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NHL Home Chase 3 Games Plus

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Posted: #76
Quote Originally Posted by elithepunk:



Exactly, so now I can say 18 - 0 this month.



EDIT: Not really cause I did say I'd filter out the best road team which happen to be the Wings.
 
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Posted: #77
Do you not want to post the Toronto loss (even though they're a bottom home team)?  I've been watching this thread, don't know anything about hocky, but I doubt this would work in the long run, chases rarely work...lets keep it updated though...and maybe stay away from the bottom 8 home teams??
 
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Posted: #78
Montreal wins over Buffalo tonight 3-2 another win
 
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Posted: #79
Anybody take in consideration when you play the bottom 8 home teams to bet against them you would have no losses yet.
 
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Posted: #80
Quote Originally Posted by expertcapper:

Anybody take in consideration when you play the bottom 8 home teams to bet against them you would have no losses yet.


I've been tracking this kind of system as well. I'm basically taking each team that's playing a 3 game or more home-stand and fading them (and obviously chasing the losses by doubling up everytime).

So far:  I'm 35 - 3 ( with 2 ongoing series right now )

Thing is, since I'm always betting the AWAY team , my losses are cut short even if I'm chasing 3 games because of the high odds usually given to teams on the road.

So results so far translate into a profit of 23.26 units while 11.74 units were lost because of Boston, San Jose, and Washington all winning 3 games in a row at home.

Like you point out expert, all I need to do is filter out the best home teams and I would have a perfect record so far but by filtering those teams out, I'll also be increasing my average bets because of the lower odds of the visiting teams. Definitely something to keep in mind.
 
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Posted: #81
Today we watch Carolina starting the home stand, like I said before, I did some research and the 8 bottom teams, if you would play against them when they are on there home stand , you would have I think 39-0 if you followed a 3 game series with Carolina playing today. Now you would take Carolina today because they do not fit in the bottom 8 home teams.
Anaheim
Carolina -105
Good luck
 
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Posted: #82
expert - I don't think your numbers are correct

What you describe is exactly what I'm tracking. Betting against teams at home for 3 or more games.

There is currently a total of 38 series that are complete so I don't see how you can claim to be 39-0 ? Unless I am mistaken and you are referring to something else.
 
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Posted: #83
Carolina today starts the 40 th home chase series, what I am talking to you is ok the bottom 8 teams when they are playing at home like Florida and TB on Oct 11, 2008
Florida and TB
Florida had a 3 game home series
TB had a five game home series
Only chase for the first 3 games until a loss
Example
Oct. 11
Atlanta  2
Florida   3
so because they won you move to the next game which is Oct. 16

Minnesota   6
Florida       2
Therefore you won that series with Florida loosing
Another example
November 17
Boston 3
Toronto 2
Therefore you win that series on the first game hope this helps
So whenever you have the bottom 8 teams always bet to loose on the home team.
 
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Posted: #84
Top 16 Home Records 
PIT, NJ, NYR, WAS, CAR, DET, NAS, CHI, MIN, COL, EDM, ANA, DAL, MON, OTT, SJ,
Middle teams still play the home chase with these also
Buffalo, Colorado, Philadelphia, Boston, Vancouver,  Calgary
Play all these teams when you get a 3 or more game home series on the calendar of the NHL SEASON never chase more than 3 games
 
Bottom 8 Home Records 
LA, PHO, STL, TB, ATL, FLO, TOR, NYI
Play these teams to lose when the have a 3 or more game home series never chase more than 3 games


 
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Posted: #85
Let's compare results because I have counted a different number of series so far.

1021220 COLUMBUS000221112202212110
1
1
2
1
2
2
0
1 1
0
0
0
2
2 2
2
1
1
1 1
1
2
2
0
2
2
0 1
1
2
1
1
1


So, first column is the # of series where the team has lost at least one game at home ( 3 game or more home-stand) . As you can see, three teams ( San Jose, Boston, Washington) have actually won all 3 games of a 3 game home stand this season.

I hope this thread displays correctly so you can see.
 
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Posted: #86
damn , I had a feeling it would be screwed up , all that is missing is the list of teams , its basically Anaheim on top and Washington on the very bottom with all other teams in alphabetical order.
 
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Posted: #87
I just went to the top of this thread and there are 20 in October and 21 in November but Carolina plays tonight
So its actually 40-0 so far. . Because Montreal won yesterday the 29th
 
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Posted: #88

Pit 11 4g

Ott 11 4g

Flo 11 3g

TB 11 5g

Cal 11 3g

LA 12 4g

NYr 13 3g

Atl 14 3g

Mon 15 5g

Ana 15 3g

StL 16 7g

Nas 18 3g

Chi 19 3g

NYi 23 3g

Min 23 3g

Pho 23 4g

Buf 27 3g

LA 27 7g

NJ 29 4g

Ana 29 3g

November

Team - Date - #Games

Bos 1 3g

Van 2 6g

Chi 3 5g

SJ 4 3g

Ana 5 6g

Col 5 4g

Was 6 3g

Car 7 3g

Pit 13 3g

NYr 15 3g

NJ 15 3g

Car 16 4g

Tor 17 3g

TB 18 4g

Ott 20 3g

Min 20 5g

Buf 21 4g

Flo 24 3g

Pho 28 4g

Mon 29 7g

 
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Posted: #89
whoa , sorry about that, I misunderstood the way you wanted to play the system ...

And, yes, you are correct for the number of series. I had omitted one of the series and now see the total of 40 completed with one starting tonight.

I like your idea of optimizing the system into two categories. One for the best home teams and the other to chase the road time wins when playing against the bottom 8 home teams.

Only problem is when and how do you determine this standing. In other words, is your decision to put a team in the top 8 or bottom 8 only dependent on their home record when starting the series?

This is also an interesting system worth looking into.
 
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Posted: #90
these are the stats from last years games I just implemented them into this years games , but yes you could go by the 2 worst home teams in each league
 
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Posted: #91
Carolina was tonight home chase but fell through leading it to game 2 in the chase on December 5 playing Pittsburgh
Final
Anaheim 4
Carolina 1
So December 1, we have Detroit with 4 games at home , Minnesota starting a 3 game home series

Anaheim
Detroit -191

Colorado
Minnesota -160

Good luck

 
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Posted: #92
expert - so you will be fading these teams when they play at home LA, PHO, STL, TB, ATL, FLO, TOR, NYI

and all other teams you'll be using the original version of the system as posted in this thread?

perhaps it would be best if you started a new thread to make it easier to track through
 
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Posted: #93
I am moving this thread to my new version called NHL Home Chase 3 Games Variation Plus come join us for a productive ride thanks
 
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Posted: #94
Yeah thatnks for messing up my thread, then copy and pasting all the games schedule in the other thread!!!!!!!!!!
 
 
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Posted: #95
Always got somebody whining , this thread is supposed to help people now your whining, see why elithepunk you can't do this you always get someone whining
 
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Posted: #96
Who's whining? It's my thread, I did the work, all you did was copy and paste my work.  I am helping people from the beginnig of the season.  Elite comes in and starts fading teams, confusing people, when this thread is all about looking for a win, with a chase.  You come, copy and paste, copy and paste, boy that really takes alot of brains!!!!!  Instead of helping others, I'll just help MYSELF from now on!!!!!!!!!!!!  expertcapper my ass, more like copycatcapper!!!!!!!
 
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Posted: #97
Are you fucking serious? WTF, you had not posted since November 20th and now you show up complaining that we hijacked your thread.

Relax man, I suggested that expertcapper start a new thread with his variation and that's exactly what he has done. As for copying your valuable information, sorry to disappoint but I had done my own research and would have been happy to provide him with the remaining series. Whats the point of posting in this part of the forum if you don't let people use your strategy/information.
 
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Posted: #98
Quote Originally Posted by expertcapper:

Always got somebody whining , this thread is supposed to help people now your whining, see why elithepunk you can't do this you always get someone whining


I've come to notice this happening once in a while. Did not expect this from someone who had stopped tracking their system for more than a week.
 
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Posted: #99
Quote Originally Posted by SRTZEE:


Also this is Tomspeople strategy from last year, I had some free time so I made up the schedule and started the thread, as Tom was busy.  Again if we all share ideas and ask questions on how to make these strategies better we will all profit.  Thats why were are here!!! 


So, not only is this not your strategy, you claim that we're here to look at making these strategies better. Last time I checked, starting to track a variation of your system which would be 40-0 now falls into the category of profit and making it better.
 
 
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Posted: #100
Thanks for explaining that to SRTZEE, elithepunk,  thats what I thought we were here for to help each other . I am sorry i cause all the confusion all I was doing was trying to help. By the way SRTZEE i believe with your theory or strategy if you would of been playing you lost on NYIslanders on the 23rd of october. Also I nevr sen you posting for a long time theres people went in your thread a nd posted you nevr responded . I seen this and tried to find a way we could limit our losses. Which I found a way now I did not critcize you I was just nice to you. So I do not wanna hear no sarcasm again. Sure do you not think I could of made a schedule of all these games I seen yours and yes I did use them but I thought were in this together.  Once again I am only posting In my new thread back to business have a good day. PS I thought this was Tompeople strategy now your claiming it. I just tweaked it a little bit. I am sure someone lese will find a better way, I am not doubting that.
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