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NFL 09' strategic wagering...

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Posted: #451
3put
       appreciate your effort, your point is well made, and informative, please continue to discuss your MM insight, and bring this subject matter to the forefront of discussion;
 
SN
 
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Posted: #452
[Quote: Originally Posted by sports_Network]  
NFL 09'strategic wagering Matchup_Performance version..
Sunday, October 18th, 2009
Week 6
wager type: 4team 13pt Handicapp
risk: 12units
to win: 10.8units
 
Steelers-1 -110 (b+13)...win
Packers-1 -110 (b+13)...win
Vikings+10 +110 (b+13)...win
Saints+10 +110 (b+13)...win
 
 
 
ReleaseSheet ( FINAL RESULTS)
 
 
 
 
risk: 6units...loss
to win: 5.4
 
 
Eagles-1 -110 (b+13)...loss
Jets+3 1/2 +110 (b+13)...win
Patriots+4 +110 (b+13)...win
Falcons+9 1/2 +110 (b+13)...win
 
Redskins-250 ML / 7.5units...loss
Falcons-190 ML / 9.5units...win
 
8-2
units: +2.3
 
NFL 09'
+40.8units
 
 
 
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Posted: #453
MNF matchup_performance RELEASE
 
Chargers-160 ML / 8units
 
SN
 
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Posted: #454
I'm trying to put together an analysis of the teaser strategy.  I looked on Pinnacle's site and I couldn't seem to find the rules for this bet.  What happens when one of the component bets ends up in a push and the other three win?
 
Sorry for the obvious question.  I've never used teasers before.  I googled this and it said that the bet reduded to a three team teaser.  Is that true in this case?  What are the offered odds on a three team teaser?
 
Thanks...
tg
 
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Posted: #455
Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

MNF matchup_performance RELEASE
 
Chargers-160 ML / 8units
 
SN


SN please post your units so they are unambiguous.

Do you mean

A. Risk 12.8 units to win 8 units
B. Risk 8 units to win 5 units.

Please answer A. or B.
 
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Posted: #456
Quote Originally Posted by tallguyindc:

I'm trying to put together an analysis of the teaser strategy.  I looked on Pinnacle's site and I couldn't seem to find the rules for this bet.  What happens when one of the component bets ends up in a push and the other three win?
 
Sorry for the obvious question.  I've never used teasers before.  I googled this and it said that the bet reduded to a three team teaser.  Is that true in this case?  What are the offered odds on a three team teaser?
 
Thanks...
tg


Try to look at 5Dimes.
They have two types of Superteasers, one that reduce on a tie and one that lose on a tie.
 
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Posted: #457
Thank you.
 
I want to know specifically for this kind of bet though.  It seems like everybody on this site has been betting one kind of teaser.
 
A 4 team +13 pt -140 odds teaser.  What happens with this bet? 
 
If it reduces, how far does it reduce?
 
 
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Posted: #458
Quote Originally Posted by tallguyindc:

Thank you.
 
I want to know specifically for this kind of bet though.  It seems like everybody on this site has been betting one kind of teaser.
 
A 4 team +13 pt -140 odds teaser.  What happens with this bet? 
 
If it reduces, how far does it reduce?
 


From 5Dimes:

Teaser - ties reduce - football 13 pts
4 out of 4 pays -130

This is the kind of superteasers used in this thread.

It reduces all the way to a straight bet on one leg.
In case there are 4 ties the bet is canceled.
 
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Posted: #459

Quote Originally Posted by 3put:



SN please post your units so they are unambiguous.

Do you mean

A. Risk 12.8 units to win 8 units
B. Risk 8 units to win 5 units.

Please answer A. or B.

"Unambiguous" ? your in-ability to comprehend a "release sheet" produced by a seasoned handicapper with credentials, and documentation dating back 8seasons, who has prepared thousands of release sheets,published globally pertaining to the NFL, identical to the one in this thread, but yet, because of your clear frustration, you try to regulate this thread. i am not here to answer 'quiz' questions; door A or door B, am I corresponding with a little kid? how old ARE YOU? how many NFL seasons have you capped? are you a boy or a girl? how many units have you captured this year? ARE YOU DOCUMENTED ANYWHERE? do you even make wagers? do you administer the Matchup_Performance formula connected to the NFL? did you have ATL yesterday? What about tonight, who do you lean on? are you taking the over? Can the Denver D hold at sea level? Can Rivers be contained?  stick around, you may educate yourself, and become successful while doing so....And just maybe, someone will pop up and explain to you out of compasion, how to read a sports_Network ReleaseSheet NFL; because I am not going to based upon the fact that the answer is repititive through out the thread;  take it easy little fella

SN

 
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Posted: #460
A simple A or B answer would have saved you alot of time!
Good luck tonight. Just Bustin!
 
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Posted: #461
sscoach, somtimes A or B isn't so 'simple'
thx, back at you
 
SN
 
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Posted: #462
Quote Originally Posted by kreatture:



That is the key thing.. if anyone has a question or comment about the selections, then ask us here before the games begin. If SN is unable to respond, there are enough of us on here who know how this works to probably be able to explain it.

That being the case.. there will always be jealous lurkers around waiting to pounce on the first opportunity they see to "degrade the beautiful people"

Best of Luck this week 


Hi kreatture

Thank you for offering your help.

I'm in doubt about SN's pick for tonight.

Chargers-160 ML / 8units

Is 8 units the risk amount or the win amount?

 
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Posted: #463
SN deals in whole numbers when it comes to payouts.. looking back at all his selections you can easily tell how many Units he is always 'risking', and how many is 'to win'.

8 (units)  /  1.6 (odds)  =  5

8 Units risked to win 5

---------------------------------------------------------------------

If he had listed Chargers-160 ML / 5units

5 (units)  /  1.6  (odds)  =  3.125


Well you know he isn't risking 5 Units to win 3.125, cuz it's not a whole number, so you would know he is playing 'to win' 5 Units in that case, which would be a risk of 8 Units.

Just remember.. if you calculate both ways and get a decimal number for a payout, then that's not the correct play.
Units 'to win' are always whole numbers.




Cheers 


 
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Posted: #464
Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

...And just maybe, someone will pop up and explain to you out of compasion, how to read a sports_Network ReleaseSheet NFL....

SN



I just woke up, so yes, feeling compassion has the best of me at the moment..

As we get closer to game time, the teeth will become sharper and compassion will be left at the door 


Nice to see you're on San Diego tonight, as I have them as well.

San Diego by 10 ..   27-17


Cheers 
 
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Posted: #465
GL with the SD pick tonight SN.  Sad to say being a broncos fan, I do have a lean on SD tonight.  I think it will be more motivational than anything.  GM AJ Smith and Def Coordinator calling out the defense..calling them "soft and bewildered".  I think SD will come out with a vengence tonight. And what better way to do it against your division rival, in the Monday Night Spotlight, at home and after a bye. .  I will probably just sit back, drink some beer and watch this game without the stress of not betting. 
 
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Posted: #466
Nice Job
 
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Posted: #467
Quote Originally Posted by kreatture:

SN deals in whole numbers when it comes to payouts.. looking back at all his selections you can easily tell how many Units he is always 'risking', and how many is 'to win'.

8 (units)  /  1.6 (odds)  =  5

8 Units risked to win 5

---------------------------------------------------------------------

If he had listed Chargers-160 ML / 5units

5 (units)  /  1.6  (odds)  =  3.125


Well you know he isn't risking 5 Units to win 3.125, cuz it's not a whole number, so you would know he is playing 'to win' 5 Units in that case, which would be a risk of 8 Units.

Just remember.. if you calculate both ways and get a decimal number for a payout, then that's not the correct play.
Units 'to win' are always whole numbers.




Cheers 




Thank you.

So you are saying that SN is risking 8 units to win 5 units. Right?

The reason I was in doubt is that it could possibly mean risk 12.8 units to win 8 units.

You are telling me that when SN uses whole numbers, it refers to payout amount.

Look at post #280

MINN / ML  5units...win

Here 5 units (a whole number) apparently was the win amount.
 
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Posted: #468
sscoach, somtimes A or B isn't so 'simple'
thx, back at you
 
SN
 
 
Of course, its not so simple.  Don't you get it?  He is betting 8 units on the favorite.  So if the Chargers win, the answer was a).  He was risking 12.8 units in order to win 8 units.  However, if the Chargers lose, he was risking only 8 units to win 5.
 
He'll be more than willing to answer your simple question tomorrow after the game is over.
 
If you want to replicate S_N's success, just call up your bookie and inform him that you want to bet either $1280 or $800 and you'll tell him tomorrow which one it was.   If your bookie lets you get away with this, you will have a foolproof system and you will be rich in no time.  You will have successfully replicated S_N's "documented success" in the real world. 
 
Also, can you please inform me which book you use, because I'd like to use this book as well!!
 
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Posted: #469
Quote Originally Posted by JMon:

GL with the SD pick tonight SN.  Sad to say being a broncos fan, I do have a lean on SD tonight.  I think it will be more motivational than anything.  GM AJ Smith and Def Coordinator calling out the defense..calling them "soft and bewildered".  I think SD will come out with a vengence tonight. And what better way to do it against your division rival, in the Monday Night Spotlight, at home and after a bye. .  I will probably just sit back, drink some beer and watch this game without the stress of not betting. 

didn't we have this encounter with the Dallas game? i believe the Broncos won, tonight should be a different story, enjoy the game

 
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Posted: #470
Quote Originally Posted by tallguyindc:

sscoach, somtimes A or B isn't so 'simple'
thx, back at you
 
SN
 
 
Of course, its not so simple.  Don't you get it?  He is betting 8 units on the favorite.  So if the Chargers win, the answer was a).  He was risking 12.8 units in order to win 8 units.  However, if the Chargers lose, he was risking only 8 units to win 5.
 
He'll be more than willing to answer your simple question tomorrow after the game is over.
 
If you want to replicate S_N's success, just call up your bookie and inform him that you want to bet either $1280 or $800 and you'll tell him tomorrow which one it was.   If your bookie lets you get away with this, you will have a foolproof system and you will be rich in no time.  You will have successfully replicated S_N's "documented success" in the real world. 
 
Also, can you please inform me which book you use, because I'd like to use this book as well!!

 

single best post i have ever read on this site. no lie, or in other words not what sn does...love all the child refrences in his chiding of questioneres just like many of his odd speaking defenders. this is so transparent. seriously hilarious.

 
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Posted: #471
Quote Originally Posted by tallguyindc:

sscoach, somtimes A or B isn't so 'simple'
thx, back at you
 
SN
 
 
Of course, its not so simple.  Don't you get it?  He is betting 8 units on the favorite.  So if the Chargers win, the answer was a).  He was risking 12.8 units in order to win 8 units.  However, if the Chargers lose, he was risking only 8 units to win 5.
 
He'll be more than willing to answer your simple question tomorrow after the game is over.
 
If you want to replicate S_N's success, just call up your bookie and inform him that you want to bet either $1280 or $800 and you'll tell him tomorrow which one it was.   If your bookie lets you get away with this, you will have a foolproof system and you will be rich in no time.  You will have successfully replicated S_N's "documented success" in the real world. 
 
Also, can you please inform me which book you use, because I'd like to use this book as well!!


I don't know man, I think you are wrong. You want to make yourself believe that is how it works, but I really don't think it is.

How can you justify his play earlier in the season in Week 3 I believe when it was documented Dallas -380 ML / 38 Units.

This is another example where it is a whole number and can be the amount he is trying to win, or the amount that is bet and works out to be another whole number (+10 units). He ended up winning this very large play that week, and he did not claim +38 units. He claimed +10 units for that play. This is the exact same example, as tonight's play, but this one was a much larger play. If he documents in the way you guys say, why wouldn't he take the +38 units?
 
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Posted: #472
Quote Originally Posted by FreakyFresh:



I don't know man, I think you are wrong. You want to make yourself believe that is how it works, but I really don't think it is.

How can you justify his play earlier in the season in Week 3 I believe when it was documented Dallas -380 ML / 38 Units.

This is another example where it is a whole number and can be the amount he is trying to win, or the amount that is bet and works out to be another whole number (+10 units). He ended up winning this very large play that week, and he did not claim +38 units. He claimed +10 units for that play. This is the exact same example, as tonight's play, but this one was a much larger play. If he documents in the way you guys say, why wouldn't he take the +38 units?


I'm not sure how SN will document this play, that's why I asked him.
You read his non-answer.

We have an opinion from kreatture, saying 8 units risked to win 5.
But he just woke up and thought the alternative is risk 5 units to win 3.125 units.

At least he showed some compassion with me, that is more than SN did. But it's always funny to read him.

Let's hope he will calm down and answer my question in a civilized manner before kick off.

 
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Posted: #473
Quote Originally Posted by 3put:



I'm not sure how SN will document this play, that's why I asked him.
You read his non-answer.

We have an opinion from kreatture, saying 8 units risked to win 5.
But he just woke up and thought the alternative is risk 5 units to win 3.125 units.

At least he showed some compassion with me, that is more than SN did. But it's always funny to read him.

Let's hope he will calm down and answer my question in a civilized manner before kick off.



LoL .. no no, the alternative is not to risk 5 Units to win 3.125 .. I was just using 5 as an example to get a odd looking number as a payout.

The only times SN gets an odd looking number on a payout are on his teasers, which have always been posted 'risk' - 'to win'

You should be able to look at the ML and easily figure out what the # of Units posted means. They always divide into it evenly.

Anyways.. enough of this for tonight. I'm off to do some serious multi-tasking of watching the Dodger game, and Charger game.

Enjoy the game everyone

Bring on the beer! 
 
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Posted: #474
Quote Originally Posted by abracadaver:



You are the one who goes out of your way to avoid any question asked about units when you just post a general unit number with no "to win" or "risk" attached to it.  I don't get why you just cant give a straight answer, it was a simple question.   So, according to how your past wagers have gone, you just lost close to 19 units on Washington.  Just putting that out there before you try to say you only lost 7.5. 
  Gone for a few days, and yet I can plainly see somthing nevre change..   Like SN put its ARE YOU RETARDED or are you here just to put shit in the game....What difference does it matter how little or how much a person places his unit wager.......It is his money, his wager..........UNLESS OF COURSE YOU ARE PAYING HIS EXPENSES.   Grow Up and Beat Meat
 
 
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Posted: #475
Quote Originally Posted by sevenleighton:

  What difference does it matter how little or how much a person places his unit wager.......It is his money, his wager..........


The purpose of this forum is to share winning picks, systems, and strategies with everyone else so we can all hopefully  win.  And unit size indicates strength of the play.  By posting here with proven winning results over time, you have to assume you are gaining supporters who follow, so it is not just "his money".  That is the point in posting here, to help other people win as well.  If he or anyone else is posting their picks solely to toot their own horn, then they just shouldn't post at all.

I really don't care either way, this is just a observation from a neutral point of view.  I just find it ridiculous that is how you are justifying things with "What difference does it matter how little or how much a person places his unit wager.......It is his money, his wager".  I can understand where abra is coming from and why he would be insulted.  SN should just make it clear in his posts to avoid this nonsense unless there is some ulterior motive to being intentionally vague about what the unit number stands for.  Not everyone here is a professional.  Like I said, I am not trying to bash SN or anything, just an observation. 
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