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NFL Preseason ATS Marty Chase

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Posted: #1
After back-checking this it looks promising.

This is a 4 game chase for the top 16 preseason ranked teams to win 1 game ATS and for the bottom 16 preseason ranked teams to lose 1 game ATS. When teams play each other it will be a no-play with the losing team starting a chase the following week to win 2 units. (Or you could just play both sides if you want). Take a look at the NFL preseason records for the past few years and you'll see that nearly every team wins at least one game ATS and loses one game ATS. By splitting the rankings in half I think we can apply the necessary filter to get those win-less and loss-less teams on the right side.
The rankings according to my limited research -

Top 16 to win 1 Game ATS -
1 NYG
2 NE
3 GB
4 BAL
5 SF
6 HOU
7 PHI
8 PIT
9 DET
10 DEN
11 CHI
12 ATL
13 NO
14 DAL
15 SD
16 CIN
   
   
Bottom 16 to lose 1 Game ATS -
1 KC
2 TEN
3 ARI
4 NYJ
5 CAR
6 SEA
7 BUF
8 TB
9 WAS
10 OAK
11 MIA
12 JAX
13 STL
14 CLE
15 MIN
16 IND



 
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Posted: #2
8/5


Today's play is actually a double play. We are chasing NO to win a game ATS and ARI to lose a game ATS:

NO -3
2 units






 
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Posted: #3
So since this is a 4 game chase, how much will be the bets each game?
 
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Posted: #4
Boom
 
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by t8kitall:

So since this is a 4 game chase, how much will be the bets each game?



I'll chart this system at $5 a unit. Here's the breakdown of the plays at -110 each:



A) 5.50 to win 5.00
B) 11.50 to win 10.45
C) 24.25 to win 22.05
D) 51.00 to win 46.36 
X) Total loss = 92.25


The goal of course is to win 32 units total. A 4-game loss equates to a loss of about 18.5 units. So basically, you can afford two losses during this preseason.




 
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Posted: #6
System Rec: 2-0, +2 units


Top 16 to win 1 Game ATS -
1 NYG fri
2 NE thurs
3 GB thurs
4 BAL thurs
5 SF fri
6 HOU sat
7 PHI thurs
8 PIT thurs
9 DET fri
10 DEN thurs
11 CHI thurs
12 ATL thurs
13 NO cashed A game
14 DAL mon
15 SD thurs
16 CIN fri
   
   
Bottom 16 to lose 1 Game ATS -
1 KC fri
2 TEN sat
3 ARI cashed A game
4 NYJ fri
5 CAR sat
6 SEA sat
7 BUF thurs
8 TB fri
9 WAS thurs
10 OAK mon
11 MIA fri
12 JAX fri
13 STL sun
14 CLE fri
15 MIN fri
16 IND sun




 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by wdtemacg:

Boom



 
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Posted: #8
Good luck with the system, but I won't be playing.  I don't bet a dime on preseason anything, even football.  Some of the "Top 16" teams (NE, GB, to name a few) couldn't give a rats patooty about the results of preseason games.  The Patriots seem to routinely lose to second division teams in the preseason every year.
 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by jonnymega:

System Rec: 2-0, +2 units


Top 16 to win 1 Game ATS -
1 NYG fri
2 NE thurs
3 GB thurs
4 BAL thurs
5 SF fri
6 HOU sat
7 PHI thurs
8 PIT thurs
9 DET fri
10 DEN thurs
11 CHI thurs
12 ATL thurs
13 NO cashed A game
14 DAL mon
15 SD thurs
16 CIN fri
   
   
Bottom 16 to lose 1 Game ATS -
1 KC fri
2 TEN sat
3 ARI cashed A game
4 NYJ fri
5 CAR sat
6 SEA sat
7 BUF thurs
8 TB fri
9 WAS thurs
10 OAK mon
11 MIA fri
12 JAX fri
13 STL sun
14 CLE fri
15 MIN fri
16 IND sun






 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by bruin95:

Good luck with the system, but I won't be playing.  I don't bet a dime on preseason anything, even football.  Some of the "Top 16" teams (NE, GB, to name a few) couldn't give a rats patooty about the results of preseason games.  The Patriots seem to routinely lose to second division teams in the preseason every year.



Thanks and good luck. You're right about teams not caring as much about the W in preseason. Hopefully that will work in this system's favor.


 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by nghia1973:









crazy weekend coming up...

 
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Posted: #12
8/9

Today's plays:

To win 1 game ATS
(A Game) NE -3
(A Game) GB +1
(A Game) SD -1
(A Game) PIT +1
(A Game) PHI -1
(A Game) BAL +1.5
(A Game) ATL -1.5
(A Game) DEN +3
(A Game) CHI -3


To lose 1 game ATS
(A Game) WAS +2.5
(A Game) BUF -2.5



 
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Posted: #13
System Rec: 6-0, +6 units


Top 16 to win 1 Game ATS -
1 NYG fri
2 NE - lost A game
3 GB - lost A game
4 BAL - cashed A game
5 SF fri
6 HOU sat
7 PHI - pushed A game
8 PIT - pushed A game
9 DET fri
10 DEN cashed A game
11 CHI - lost A game
12 ATL - lost A game
13 NO cashed A game
14 DAL mon
15 SD cashed A game
16 CIN fri
   
   
Bottom 16 to lose 1 Game ATS -
1 KC fri
2 TEN sat
3 ARI cashed A game
4 NYJ fri
5 CAR sat
6 SEA sat
7 BUF cashed A game
8 TB fri
9 WAS - lost A game
10 OAK mon
11 MIA fri
12 JAX fri
13 STL sun
14 CLE fri
15 MIN fri
16 IND sun


Today's plays:

To win 1 game ATS
(A Game) NYG +2.5
(A Game) SF -3
(A Game) DET -3
(A Game) CIN -1

To lose 1 game ATS
(A Game) KC -3
(A Game) NYJ +1
(A Game) TB +3
(A Game) MIA -3
(A Game) JAX -2.5
(A Game) CLE +3
(A Game) MIN +3











 
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Posted: #14

Jonnymega just wanted to say a big thank you. I'm new on here but liked the idea of this and followed some of your picks yesterday. Got nice wins on NYG, SF, CIN and only lost on DET.

Keep up the good work!

 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by RobJames72:

Jonnymega just wanted to say a big thank you. I'm new on here but liked the idea of this and followed some of your picks yesterday. Got nice wins on NYG, SF, CIN and only lost on DET.

Keep up the good work!



Cool bro. It's not too late to jump aboard. But be careful - There will be C and D plays... Also you could just play the top 5 or 10 and fade the bottom 5 or 10 if you like fewer plays.



 
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Posted: #16
8/11

System Rec: 13-0, +13 units
Overall Rec: 13-9-2


Top 16 to win 1 Game ATS -
1 NYG - cashed A game
2 NE - lost A game, NEXT: mon 8/20
3 GB - lost A game, NEXT: thurs
4 BAL - cashed A game
5 SF - cashed A game
6 HOU sat
7 PHI - pushed A game, NEXT: mon 8/20
8 PIT - pushed A game, NEXT: sun 8/19
9 DET - lost A game, NEXT: fri
10 DEN cashed A game
11 CHI - lost A game, NEXT: sat 8/17
12 ATL - lost A game, NEXT: thurs
13 NO cashed A game
14 DAL mon
15 SD cashed A game
16 CIN cashed A game
  
  
Bottom 16 to lose 1 Game ATS -
1 KC - lost A game, NEXT: sat 8/17
2 TEN sat
3 ARI cashed A game
4 NYJ cashed A game
5 CAR sat
6 SEA sat
7 BUF - lost A game, NEXT: fri
8 TB - lost A game, NEXT: fri
9 WAS cashed A game
10 OAK mon
11 MIA cashed A game
12 JAX cashed A game
13 STL sun
14 CLE - lost A game, NEXT: thurs
15 MIN cashed A game
16 IND sun



Today:

To win 1 game ATS
(A Game) HOU +3


To lose 1 game ATS
(A Game) CAR -3
(A Game) SEA -3
(A Game) TEN +3




Again, you don't need to play both sides of the SEA/TEN game. Just start the chase on the loser's B game for 2 units.


 
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Posted: #17
Hou
 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by nghia1973:

Hou




yeah baby!

Without chasing, the plays are doing pretty well on their own. Plays that are not same-tier match-ups are 10-4 ATS right now.




 
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Posted: #19
Stay tuned... I've got a College Football system based on this formula that I'm gonna bust out in about 2 weeks...


 
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Posted: #20
System Rec: 16-0, +16 units
Overall Rec: 16-10-2
Bonus Plays: 10-4


Top 16 to win 1 Game ATS -
1 NYG - cashed A game
2 NE - lost A game, NEXT: mon 8/20
3 GB - lost A game, NEXT: thurs
4 BAL - cashed A game
5 SF - cashed A game
6 HOU - cashed A game
7 PHI - pushed A game, NEXT: mon 8/20
8 PIT - pushed A game, NEXT: sun 8/19
9 DET - lost A game, NEXT: fri
10 DEN cashed A game
11 CHI - lost A game, NEXT: sat 8/17
12 ATL - lost A game, NEXT: thurs
13 NO cashed A game
14 DAL mon
15 SD cashed A game
16 CIN cashed A game
  
  
Bottom 16 to lose 1 Game ATS -
1 KC - lost A game, NEXT: sat 8/17
2 TEN cashed A game
3 ARI cashed A game
4 NYJ cashed A game
5 CAR cashed A game
6 SEA - lost A game, NEXT: sat
7 BUF - lost A game, NEXT: fri
8 TB - lost A game, NEXT: fri
9 WAS cashed A game
10 OAK mon
11 MIA cashed A game
12 JAX cashed A game
13 STL sun
14 CLE - lost A game, NEXT: thurs
15 MIN cashed A game
16 IND sun



We are halfway there already with 16 of the 32 games cashed. I've added a new series of plays made up of games where teams from tier 1 play teams from tier 2. They will be referred to as Bonus Plays. Obviously, the play is on the tier 1 teams and there is no chasing involved. These plays by themselves are 10-4 ATS.


Today:

To win 1 game ATS
no plays today

To lose 1 game ATS
(A Game) STL +1
(A Game) IND -1

Bonus Plays:
no plays today



 
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Posted: #21
System Rec: 17-0, +17 units
Overall Rec: 17-11-2
Bonus Plays: 10-4


Top 16 to win 1 Game ATS -
1 NYG - cashed A game
2 NE - lost A game, NEXT: mon 8/20
3 GB - lost A game, NEXT: thurs
4 BAL - cashed A game
5 SF - cashed A game
6 HOU - cashed A game
7 PHI - pushed A game, NEXT: mon 8/20
8 PIT - pushed A game, NEXT: sun 8/19
9 DET - lost A game, NEXT: fri
10 DEN cashed A game
11 CHI - lost A game, NEXT: sat 8/17
12 ATL - lost A game, NEXT: thurs
13 NO cashed A game
14 DAL mon
15 SD cashed A game
16 CIN cashed A game
  
  
Bottom 16 to lose 1 Game ATS -
1 KC - lost A game, NEXT: sat 8/17
2 TEN cashed A game
3 ARI cashed A game
4 NYJ cashed A game
5 CAR cashed A game
6 SEA - lost A game, NEXT: sat
7 BUF - lost A game, NEXT: fri
8 TB - lost A game, NEXT: fri
9 WAS cashed A game
10 OAK mon
11 MIA cashed A game
12 JAX cashed A game
13 STL cashed A game
14 CLE - lost A game, NEXT: thurs
15 MIN cashed A game
16 IND - lost A game, NEXT: sun



We're down to our last game of the week and it's the MNF game. DAL to win and OAK to lose. The game is also a bonus play.

Today:

To win 1 game ATS
(A Game) DAL +1

To lose 1 game ATS
(A Game) OAK -1


Bonus Plays:
DAL +1




 
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Posted: #22
thx bro
 
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Posted: #23
2 TEN cashed A game
 
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Posted: #24
2 TEN cashed A game
 
 
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by tom-jerry:

2 TEN cashed A game


Actually, TEN was a fade, that's why they cashed.

Not but


   
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