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New Strategy

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All-Star
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Posted: #1151
a 

money in the fkn bank......

 
Veteran
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Posts: 2741
Posted: #1152
That White Sox game saved me...PHEWWW...I might just stay away from the rest for the day...GL guys
 
Veteran
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Posts: 2387
Posted: #1153
July 18, 2010
One daily win chase record: 28-1
Double-tap record: 21-0
Triple-Tap record: Greedy, but good
Quad_Tap record: That's just too greedy, but still wins a lot
Straight record: 72-38 (65%) since June 19.
15 games on the board.
EDT, Betus lines, subject to change
Past performance does not guarantee future results
13:00_Game_1_Det/Cle___No__+100_
13:30_Game_2_Hou/Pit___Yes_+135_
14:00_Game_3_Chw/Min__No__+105_ 29-1
That airstrike saved our ass on that battle.
We're spoiled.
DOUBLE-TAP (1/2 unit for me)
15:30_Game_4_Sea/LAA__Yes_+100_
16:00_Game_5_NYM/Sfo__Yes_+145_
18:00_Game_6_Phi/Chc___Yes_+130_

The BS LUCK Machine.
 
Prospect
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Joined: Jan, 2010
Posts: 361
Posted: #1154
whose in for the double tap?
 
Veteran
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Posts: 2387
Posted: #1155
Quote Originally Posted by bfskate26:

whose in for the double tap?


Re-load and be ready for the second wave.
 
All-Star
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Posts: 10444
Posted: #1156
im ready.....


kill your book  

 
All-Star
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Posts: 10444
Posted: #1157
double tap its  in the fkn bank.....

 
Veteran
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Posts: 2387
Posted: #1158
July 18, 2010
One daily win chase record: 28-1
Double-tap record: 21-0
Triple-Tap record: Greedy, but good
Quad_Tap record: That's just too greedy, but still wins a lot
Straight record: 72-38 (65%) since June 19.
15 games on the board.
EDT, Betus lines, subject to change
Past performance does not guarantee future results
13:00_Game_1_Det/Cle___No__+100_
13:30_Game_2_Hou/Pit___Yes_+135_
14:00_Game_3_Chw/Min__No__+105_ 29-1
That airstrike saved our ass on that battle.
We're spoiled.
DOUBLE-TAP (1/2 unit for me)
15:30_Game_4_Sea/LAA__Yes_+100_
16:00_Game_5_NYM/Sfo__Yes_+145_22-0
18:00_Game_6_Phi/Chc___Yes_+130_

THAT'S WHAT I'M TALKIN ABOUT!
TO ALL YOU DIE HARD YES/NO BINGO PLAYAS.

The BS LUCK Machine.
 
Veteran
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Posts: 2741
Posted: #1159
Quote Originally Posted by smitler:

July 18, 2010
One daily win chase record: 28-1
Double-tap record: 21-0
Triple-Tap record: Greedy, but good
Quad_Tap record: That's just too greedy, but still wins a lot
Straight record: 72-38 (65%) since June 19.
15 games on the board.
EDT, Betus lines, subject to change
Past performance does not guarantee future results
13:00_Game_1_Det/Cle___No__+100_
13:30_Game_2_Hou/Pit___Yes_+135_
14:00_Game_3_Chw/Min__No__+105_ 29-1
That airstrike saved our ass on that battle.
We're spoiled.
DOUBLE-TAP (1/2 unit for me)
15:30_Game_4_Sea/LAA__Yes_+100_
16:00_Game_5_NYM/Sfo__Yes_+145_22-0
18:00_Game_6_Phi/Chc___Yes_+130_

THAT'S WHAT I'M TALKIN ABOUT!
TO ALL YOU DIE HARD YES/NO BINGO PLAYAS.

The BS LUCK Machine.

Still rockn and rolln eh Smitler...wish I had been home on the double tap but home all day tomorrow...kill the books again tomorrow

 
Veteran
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Posts: 2387
Posted: #1160
FINAL RECAP
July 18, 2010
One daily win chase record: 29-1
Double-tap record: 22-0
Triple-Tap record: Greedy, but good
Quad_Tap record: That's just too greedy, but still wins a lot
Straight record: 74-42 (64%) since June 19.
15 games on the board.
EDT, Betus lines, subject to change
Past performance does not guarantee future results
13:00_Game_1_Det/Cle___No__+100_
13:30_Game_2_Hou/Pit___Yes_+135_
14:00_Game_3_Chw/Min__No__+105_ 29-1
That airstrike saved our ass on that battle.
We're spoiled.
DOUBLE-TAP (1/2 unit for me)
15:30_Game_4_Sea/LAA__Yes_+100_
16:00_Game_5_NYM/Sfo__Yes_+145_22-0
18:00_Game_6_Phi/Chc___Yes_+130_

The BS LUCK Machine.
 
Veteran
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Joined: Feb, 2009
Posts: 2387
Posted: #1161
July 19, 2010
One daily win chase record: 29-1
Double-tap record: 22-0
Triple-Tap record: Greedy, but good
Quad_Tap record: That's just too greedy, but still wins a lot
Straight record: 74-42 (64%) since June 19.
13 games on the board.
EDT, Betus lines, subject to change
Past performance does not guarantee future results
19:00_Game_1_Col/Fla___Yes__+140_This has loser written all over it.
20:00_Game_2_Hou/Chc__Yes_+110_
21:35_Game_3_Nym/Arz__No__-105_Experimental Expansion of the system to have a play for each time slot.
22:00_Game_4.0_Sfo/LAD__Yes_+110_
22:00_Game_4.1_Bos/Oak__Yes_+110_
22:00_Game_4.2_Chw/Sea__Yes_+110_
Don't know how I'm gonna handle these last three yet.
The BS LUCK Machine.
 
Veteran
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Posts: 2387
Posted: #1162
NL
col/fla_y_+140
hou/chc_y_+110
nym/arz_n_-105 (optional)
sfo/lad_y_+110

AL
tex/det_n_+100
cle/min_n_-110 (optional)
bos/oak_y_+110
and/or
chw/sea_y_+110

 
Veteran
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Posts: 2741
Posted: #1163
Quote Originally Posted by smitler:

July 19, 2010
One daily win chase record: 29-1
Double-tap record: 22-0
Triple-Tap record: Greedy, but good
Quad_Tap record: That's just too greedy, but still wins a lot
Straight record: 74-42 (64%) since June 19.
13 games on the board.
EDT, Betus lines, subject to change
Past performance does not guarantee future results
19:00_Game_1_Col/Fla___Yes__+140_This has loser written all over it.
20:00_Game_2_Hou/Chc__Yes_+110_
21:35_Game_3_Nym/Arz__No__-105_Experimental Expansion of the system to have a play for each time slot.
22:00_Game_4.0_Sfo/LAD__Yes_+110_
22:00_Game_4.1_Bos/Oak__Yes_+110_
22:00_Game_4.2_Chw/Sea__Yes_+110_
Don't know how I'm gonna handle these last three yet.
The BS LUCK Machine.

Just for a little peace of mind Bookmaker opened NYM/ARZ N +100

 
Prospect
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Joined: Jul, 2010
Posts: 79
Posted: #1164
Smitler
Earlier this morning I did the same thing with the Mets/Arz game which is contrary to the Strategy.  It appears as if the last 2 or 3 days there have been more -115/-115 and -125/-105 games than before.......freakin' greedy books. 
 
Veteran
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Posts: 2741
Posted: #1165
Thinking I'm just gonna play the first 3 games on the chase and leave the last 3...BOL to however everyone plays it
 
Rookie
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Posts: 812
Posted: #1166
Smitler
Have you tracked to see how straight betting all games with the juice fares? In other words, playing the juice (opposite) of your picks? It looks like they have won pretty consistently. Just not sure if laying all the juice pays off though.
 
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Posted: #1167

I'm gonna start keeping track of "Team to Score 1st" lines in the same fashion how Smitler does it...just to see how it does...never know...lines are Bookmakers

BAL +160 

KC+145

ARZ +100

SEA +140

And if broken into NL/AL it would be:

NL                       AL

FLA +150             BAL +160

ARZ +100             KC +145

LAD +105             SEA +140

 
Veteran
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Posted: #1168

I'm gonna start keeping track of "Team to Score 1st" lines in the same fashion how Smitler does it...just to see how it does...never know...lines are Bookmakers

BAL +160 

KC+145

ARZ +100

SEA +140

And if broken into NL/AL it would be:

NL                       AL

FLA +150             BAL +160

ARZ +100             KC +145

LAD +105             SEA +140

 
Veteran
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Posts: 2991
Posted: #1169
In my opinion, the all star break threw a wrench in our system. Pitchers are creatures of habit and when you throw off their rest period it can change their performance. The juice will still always reflect the pitchers ERA primarily and the team etc. In the past week, the square bets predominated. I think if we give it some time, the wins will adjust in our favor relative to the system strategy. Right now it appears to be less dependable. That being said, maybe this will spur a reverse in the tides!

GL to ALL as always!
Cheers and thanks to Smitler's System
 
Prospect
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Joined: Dec, 2009
Posts: 6
Posted: #1170
just came across this thread:

i noticed something interesting a year or so back in regards to this prop -- i kept betting the NO side of this prop and not doing to well. 

so, ... 

i took all the stats from 2008 season (i think) and in something like 52% of the games a run was scored in the first inning.  this ran counter to my thinking -- I was expecting to see something like 40% of the time a run would be scored in the first inning.  now i didn't have the prop lines so i couldn't calculate what expected payoffs would be if you just bet YES in every game, but generally speaking i noticed at the time one gets better than even money to take the YES side of the prop.  seems like odds are little more balanced on this prop now than they used to be.

just a few thoughts... 
 
Veteran
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Posted: #1171
Quote Originally Posted by badself:

I'm gonna start keeping track of "Team to Score 1st" lines in the same fashion how Smitler does it...just to see how it does...never know...lines are Bookmakers

BAL +160 

KC+145

ARZ +100

SEA +140

And if broken into NL/AL it would be:

NL                       AL

FLA +150             BAL +160

ARZ +100             KC +145

LAD +105             SEA +140

Only problem I see is there might not be a score by the time the next one starts...see what happens...might get great + prices aswell

 
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Posted: #1172

Let's have a good night guys...I put a unit each on both prop bets...

1st Inning Score: COL/FLA Y +135

Team to Score 1st: BAL +150 (was +160) highest at the time

Playing both as a chase system...I'll keep track of it

 
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Posted: #1173
LET'S GET READY TO RUMBLE!
 
Prospect
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Posts: 498
Posted: #1174
GL everyone
 
 
Prospect
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Posts: 326
Posted: #1175
thanks for the observation on the Col/ Fla gm Smit.
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