NFL Week 5 - YPPT Method

Question

Last Week: 6-8 (43%) SU, 3-11 (21%) ATSYTD (excludes Weeks 1 and 2): 17-13 (57%) SU, 13-17 (43%) ATSHere are this weeks games:DENVER        11     BALTIMORE      23 JACKSONVILLE  20     BUFFALO        22 KANSAS CITY   17     INDIANAPOLIS   29 ST LOUIS      14     DETROIT        26 ATLANTA       19     CLEVELAND      17 TAMPA BAY     13     CINCINNATI     27 CHICAGO       16     CAROLINA       12 GREEN BAY     18     WASHINGTON     19 NY GIANTS     21     HOUSTON        33 NEW ORLEANS   21     ARIZONA        23 SAN DIEGO     32     OAKLAND        20 TENNESSEE     16     DALLAS         16* PHILADELPHIA  22     SAN FRANCISCO  22* MINNESOTA      8     NY JETS        17 *-Slight decimal point advantage for these teams.

smd173 · Answer

Last Week: 6-8 (43%) SU, 3-11 (21%) ATSYTD (excludes Weeks 1 and 2): 17-13 (57%) SU, 13-17 (43%) ATSHere are this weeks games:DENVER        11     BALTIMORE      23 JACKSONVILLE  20     BUFFALO        22 KANSAS CITY   17     INDIANAPOLIS   29 ST LOUIS      14     DETROIT        26 ATLANTA       19     CLEVELAND      17 TAMPA BAY     13     CINCINNATI     27 CHICAGO       16     CAROLINA       12 GREEN BAY     18     WASHINGTON     19 NY GIANTS     21     HOUSTON        33 NEW ORLEANS   21     ARIZONA        23 SAN DIEGO     32     OAKLAND        20 TENNESSEE     16     DALLAS         16* PHILADELPHIA  22     SAN FRANCISCO  22* MINNESOTA      8     NY JETS        17 *-Slight decimal point advantage for these teams.

butta01 · Answer

bol....good for teasers....hitting some 10 and 13 points teasers....

gasman33 · Answer

Is YPPT...Yards per point total? ...and how do you then apply that # to a win prediction?

I have looked also at the YPP (yard per point) offensively for the last 3 games for all 2010 NFL teams this season. I have excluded the Total Season Stats due to it being a meaningless Pre-Season Games...

Offensive YPP= offensive yards last 3 games
                        Total Points scored last 3 games

Now get the Defensive Total Yards Allowed (DTYA) for the last 3 games...for each team...
.....if you take Team #1 DTYA & divide by Team #2 YPP you would get the "projected " score for the game...

Ok stay with me...this week for example:

Jacksonville plays @ Buffalo

                                last 3 month YPP Def Yards allowed

Jacksonville                       18.5                          418.7
Buffalo                               15.4                          411.7

so divide Jacksonvilles 418.7 by Buff 15.4 YPP= 27.2
then Buff 411.7 by Jac 18.5 = 22

...so the "predicted score " for this game is
Buffalo 27 Jacksonville 22

...also since Buffalo has the Home Field Advantage of 3 pts....

Buffalo 30-22

the Vegas line is Buffalo -1 o/u 40.5

so the pick would be Buffalo -1 & OVER 40.5

....I am still working on these...

gasman33 · Answer

So Biggest variances for Sunday...OVER/UNDER...NYG/Houston  (14.5)..........   Take UNDER 47.5Jac/Buff  (11.5) ................... Take OVER 40.5KC/Indy (8.5) ...................... Take OVER 45.5GB/Wash (7.5) ................... Take OVER 45.5Chi/Caro (7) ........................ Take OVER 33NO/Ari (7) ...........................Take OVER 45SD/Oak (7) ........................ Take UNDER 45Spread...Tennessee (13) ...... Take Tenn &#x2B;7GB (10.5)..............  Take GB -2.5Philly (9)...............  Take Philly &#x2B;3MNF...NYJ (9).......  Take NYJ -4Chi (8.5)...............  Take Chi &#x2B;2.5Ari (8.5)................  Take Ari &#x2B;6.5Lets see how it tests out this week before playing any...

butta01 · Answer

bol....You go 3-4 on totals and 2-4 on ATS......Fade and you win

gasman33 · Answer

we will see...

HeaVin-Cent · Answer

I have been doing very well with teasers using the yppt system. I like to stick to totals with them because I feel the value is better. BOL!!!

NFL Week 5 - YPPT Method

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