posted: #5
YPPT is not a tool to be use by itself, more like using it with your capping skills which will give you a much better edge on picking winners...You are more likely to get a winning percentage of 44-48% using YPPT by itself...Might be good fading material  if you have the guts to

Home Field Advantage can also be be found on usatoday website which is normally around 3..
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