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New Strategy

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Posts: 2552
 
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Joined: Feb, 2009
Posts: 2387
Posted: #2001
Wednesday, Sep 01, 2010, 15 Games
Version 1.0 Biggest AL/NL Dogs
Betus lines unless noted otherwise. Lines subject to change
Past performance does not guarantee future results
Single Tap (ST) Chase for a win (4-max) Money Management Style Optional
Double Tap (DT) Chase for a 2nd win if 3 or more games remain (4-max)
Times listed are EDT.
12:00_Game_1_chw/cle__N_+100_-1
14:00_Game_2_pit/chc___N_+120_+2.2
DOUBLE TAP
 15:00_Game_3_phi/lad___Y_+135_+1.35
 16:00_Game_4_sdp/arz__Y_+130_
19:00_Game_5_tor/tbr__Y_+130_
20:00_Game_6_det/min__Y_+125_
21:00_Game_7_col/sfo__Y_+130_
22:00_Game_8_laa/sea__Y_+120_

Was able to sit at the laptop all day so played v1 and v2 and got back 13 units today.
 
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Joined: Jul, 2009
Posts: 2109
Posted: #2002
Lab line might be the way to go with this system. Too many losses in the last month or so.
 
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Posted: #2003
Thurssday, Sep 02, 2010, 6 Games
Version 1.0 Biggest AL/NL Dogs
Betus lines unless noted otherwise. Lines subject to change
Past performance does not guarantee future results
Single Tap (ST) Chase for a win (4-max) Money Management Style Optional
Double Tap (DT) Chase for a 2nd win if 3 or more games remain (4-max)
Times listed are EDT.
13:00_Game_1_oak/nyy__Y_+105_
19:00_Game_2_nym/atl__Y_+165_
20:00_Game_3_det/min__Y_+125_
 22:00_Game_4_cle/sea__Y_+135_
 
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Posts: 2387
Posted: #2004
Thurssday, Sep 02, 2010, 6 Games
Version 1.0 Biggest AL/NL Dogs
Betus lines unless noted otherwise. Lines subject to change
Past performance does not guarantee future results
Single Tap (ST) Chase for a win (4-max) Money Management Style Optional
Double Tap (DT) Chase for a 2nd win if 3 or more games remain (4-max)
Times listed are EDT.
13:00_Game_1_oak/nyy__Y_+105_
19:00_Game_2_nym/atl__Y_+165_+1.65
20:00_Game_3_det/min__Y_+125_
 22:00_Game_4_cle/sea__Y_+135_
 
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Joined: Feb, 2009
Posts: 2387
Posted: #2005
Friday, Sep 03, 2010, 15 Games
Version 1.0 Biggest AL/NL Dogs
Betus lines unless noted otherwise. Lines subject to change
Past performance does not guarantee future results
Single Tap (ST) Chase for a win (4-max) Money Management Style Optional
Double Tap (DT) Chase for a 2nd win if 3 or more games remain (4-max)
Times listed are EDT.
13:00_Game_1_tor/nyy__N_-110_bmkr optional play
14:00_Game_2_nym/chc_N_+110_
19:00_Game_3_chw/bos_Y_+100_
20:00_Game_4_det/kcr__Y_+110_
20:00_Game_4_cin/stl___Y_+110_
21:30_Game_5_hou/arz__Y_+105_
22:00_Game_6_cle/sea__Y_+130_
 
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Posts: 2109
Posted: #2006
Still going eh smitty? I picked up a unit last night. I dont wager until I see v1 have a bad or losing day, and then start with V1 the next day. Has been working well.
 
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Joined: Oct, 2009
Posts: 2991
Posted: #2007
I have used alternating strategy as well and seems to be a good idea.
Cheers to V1
 
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Posts: 2387
Posted: #2008
Friday, Sep 03, 2010, 15 Games
Version 1.0 Biggest AL/NL Dogs
Betus lines unless noted otherwise. Lines subject to change
Past performance does not guarantee future results
Single Tap (ST) Chase for a win (4-max) Money Management Style Optional
Double Tap (DT) Chase for a 2nd win if 3 or more games remain (4-max)
Times listed are EDT.
13:00_Game_1_tor/nyy__N_-110_bmkr optional play
14:00_Game_2_nym/chc_N_+110_45%
19:00_Game_3_chw/bos_Y_+100_PPD
20:00_Game_4_det/kcr__Y_+110_68%+105 NO PLAY
20:00_Game_4_cin/stl___Y_+110_67%+1.10
21:30_Game_5_hou/arz__Y_+105_72%
22:00_Game_6_cle/sea__Y_+130_75%

Thanks curious and jd for these numbers. I will post them like this so we can track, unless you object.
I haven't taken the time to learn how to get these numbers yet.
 
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Posts: 2109
Posted: #2009
What do the percentages mean?
 
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Posts: 2387
Posted: #2010
Friday, Sep 03, 2010, 15 Games
Version 1.0 Biggest AL/NL Dogs
Betus lines unless noted otherwise. Lines subject to change
Past performance does not guarantee future results
Single Tap (ST) Chase for a win (4-max) Money Management Style Optional
Double Tap (DT) Chase for a 2nd win if 3 or more games remain (4-max)
Times listed are EDT.
13:00_Game_1_tor/nyy__N_-110_bmkr optional play
14:00_Game_2_nym/chc_N_+110_45%
19:00_Game_3_chw/bos_Y_+100_PPD
20:00_Game_4_det/kcr__Y_+110_68%+105 NO PLAY
20:00_Game_4_cin/stl___Y_+110_67%+1.10
21:30_Game_5_hou/arz__Y_+105_72%
22:00_Game_6_cle/sea__Y_+130_75%
 
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Posts: 2387
Posted: #2011
Quote Originally Posted by nolemonasses:

What do the percentages mean?


https://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-handicapping/550403-dabas-1st-inning-strategy-p83.html

Start with post 2875.

I haven't taken the time to learn it yet.

 
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Posted: #2012
https://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-handicapping/550403-dabas-1st-inning-strategy-p83.html

If it doesn't work you will have to copy paste into address bar.
 
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Posted: #2013
Dude, just give me the two second explanatuion. Its late and im sawsed.
 
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Posted: #2014
You can also go back to page 80 on this thread post 1979. That link works.
 
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Posted: #2015
Quote Originally Posted by nolemonasses:

Dude, just give me the two second explanatuion. Its late and im sawsed.


% of games team scored in first inning
% of games team allowed a score in first inning

Then I put the matchup for each game side by side and add these columns to each matchup:

(% of games visitor team scored in first inning + % of games home team allowed a run in first inning) / 2

(% of games visitor team allowed a score in first inning + % of games home team scored a run in first inning) /2

Then I add the last two columns together. That gives a total % for score in first inning.

Then I add another column by subtracting the total % for score in first inning from 100%. That gives a total % for no score in first inning.

Then I take the line for each game for score in first inning YES and multiply by total % for score in first inning. I do the same thing for NO and multiply the line by total % for no score in first inning.

Anything that is greater than 50% is a play.

This takes a lot of work and I don't have time to post it, but you can easily do this yourself.

 
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Posted: #2016
That's the best I can do nole.  I don't even understand it yet.
 
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Posted: #2017
Perfect. Thanks smitty. Getting the number is one thing, but I wonder if 50% is good enough.
 
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Posted: #2018
tor/nyy no +110
 
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Posts: 2387
Posted: #2019
Saturday, Sep 04, 2010, 16 Games
Version 1.0 Biggest AL/NL Dogs
Betus lines unless noted otherwise. Lines subject to change
Past performance does not guarantee future results
Single Tap (ST) Chase for a win (4-max) Money Management Style Optional
Double Tap (DT) Chase for a 2nd win if 3 or more games remain (4-max)
Times listed are EDT.
13:00_Game_1_tor/nyy__N_+110_
16:00_Game_2_laa/oak__Y_+125_
19:00_Game_3_atl/fla___Y_+125_
20:00_Game_4_hou/arz__N_-110_?
22:00_Game_5_sfo/lad___Y_+125_
 
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Posts: 2387
Posted: #2020
Saturday, Sep 04, 2010, 16 Games
Version 1.0 Biggest AL/NL Dogs
Betus lines unless noted otherwise. Lines subject to change
Past performance does not guarantee future results
Single Tap (ST) Chase for a win (4-max) Money Management Style Optional
Double Tap (DT) Chase for a 2nd win if 3 or more games remain (4-max)
Times listed are EDT.
13:00_Game_1_tor/nyy__N_+110_+1.10
DOUBLE TAP
 16:00_Game_2_laa/oak__Y_+125_
19:00_Game_3_atl/fla___Y_+125_
20:00_Game_4_hou/arz__N_-105_
22:00_Game_5_sfo/lad___Y_+125_
 
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Posted: #2021
Looks like line changes make cin/stl and col/sdp yes plays for the next set unless I wrote the wrong lines down in the first place.
 
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Posts: 2387
Posted: #2022
Saturday, Sep 04, 2010, 16 Games
Version 1.0 Biggest AL/NL Dogs
Betus lines unless noted otherwise. Lines subject to change
Past performance does not guarantee future results
Single Tap (ST) Chase for a win (4-max) Money Management Style Optional
Double Tap (DT) Chase for a 2nd win if 3 or more games remain (4-max)
Times listed are EDT.
13:00_Game_1_tor/nyy__N_+110_+1.10
DOUBLE TAP
 16:00_Game_2_cin/stl__Y_+135_+.675
16:00_Game_2_col/sdp_Y_+135_+.675
19:00_Game_3_atl/fla___Y_+125_
20:00_Game_4_hou/arz__N_-105_
22:00_Game_5_sfo/lad___Y_+125_
 
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Posted: #2023
Missed game 1. Anybody know what the line was?
 
Prospect
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Joined: Dec, 2007
Posts: 229
Posted: #2024
they were both minus.
 
 
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Posts: 2387
Posted: #2025
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