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NHL Homestand System

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Prospect
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Joined: Mar, 2016
Posts: 117
Posted: #26

Bluestar, that is correct!

Today's Play:

On STL: Win % > .500 AND Opp Road Win % < .500.

Game A: Risk 1.56 Units to win 1.00 Unit on St. Louis Blues ml -156.

GL!

 
Prospect
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Joined: Mar, 2016
Posts: 117
Posted: #27

St. Louis went down...we will continue that chase on 11/19.

Updated Record:

Overall System Record: 15-0 +15.00 Units

  • Game A: 11-5
  • Game B: 4-0
  • Game C: 0-0
  • Game D: 0-0

Overall Record/Bankroll: 15-5 +13.44 Units

Open Play: STL Game B.

Today's Play:

Fade Vegas Golden Knights: Home win % < .500.

Game A: Risk 1.82 Units to win 1.00 Unit on Calgary Flames +1.5 -182.

GL!

 
Prospect
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Joined: Mar, 2016
Posts: 117
Posted: #28

Calgary fails to show up...we will continue that chase on 11/19.

Updated Record:

Overall System Record: 15-0 +15.00 Units

  • Game A: 11-6
  • Game B: 4-0
  • Game C: 0-0
  • Game D: 0-0

Overall Record/Bankroll: 15-6 +11.62 Units

Open Plays: STL Game B. Fade VGK Game B.

 

Next Play will be tomorrow (11/19), we will have 2 Game Bs, and potentially 1 Game A.

GL!

 
Prospect
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Joined: Mar, 2016
Posts: 117
Posted: #29

Today's Plays:

On STL - Game B: Risk 6.02 Units to win 2.56 Units on St. Louis Blues +1.5 -235.

Fade VGK - Game B: Risk 5.08 Units to win 2.82 Units on Toronto Maple Leafs +1.5 -180.

On Dallas Stars: Win % > .500 AND Opp Road Win % < .500.

Game A: Risk 1.44 Units to win 1.00 Unit on Dallas Stars ml -144.

GL!

 
Veteran
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Posts: 1692
Posted: #30

an_popcornNice work 

 
Prospect
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Joined: Mar, 2016
Posts: 117
Posted: #31

We win 2 out of 3...we will continue the VGK fade chase on 11/21.

Updated Record:

Overall System Record: 17-0 +17.00 Units

  • Game A: 12-6
  • Game B: 5-1
  • Game C: 0-0
  • Game D: 0-0

Overall Record/Bankroll: 17-7 +10.10 Units

Open Play: Fade VGK Game C tomorrow (11/21).

Today's Play:

On Montreal Canadiens: Win % > .500 AND Opp Road Win % < .500.

Game A: Risk 1.88 Units to win 1.00 Unit on Montreal Canadiens ml -188.

Hoping we can pick up another unit tonight to help bankroll our first Game C tomorrow!

GL!

 
Prospect
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Joined: Mar, 2016
Posts: 117
Posted: #32

Lost on MTL and we will continue that on 11/23.

Updated Record:

Overall System Record: 17-0 +17.00 Units

  • Game A: 12-7
  • Game B: 5-1
  • Game C: 0-0
  • Game D: 0-0

Overall Record/Bankroll: 17-8 +8.22 Units

Open Plays: Fade VGK Game C & On MTL Game B.

Today's Play:

Fade VGK - Game C: Risk 12.24 Units to win 7.90 Units on San Jose Sharks +1.5 -155.

Fade LAK: Opp Road Win % >= .500.

Game A: Risk 1.30 Units to win 1.00 Unit on Edmonton Oilers ml -130.

First Game C, hoping we do not see a Game D this early into the season!

GL!

 
Prospect
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Joined: Mar, 2016
Posts: 117
Posted: #33

Edmonton lost, but had a winner on Game C with San Jose.

Updated Record:

Overall System Record: 18-0 +18.00 Units

  • Game A: 12-8
  • Game B: 5-1
  • Game C: 1-0
  • Game D: 0-0

Overall Record/Bankroll: 18-9 +14.82 Units

Open Plays: Fade LAK Game B & On MTL Game B (Tomorrow 11/23).

GL!

 
Prospect
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Joined: Mar, 2016
Posts: 117
Posted: #34

Today's Plays:

On MTL - Game B: Risk 5.85 Units to win 2.88 Units on Montreal Canadiens ml -203.

Fade LAK - Game B: Risk 2.55 Units to win 2.30 Units on Arizona Coyotes ml -111.

GL!

 
Prospect
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Posts: 117
Posted: #35

ARI beat LAK, MTL blows a 4-0 lead to drop Game B...we are on to Game C on 11/26.

Updated Record:

Overall System Record: 19-0 +19.00 Units

  • Game A: 12-8
  • Game B: 6-2
  • Game C: 1-0
  • Game D: 0-0

Overall Record/Bankroll: 19-10 +11.27 Units

Open Plays: On MTL Game C (Tuesday 11/26).

Next play is MTL Game C on Tuesday, Nov. 26. They have already beat BOS once this year.

GL!

 
Prospect
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Posts: 117
Posted: #36

Today's Plays:

On MTL - Game C: Risk 21.82 Units to win 8.73 Units on Montreal Canadiens +1.5 -250.

GL!

 
Veteran
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Joined: Oct, 2014
Posts: 1692
Posted: #37

Curios as to why you made a play AGAINST a team with a winning road record, WITH a team that doesn't have a home record above .500. This appears to be outside of your parameters.  Also, since Habs dropped their previous 4 games (all vs teams with losing records), why not abandon the chase, eat 8 units, and continue on in the green?

 

 
Prospect
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Posts: 117
Posted: #38

WOOF...MTL doesn't show up when we needed them and now we are on to Game D on 11/28.

Updated Record:

Overall System Record: 19-0 +19.00 Units

  • Game A: 12-8
  • Game B: 6-2
  • Game C: 1-1
  • Game D: 0-0

Overall Record/Bankroll: 19-11 -10.54 Units

Open Plays: On MTL Game D (Thursday 11/28).

Next play is MTL Game D on Thursday, Nov. 28.

GL!

 
Prospect
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Posts: 117
Posted: #39

Chaser to answer your questions:

I look at a teams Win %, Home win %, Streak, Opp win %, Opp Road win % at the time of the first game of the homestand.  So I had:

MTL:

Record: 11-10 (I count OT and Shootout losses as losses). Win % = .524.

Home Record: 6-4 for .600.

Streak:  Loss of 2 games.

Opponents of the first 4 games of the homestand:

OTT: 9-12 (Overall Record). 3-8 (Road Record).

NYR: 8-10. 3-4.

BOS: 13-8. 6-4.

NJD: 7-13. 4-5.

Overall Win % of MTL opponents: .463 (37-43)

Road Win % of MTL opponents: .432 (16-21).

So the Criteria(s) that fit that made us play ON MTL is:

MTL win% > .500 AND Opp Road Win % < .500. (.524 > .500 AND .432 < .500 is TRUE).

MTL home win% > .500 AND Opp Road Win % < .500. (.600 > .500 AND .432 < .500 is TRUE).

As to why I didnt abandoned the chase after mid-chase they have fallen below criteria, simply because I have never dropped a chase when doing this strategy.  I am open to the idea of it and may look back at my previous years to see how many losses/wins would be taken away by doing so.

I posted this system in this thread to get advice and an outside perspective, so much thanks for the input chaser!

 
Prospect
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Posted: #40

Today's Plays:

On MTL - Game D: Risk 51.92 Units to win 30.54 Units on Montreal Canadiens ml -170.

GL!

 
Prospect
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Posts: 117
Posted: #41

Certainly not the game we wanted with Carey Price struggling the entire game. But we move on...

Keep in mind that now we are post thanksgiving, our criteria will change slightly...

Play for a win if Win % is > .500 AND Home Win % > .500.

Play for a loss remains the same criteria.

We also add a Double Dip feature to post thanksgiving as well, meaning if we close a chase out and the team still has at least 4 games remaining to the homestand, we will have another chase with that team if the criteria fits.

Updated Records:

Overall System Record: 19-1 -59.41 Units

  • Game A: 12-8
  • Game B: 6-2
  • Game C: 1-1
  • Game D: 0-1

Overall Record/Bankroll: 19-12 -59.41 Units

Today's Play: 

BOS Win % AND Home Win %  > .500.

ON BOS: Risk 2.27 Units to win 1.00 Unit on Boston Bruins ml -227.

Boston's Homestand is 5 games long...so if they win today, we will Double Dip (DD) for one more chase!

GL!

 
Prospect
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Posts: 117
Posted: #42

Today's Play:

Fade FLA - Entering Homestand on a 3 Game losing streak.

Fade FLA - Game A: Risk 2.10 Units to win 1.00 Unit on Nashville Predators +1.5 -210.

GL!

 
Prospect
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Posts: 117
Posted: #43

Today's Play:

On BOS - Win % AND Home Win % > .500.

On BOS - Game A: Risk 1.90 Units to win 1.00 Unit on Boston Bruins ml -190.

Fade VAN - Home Win % <= .500.

Fade VAN - Game A: Risk 2.20 Units to win 1.00 Unit on Edmonton Oilers +1.5 -220.

GL!

 
Prospect
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Posts: 117
Posted: #44

Today's Play:

Fade FLA - Game B: Risk 6.82 Units to win 3.10 Units on Minnesota Wild +1.5 -220.

GL!

Tomorrow I will post with updated results!

 
Prospect
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Posts: 117
Posted: #45

 

Since my last update, we have had 4 wins, On BOS & BOS DD, and Fade FLA & VAN.

Updated Records:

Overall System Record: 23-1 -55.41 Units

  • Game A: 15-9
  • Game B: 7-2
  • Game C: 1-1
  • Game D: 0-1

Overall Record/Bankroll: 23-13 -55.41 Units

Today's Play:

EDM Win % AND Home Win %  > .500.

ON EDM: Risk 2.00 Units to win 1.00 Unit on Edmonton Oilers ml -200.

GL!

 
Prospect
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Posts: 117
Posted: #46

Yesterday we lost on EDM, and we will continue to Game B of that chase tomorrow (12/6).

Updated Records:

Overall System Record: 23-1 -55.41 Units

  • Game A: 15-10
  • Game B: 7-2
  • Game C: 1-1
  • Game D: 0-1

Overall Record/Bankroll: 23-14 -57.38 Units

Today's Play:

ON DAL: Win % AND Home Win %  > .500.

Game A: Risk 1.60 Units to win 1.00 Unit on Dallas Stars ml -160.

Fade DAL: Opp Road Win % >= .500 AND Losing streak of 5 games.

Game A: Risk 1.90 Units to win 1.00 Unit on Winnipeg Jets +1.5 -190.

Hoping for another middle here to pick up a couple more units!

GL!

 
Prospect
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Posts: 117
Posted: #47

Yesterday we happened to middle to pick up 2.00 Units on 1 game.

Updated Records:

Overall System Record: 25-1 -53.41 Units

  • Game A: 17-10
  • Game B: 7-2
  • Game C: 1-1
  • Game D: 0-1

Overall Record/Bankroll: 25-14 -55.38 Units

Today's Play:

ON EDM: Win % AND Home Win %  > .500.

Game B: Risk 5.05 Units to win 2.97 Units on Edmonton Oilers ml -170.

 

Next Play after tonight will be tomorrow (12/7)...potential play with FLA DD Homestand.

GL!

 
Prospect
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Posts: 117
Posted: #48

Picked up another W.

Updated Records:

Overall System Record: 26-1 -52.41 Units

  • Game A: 17-10
  • Game B: 8-2
  • Game C: 1-1
  • Game D: 0-1

Overall Record/Bankroll: 26-14 -52.41 Units

No Play Today.

Next potential play is tomorrow, FLA could have another DD situation.

GL!

 
Prospect
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Joined: Mar, 2016
Posts: 117
Posted: #49

Today's Play:

Fade FLA - Opp Road Win % (.519) >= .500.

Fade FLA - Game A: Risk 1.84 Units to win 1.00 Unit on San Jose Sharks +1.5 -184.

GL!

 
 
Prospect
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Joined: Mar, 2016
Posts: 117
Posted: #50

SJ didn't cover, we continue the FLA fade on 12/10.

Updated Records:

Overall System Record: 26-1 -52.41 Units

  • Game A: 17-11
  • Game B: 8-2
  • Game C: 1-1
  • Game D: 0-1

Overall Record/Bankroll: 26-15 -54.25 Units

No Play Today.

Next play is tomorrow, fade FLA Game B.

GL!

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