NFL 09' strategic wagering...

Ok Tallguy, so where do you post your plays? You seem to have all the numbers figured out, so do you ever post plays or discuss WHAT you bet versus HOW to bet?

Would love to get and idea on what you bet (and how).

 

LOL....I don't have it all figured out.   Far from it. 

I was anticipating this question.  Seriously, my point is that people should do their own calculations and understand the math.  They shouldn't rely on some anonymous hack on a message board claiming to be a genius.  If I posted my picks, in essence I would be arguing just the opposite.  Basically, I'd be saying "You should be listening to a guy you've never met instead of doing your own work and I'm that guy".

On even money bets, I think I have an edge of only a couple of points.  That means that if I post 100 bets, on average I'll win 52 of them.  But very rarely will I actually win exactly 52.  What happens if I get unlucky and I only win 40 of them?  People would probably conclude that I'm an idiot.  Nothing I say has any validity at all.  You can just ignore all the points I'm trying to make.  I wouldn't want that.

On the other hand, what happens if I get lucky and I win 65 of them?  People will conclude that I'm a genius.  There is no need to do their own analysis or even read my analysis.  Just jump to the conclusion and do what I do.  Some of them would probably ignore the common sense MM advice (never bet 38 units on one game!!!) and overbet based on my recommendations.  When I hit a losing streak, they lose their grocery money.  Sorry, I don't want that either.

 

 

Tallman...........
Yes common sense. And that is up to each one of us individually to decide on.
I don't play all his picks - just some - I do my own thing with the NFL and take his views into consideration with my other capping ways.
Me personally have nothing against SN and appreciates what he brings here
No matter what his agenda is - it doesn't effect my bankroll
There are plenty of people around I could discredit too but does that increase my bankroll in any ways?
If other people are going down in flames because of SN then that's their fault. We are all adults here right?
Props to you and others if you feel you are saving souls from SN's picks.
Yes I also see how he records his units
It doesn't bother me because I wager differently from what he states
If he is looking for a documented record to tout then those who want to make sure by investigating will see this thread and see how a lot of people here don't trust him neither
The point I think you guys are trying to make is to have a positive impact on other BR's and I don't see that impact
If so in a positive way then anyone who is thankful for being saved please stand up and publicly thank these guys for exposing SN for what he is - a fraud from ya'll say
None of this effects me
Have you been burnt by SN - you don't want others too?
Just last week on my own accord I lost 40 units on Phi at Oak
Oh well
Watch my NBA ML thread - you'll have plenty of trash to talk then
A lot of people do lay the lumber on ML's
If that's not your style - ok then
At the end of the day we all have to make our own decisions
This is a shrude business and newbies can only learn the hard way otherwise they will never learn at all
If they are risking their grocery money, than that's their own fault
Only risk what your willing to lose
Wise bettors have BR's set aside for betting alone
I can understand in you trying to help others out but no matter how much you try many more will still fall victim in this business

I just do my thing
You do yours an others who are skeptical too
SN does his
For several pages now a lot of us have been yapping back and forth over all this
It doesn't get our BR's anywhere
Those who want to follow - will.........
Those who don't want to - won't............
Carry on everyone everyone........... GL

MontanaMax

SN... Anything this week ?? Looking at Buff and Oak .. Good luck

The Raiders+6 gets the lean, QB Sanchez has finally realized that without audibles, starting rookie QB's hit the 'wall' at the mid-way point or sooner.. AKA remember Peyton Mannings first year as a starter...

Taking the Bills could be costly, with there starting QB OUT and injuries to many key players listed as questionable, the strong lean goes to the Panthers, who have a better team, with a QB who is starting to produce after a rocky start. the best to you, prosper always

SN

SN,

You posting today? Like looking at your work before I bet.

Leans Panthers ml Chargers ml Pitt -6

Thanks for the reply .. Think I 'm off Buff , but now I 'm on Miami , still Oak , Chg .. You posting today ?? As Always .. Good Luck

NFL 09' strategic wagering Matchup_Performance version...

Sunday, October 25, 2009

Week 7

Wager Type: 4team 13pt Handicapp

Colts-1 -110                                                                              Packer+4 -110                                                                         Panthers+6 1/2 -110                                                                Giants+6 -110                                                                        risk:26units                                                                              to win: 20units

Wager Type: 4team 13pt Handicapp                                 

Bears+12 -110                                                                         Steelers+7 1/2 -110                                                                  Saints+6 1/2 -110                                                                    Falcons+18 -110                                                                      risk: 13units                                                                             to win: 10units

GB-400 ML  8units                                                                  CAR-310 ML 6.2units                                                              NYG-320 ML 6.4units

SN

 

NFL 09'                                                                                 units: +32.8

[Quote: Originally Posted by sports_Network]

NFL 09' strategic wagering Matchup_Performance version...

Sunday, October 25, 2009

Week 7

Wager Type: 4team 13pt Handicapp

Colts-1 -110                                                                              Packer+4 -110                                                                         Panthers+6 1/2 -110                                                                Giants+6 -110                                                                        risk:26units                                                                              to win: 20units

Wager Type: 4team 13pt Handicapp                                 

Bears+12 -110                                                                         Steelers+7 1/2 -110                                                                  Saints+6 1/2 -110                                                                    Falcons+18 -110                                                                      risk: 13units                                                                             to win: 10units

GB-400 ML  8units                                                                  CAR-310 ML 6.2units                                                              NYG-320 ML 6.4units

SN

 

NFL 09'                                                                                 units: +32.8

KDJFJ QSKDSDKFKGFKEPRKTEZTROK

 

 

 

WX?

SXAQXD

QS

 

GL. Probably a lot of haters just chomping at the bit tonight at their keyboards.

CT    the above happened on the transfer, the IP number was traced to PM correspondance, which produced the aliases, a clear violation of Covers policy..Thx for your assistance, and the courtesy of your reply

SN

nolemonasses, haters? i don't even use the word..and could care less about their post. THESE are trolls, nothing more, they are not cappers in any denomination..JUST read the reply you received regarding your question to "put up, or shut up" ya, their gonna "save" everyone, but theirselves..ironic when you mix a bunch of 16 year olds with BIPOLAR degenerates, this is what you get, just ignore their distraction, covers monitors this thread, and they will deal with the alias violations accordingly; let em' talk, the more they talk, the more they are recognized; lets just leave it at that.

SN

   Bump.........
   SN

NFL 09' strategic wagering Matchup_Performance version..  

 

 

JUST read the reply you received regarding your question to "put up, or shut up"

He's referring to post #528.  Read it.  I highly recommend you read it.  SN is basically a conman.  He's arguing that he can turn a rock into gold.  I'm arguing that he is just spraypainting the rock with gold colored spray paint.  If "put up or shut up" means that I need to demonstrate my own method to turn a rock into solid gold, I'll be completely honest and say I can't put up.  With good analysis, you can get rich slowly in this business, but it takes a lot of hard work, good math skills and a bumpy ride.  Anybody that promises you that you can get rich quickly by winning 70-80% of your plays is full of it.

Trolls... 16 year olds... BIPOLAR degenerates...

I raised substantive objections in posts #506 and #520.  Did he respond directly to any of the legitimate points I made?  No, he decided to call me names.  Honestly, I'm sort of surprised he didn't say anything about my mother. Because, if there is anything we all learned in kindergarten, its that you can effectively get yourself out from being caught in a lie by namecalling.

Prosecutor:  Can you explain to me why your fingerprints are on the murder weapon and there is a security camera tape of you pulling the trigger?

Defendant:  You are just a stupidhead that is jealous of my success.

How could the jury not believe that? It works everytime. 

I have a feeling a good day is in the works, and it's gonna be painful as I have to leave to take my family to church 1.5 hours before early-game kickoff so I'm not on them.  Good luck anyway SN!

very well put

and good luck today!

Philly for 50 units tomorrow night now?

Recovery play.

And if they lose, I'd like to see that recovery plan, it'd be a bailout.