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NHL BOTTOM 5

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Posted: #26
That rule got ditched.

In fact, it seems the best rule for these situations is to have no rule and take it on a case to case basis. I chose to play the CGY game tonight and continue the chase against NJ because there was a good price on CGY and I think they can win. If NJ wins tonight, the chase will skip NYI on fri and pick back up with game C vs PHI on sat.

I know it can be confusing so I try to keep a schedule of upcoming games available here.


BOL


 
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Posted: #27
I'm going to add one more series to today's plays: BUF.

BUF starts a 3 game series tonight w/PIT



So, all of today's plays should be...


(A) PIT @ BUF (PIT -140 to win 1 UNIT)
(A) WAS @ CAR (WAS -140 to win 1 UNIT)
(A) CLB @ NYI (CLB -135 to win 1 UNIT)
(B) CGY @ NJ (CGY +105 to win 3.6 UNITS)



 
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Posted: #28
11/25/10

CHASE RECORD 19-0 WITH 1 PENDING

+25 UNITS


A) 14-6
B) 4-2
C) 1-0


CURRENT BOTTOM 5 (UPDATED 11/24)


EDM (3 game set starts tonight w/COL)
CAR (3 game set starts fri @BOS)
CGY (3 game set starts fri @PHI)
NJ (C game sat w/PHI)
NYI (3 game set starts dec 2 w/NYR)



Today's plays:


(A) COL @ EDM (COL -125 to win 1 UNIT)


and Happy Thanksgiving!

 
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Posted: #29
11/26/10

CHASE RECORD 19-0 WITH 2 PENDING

+25 UNITS


A) 14-7
B) 4-2
C) 1-0



CURRENT BOTTOM 5 (UPDATED 11/24)


CAR (3 game set starts tonight @BOS)
CGY (3 game set starts tonight @PHI)
EDM (B game sat w/SJ)
NJ (C game sat w/PHI)
NYI (3 game set starts dec 2 w/NYR)



Today's plays:


(A) CAR @ BOS (BOS -190 to win 1 UNIT)
(A) CGY @ PHI (PHI -210 to win 1 UNIT)


 
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Posted: #30
Didn't Calgary lose 2 to 1 on Wednesday as an B  play?  If so wouldn't it be a C play today?
 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by doubledime:

Didn't Calgary lose 2 to 1 on Wednesday as an B  play?  If so wouldn't it be a C play today?


Yes. Calgary lost to NJ as a B play in the NJ series. We are playing NJ's C game tomorrow when they face PHI (skipping the NYI game tonight).

The Calgary play listed above is its own series. The goal is for CGY to lose to one of the next 3 teams it faces (PHI, PIT, MIN).

gl
 
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Posted: #32
Thanks you for calrifying that.
 
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Posted: #33
That's  thank you.... not thanks you 
 
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Posted: #34
 
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Posted: #35

Is Pitt a B play against Calgery?

Is Phil a C play against NJ?

Both 1:00 games today...

 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by scotth69:

Is Pitt a B play against Calgery?

Is Phil a C play against NJ?

Both 1:00 games today...

yes,they are both plays.

also SJ is a B play vs.EDM.  10:00 pm

 
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Posted: #37
Yes guys, SJ is a B play and PHI is a C play. But there is also another B play against CGY.


11/27/10

CHASE RECORD 19-0 WITH 4 PENDING

+25 UNITS


A) 14-7
B) 4-2
C) 1-0



CURRENT BOTTOM 5 (UPDATED 11/24)


EDM (B game tonight w/SJ)
CGY (B game tonight @PIT)
NJ (C game tonight w/PHI)
CAR (B game sun @WAS)
NYI (3 game set starts dec 2 w/NYR)



Today's plays:


(B) SJ @ EDM (SJ -190 to win 3.25 UNITS)
(B) CGY @ PIT (PIT -210 to win 4.1 UNITS)
(C) PHI @ NJ (PHI -210 to win 8.5 UNITS)


Big day today. Let's close these out!





 
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Posted: #38
Sorry, those odds are wrong -

Should read:


(B) SJ @ EDM (SJ -140 to win 3.25 UNITS)
(B) CGY @ PIT (PIT -200 to win 4.1 UNITS)
(C) PHI @ NJ (PHI -135 to win 8.5 UNITS)


 
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Posted: #39
For those following, I know it can be a little overwhelming to keep track of the teams and their chases. I know it is for me. There is a schedule of upcoming games I keep just for this purpose. It can be found here.



 
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Posted: #40
11/28/10

CHASE RECORD 21-1 WITH 1 PENDING

+12 UNITS


A) 14-7
B) 6-2
C) 1-1



CURRENT BOTTOM 5 (UPDATED 11/28)

CAR (B game today @WAS)
NYI (3 game set starts dec 2 w/NYR)
TBD
TBD
TBD


Today's plays:


(B) CAR @ WAS (WAS -210 to win 3.9 UNITS)





 
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Posted: #41
The "system" lost its first C game last night to NJ. Hilarious in that the NYI won what should've been the C game a few days ago. Fortunately, we are still up 12 units. I'm considering tweaking again and changing this to a 2 game chase. Though this type of chase may take in more losses, they'll be smaller. And, we'll be better able to pick our spots. One possible 2 gamer is EDM @ OTT and @ MTL over 3 days beginning tomorrow...

As for now, let's finish off that CAR chase.

gl


 
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Posted: #42

been playing the last few days with an aggressive Labby line and have read this thread a couple times.

So we won Saturday night AGAINST EDM. Now this week we start another series against them because it's a new week and they are still in the bottom 5?

BOL

 
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Posted: #43
Yeah, EDM is definitely in our bottom 5

I'm going to expand the system a little bit to include 2 game chases and single game plays. The 2 gamers will be handled just like the 3 game chases in respect to B game plays (B games are to win 2 units plus A game losses). The single game plays will all share one labby line. If you're like me, you'll have to refer to this schedule here to keep track of all this shit.

It seems like this new approach should provide us with a little more action and some safer plays. Both of which I like.


 
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Posted: #44
11/29/10


+14 UNITS

3 game chase 22-1, 0 pending
A) 14-7
B) 7-2
C) 1-1

2 game chase 0-0, 0 pending
A) 0-0
B) 0-0

Single game rec 0-0
LAB (in units) .5 - .5


CURRENT BOTTOM 5 (UPDATED 11/29)

CAR (Single Game Play tonight w/DAL)
EDM (3 game set starts tonight @OTT)
CGY (3 game set starts tonight w/MIN)
NYI (3 game set starts thurs w/NYR)
NJ (3 game set starts thurs w/MTL)


Today's plays:


(A) EDM @OTT (OTT -200 to win 1 UNIT)
(A) MIN @CGY (MIN +125 to win 1 UNIT)
Single Game Play - DAL @CAR (DAL +105 to win 1 UNIT)


 
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Posted: #45
11/30/10

+15 UNITS


TOTALS

3 game chase 22-1, 2 pending
A) 14-9
B) 7-2
C) 1-1

2 game chase 0-0, 0 pending
A) 0-0
B) 0-0

Single game rec 1-0
LAB (in units) .5 - .5


CURRENT BOTTOM 5 (UPDATED 11/30)

TOR (Single Game Play tonight w/TB)
EDM (B game wed @MTL)
CGY (B game wed w/VAN)
NYI (3 game set starts thurs w/NYR)
NJ (3 game set starts thurs w/MTL)


TODAY'S PLAYS:

Single Game Play - TB @TOR (TB -105 to win 1 UNIT)



 
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Posted: #46

Has this system been backtested?

Have you considered flat betting  (a) and (b) games?

a games 14-9

b games 7-2  ---> wouldnt these 7 wins squash 7 of 9 losses ending up with a record of 14-4 (4 losses would come since you lost 2 games in (a) series and lost 2 games in (b) series ----> +10 units with no chasing

 
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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by cubfan2121:

Has this system been backtested?

Have you considered flat betting  (a) and (b) games?

a games 14-9

b games 7-2  ---> wouldnt these 7 wins squash 7 of 9 losses ending up with a record of 14-4 (4 losses would come since you lost 2 games in (a) series and lost 2 games in (b) series ----> +10 units with no chasing




Hey bro -

Sorry I didn't get back to you earlier... work is a freaking nightmare right now...

In response to your 1st Q, no. There is nothing automated about this system other than the money mgmt. Therefore, there is no way to backtest this as the plays are pretty much determined on a day to day basis and the bottom 5 is continuously fluid and dynamic.

In response to your 2nd Q, the plays are not for even money. If they were for even money then, yes, a 21-11 rec would likely yield 10 units. Without time to do the math, I'm guessing with flat betting that 21-11 might've yeilded between 0 and 5 units. Just guessing though, Feel free to check out the spreadsheet, The numbers are all there.

gl



 
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Posted: #48
12/01/10

+16 UNITS


TOTALS

3 game chase 22-1, 2 pending
A) 14-9
B) 7-2
C) 1-1

2 game chase 0-0, 0 pending
A) 0-0
B) 0-0

Single game rec 2-0
LAB (in units) .5 - .5


CURRENT BOTTOM 5 (UPDATED 12/01)

NAS (SG game tonite w/CLB)
EDM (B game tonite @MTL)
CGY (B game tonite w/VAN)
NYI (3 game set starts thurs w/NYR)
NJ (3 game set starts thurs w/MTL)



TODAY'S PLAYS:

EDM @MTL (MTL -225 to win 4 UNITS)
VAN @CGY (VAN -120 to win 3 UNITS)
Single Game Play - NAS @CLB (CLB -155 to win 1 UNIT)




 
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Posted: #49
Quote Originally Posted by cubfan2121:

Has this system been backtested?

Have you considered flat betting  (a) and (b) games?

a games 14-9

b games 7-2  ---> wouldnt these 7 wins squash 7 of 9 losses ending up with a record of 14-4 (4 losses would come since you lost 2 games in (a) series and lost 2 games in (b) series ----> +10 units with no chasing




So I found some time to run the numbers for last month to see if there was a profit to be made by flat betting. Here's what I found:

Rec: 24-12
+3.15 units (if playing to win 1 unit per play)

not sure what the outcome would be if one were to bet 1 unit per play, but it's prolly less.

Thanks for the input!


 
 
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Posted: #50
12/02/10

+5.45 UNITS


TOTALS

3 game chase 22-1, 1 pending
A) 14-9
B) 8-3
C) 1-1

2 game chase 0-0, 0 pending
A) 0-0
B) 0-0

Single game rec 2-1


After much thought, I've decided to close down the system. There just isn't enough time for me to keep it up as I would like. If it were to continue, I would probably abandon the C bet on TOR tonight and try to focus more on two game and single game plays.


GL

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