NHL Period Total Fade

Question

Period total over 1.5 fade system. I started this last season and back checked stats from the previous 2 seasons. From 2015-2017, over 90% of games played had at least 1 period with a period over 1.5

I will choose approx 3 games/night to accommodate my BR

joe_thc · Answer

Period total over 1.5 fade system. I started this last season and back checked stats from the previous 2 seasons. From 2015-2017, over 90% of games played had at least 1 period with a period over 1.5

I will choose approx 3 games/night to accommodate my BR

joe_thc · Answer

I had Fade on my mind but it&#x27;s a chase system

Danrules24 · Answer

I never looked at NHL period totals. If the game total is 5.5, do they set the first period at 1.5 or 2? I&#x27;m guessing 1.5. Also, will they set all periods the same or adjust after each period?

joe_thc · Answer

I use bet365 for these hets. They usually dont pist the 2nd or 3rd period until the previous one is over. Totals are 1.5/period I havent seen them change in regards to the game totals.

Danrules24 · Answer

Interesting. A 5.5 total breaks down to 1.83 goals per period, so in theory there is an advantage to betting the over 1.5.

Best of luck, I will keep an eye on this one. Maybe do a little research of my own as well.

joe_thc · Answer

Here are the numbers from 2015-2016Games played | 1230Games with at least 1 period over 123095.04%I did this with most of the 2016-2017 season . I didn&#x27;t finish it but I believe it was somewhere around 93% around mid season.

joe_thc · Answer

EDIT: Games played | 1230Games with at least 1 period over 116995.04%

Danrules24 · Answer

Looking at line history by period, I noticed that for a 5.5 total, more often than not you'll get +odds betting the 1.5 over in period 1. If that goes under the odds flip to anywhere from -130 to -165 (in general) for over 1.5 in periods 2-3. I think the value lies in betting only period 1 over.

With the higher odds and chasing through 3 periods, a single loss will be almost 10 units lost at -130 if you chase to win 1 unit.

I'm in the middle of testing last year, and so far over 50% of the games of 5.5 totals go over 1.5 in period 1. At plus odds and playing on labby line, could be a good little profit.

If someone is good at writing scripts for research, please post the formula on this thread. I can't wrap my head around those scripts, tried and failed numerous times.

joe_thc · Answer

I can script this is Excel. Just a lot of data to pull. Dan, if you want , PM me and maybe we can work together on wining some money.

Also

All games on opening night had a period with 1 period over. I was lucky and only took the pittsburgh and Toronto game and hit both in the first. Quick $

joe_thc · Answer

Also, if Period 1 &#x2B; 2 are both under, the probably of the 3rd hitting is over 90%. Skipping the 1st and 2nd period bet all together and betting large on the 3rd may be just as profitable with less risk

Danrules24 · Answer

My book doesn&#x27;t have betting on periods 2 and 3 during the game.  All 3 periods are available pre game but not during. Without that, I cannot play this system.

kld1918 · Answer

I&#x27;m in the same boat. Really like the looks of this system, but unfortunately wouldn&#x27;t work on my book.

joe_thc · Answer

My Local book only has 1st period so I use bet365 for this system only.

winnerwinner99 · Answer

they don&#x27;t post totals LIVE in the NHL?

winnerwinner99 · Answer

never mind&#x2026;stupid question&#x2026;

Danrules24 · Answer

The only way I could play this would be to do so on a labby line for period 1 only. Period 1 has the lowest odds and my research shows about a 46.5% win rate on the games I tested at 5.5 total over the last 2 years.

Still thinking about this.

For_the_win · Answer

What you could do is only play the first period of one game, then if it doesn&#x27;t hit play the first period of a 2nd game at a later start time. You would have way less plays per day, but this might reduce risk too. Just a thought, haven&#x27;t tested it to see if it would work within the start times.

rivermonsterz · Answer

Thanks for the research Dan.Im thinking if its hitting at 46.5% for the overs, that must mean the unders is hitting at 53.5%..... I know the unders is usually minus odds but at the higher win % the labby lines will be clearing at a much faster rate.How is the distribution of results? Are there long stretches of losing?

Danrules24 · Answer

What I&#x27;ve been doing is playing all games that my book has at 5.5 as a total and betting the over 1.5 for Per1. Using a labby line, I play all the early games, then adjust lines for later games. This works well with the NHLs schedule and the first period lasting less than 1 hour. So far the over has hit on 7 of 8 games. Yes this system can have decent size streaks.

leo81 · Answer

Doing the same system only when the total is 6

leo81 · Answer

Betting 1st period only march had a 5game losing streak. Betting a period chase per game had 2 losing games so a labbyline is what i&#x27;ll use. Backtested using SBR untill I was blocked on last Oct. What is a good site to backtest? cant find one on Covers.I wonder how a Stoffo parlay would work?

leo81 · Answer

The 2 losing games mentioned before were for the year not for March

NHL Period Total Fade

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