okay, so here's what i did. instead of looking at preseason rankings, i looked at the teams that had the best home record the year before. you could also take the best record for the last 2, 3, 5 years, etc. but since you're chasing home teams, why not chase the teams who are best at home? taking the record through multiple years might get rid of some teams you know aren't a good idea.
so i have numbers for quarters and halves. i'll post numbers for only regular season now, but i also have preseason + regular season (if you were to continue chases from the preseason) if you want them. i didn't do anything with units, just how many games won - lost - pushed on each letter game (going A through F). when a game pushed on A, the chase started over. when a game pushed on a different letter game, it was marked as such and the next game was the same letter.
i also have numbers for if you made the last week for beginning chases, week 13. this cleans up everything but 1 chase. that chase is the packers (halves) in 2013. i normally would never change anything due to hindsight, but with aaron rodgers getting hurt, i obviously would have immediately removed them from the system, so i cut that chase off at week 9. it only affected halves though, and that could easily been absorbed into another chase or ignored completely, as it was an A game loss.
so i'll start with the total numbers, with no cut off - there are benefits to cutting it off at week 13, but you also lose some A/B game wins.
i was going to c/p my chart from google drive, but it's not formatting correctly, so i'll just type it up.
Teams:
2013: SEA, DEN, GB, MIN, IND
2012: GB, BAL, NO, SF, NE
2011: NE, KC, ATL, GB, BAL
2010: NE, MIN, IND, PIT, CIN
Quarters:
2013 A: 16-6-3 B: 3-3-1 C: 2-1 D: 1-0
2012 A: 9-12-3 B: 7-2-4 C: 3-0
2011 A: 21-5-5 B: 1-4 C: 3-0-1
2010 A: 16-5-4 B: 1-3-4 C: 1-2 D: 1-1 E: 0-1 F: 1-0 (F
that would be a total of:
A: 62-28-15 B: 12-12-9 C: 9-3-1 D: 2-1 E: 0-1
A: 68.89%
A/B: 82%
A/B/C: 92%
Halves:
2013 A: 15-8-3 B: 4-3 C: 1-1 D: 1-0
2012 A: 19-8-2 B: 6-2 C: 1-1 D: 1-0
2011 A: 26-4-2 B: 3-2 C: 0-1 D: 0-1 E: 1-0
2010 A: 14-10-2 B: 7-3-1 C: 1-1 D: 1-1
A: 74-30-9 B: 20-10-1 C: 3-4 D: 3-2 E: 1-0
A: 71.15%
A/B: 90.3%
A/B/C: 93.3%
in 2010, the teams that went to D games in quarters were PIT & CIN. PIT went all the way to F. in 2013 it was MIN going to D game.
in halves, 2011's E game is KC.
i hope this isn't an intrusion on your system. if people have other parameters they want backtested, i can do that too.
in the next post i'll put up the info for cutting it off at Week 13.
might be a couple hours before i get it up though. i hope i didn't forget to include something.