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Prospect
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Posted: #1
This system was posted by someone else (can't remember who) but he deserves all the credit. He did all the work on finding the data. I just want to track it. Since I will be playing it.

Play the road team on the ML (if favorites) or the PL (if dogs) for ONLY a 2 game series. IF the road team won their last home game.

Historical Data:
2008-2009  55 A bets  23 B bets  7  losses
2007-2008  43 A bets  18 B  bets  4 losses
2006-2007  50 A  bets  9 B bets  7 losses
2005-2006   57 A bets 10 B  bets  4  losses

Tonight Edmonton fell in to the system and won the A bet.
 
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Posted: #2
sl....Glad to see you started a new thread with this one.  I think there is good potential here.  Especially in light of the fact that most of us following the NHL threads are playing just the A and B games of that Morrison system.  Thats basically no different than playing a 2 game road trip anyways....
 
Thanks for posting this....Glad to have caught your EDM posting earlier today in enough time! 
 
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Posted: #3
Thursday, October 15:
Lightning @ Senators @ Penguins 

Will post it again on the 15th, but wanted it out there so I don't forget it.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #4
great work!
this looks really good.
 
i play a bunch of nhl chases so it seems like thres money to be made on every game (sometimes on both teams!)
 
gl
 
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by slwholesales:

This system was posted by someone else (can't remember who) but he deserves all the credit. He did all the work on finding the data. I just want to track it. Since I will be playing it.

Play the road team on the ML (if favorites) or the PL (if dogs) for ONLY a 2 game series. IF the road team won their last home game.

Historical Data:
2008-2009  55 A bets  23 B bets  7  losses
2007-2008  43 A bets  18 B  bets  4 losses
2006-2007  50 A  bets  9 B bets  7 losses
2005-2006   57 A bets 10 B  bets  4  losses

Tonight Edmonton fell in to the system and won the A bet.

so far so good for you but ........................................

Not sure where you got those stats from because they are not accurate.

Went thru the whole 08 - 09 schedule/results for all teams and found 20 losses for this "system" last year alone.

20 times a team won their home game then immediately went on the road for 2 games plus  and lost both by 2 or more goals. 

It happened to Calgary 3 times and Buff twice.

Just throwing this out there for everyone that this system is not automatic.

Best of Luck.

 
Prospect
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Posted: #6
Thanks Puppet....Just another reminder that we should ALL be doing our own homework on these systems when they are posted.  Nobody should be taking anyone's statistics at face value.  Puppet, how many A and B wins did you find on this?  Was it enough to offset the losses and make it profitable nonetheless??? 
 
Still a system that bears watching I think....just maybe not one to blindly tail just yet?
 
Prospect
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by KMang:

Thanks Puppet....Just another reminder that we should ALL be doing our own homework on these systems when they are posted.  Nobody should be taking anyone's statistics at face value.  Puppet, how many A and B wins did you find on this?  Was it enough to offset the losses and make it profitable nonetheless??? 
 
Still a system that bears watching I think....just maybe not one to blindly tail just yet?


I am going to double check this myself when i get some time. Thanks to Puppet. I didn't have time to do it before... and probably won't until the end of the week. But i will be sure to get it done.
 
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Posted: #8
When going thru each team last year, I only was looking for the double loss by 2 or more goals.
 
While doing this, I didn't break down A , B wins as I should have.
It would have saved alot of time if I had.
 
Back to the drawing board, when time permits.
 
Best of Luck.
.
 
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Posted: #9
Puppet - Just want to check something...when you say the system actually had 20 losses last year were you counting the dogs as +1.5 plays or all plays on the moneyline?
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by puppetm716:

so far so good for you but ........................................

Not sure where you got those stats from because they are not accurate.

Went thru the whole 08 - 09 schedule/results for all teams and found 20 losses for this "system" last year alone.

20 times a team won their home game then immediately went on the road for 2 games plus  and lost both by 2 or more goals. 

It happened to Calgary 3 times and Buff twice.

Just throwing this out there for everyone that this system is not automatic.

Best of Luck.



only two game road trips, not two plus
 
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Posted: #11
Yes, this is only for 2 games on the road after a win at home....

Thanks for clarifying that Spreader. I am going to run the numbers myself though just to make sure.
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by slwholesales:

Yes, this is only for 2 games on the road after a win at home....

Thanks for clarifying that Spreader. I am going to run the numbers myself though just to make sure.

Play the road team on the ML (if favorites) or the PL (if dogs) for ONLY a 2 game series. IF the road team won their last home game.

This was interpretted as play only 2 games on road. If this was in error I apologize as the findings have to be recalculated. 

my findings included schedules  Home (win)   Away Away  Home and                                          Home (win)   Away Away  Away

What you are saying it means you need to find a team playing the following format only

Home   Away   Away   Home

Once again if that is the case then I apologize and had no intention of misleading anyone.

Best of Luck

 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by stickbit:

Puppet - Just want to check something...when you say the system actually had 20 losses last year were you counting the dogs as +1.5 plays or all plays on the moneyline?

For what its worth It was posted lost both by 2 or more goals thus dogs +1.5.

Obviously its back to the drawing board to recheck actual stats.

Best of Luck

 

 

 
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Posted: #14
Looking for H A A H format I checked Calgary and their 3 losses stand from last year.   Buff 1 loss.
 
Just a start to get the numbers right.
 
Will have to finish later.
 
Best of luck
 
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Posted: #15
No problem Puppet it happens!
 
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Posted: #16
Using the historical data posted for last season 08 - 09
 
55 A bets   23 B bets and 7 losses
 
Using this as an example.
 
If you wanted to win $100 per bet
 
32 games would win on A bet  $3200
16 games would win on B Bet  $1600
  - of course this would mean recooping losses from A plus 
    profitting the $100 goal per wager thus the net $1600.
 
That gives you a + $4800 for the system
 
Now you have to factor in the 7 losses.   Once again just using this as an example most ML or PL end up at 200 to make 100.
 
7 losses from A bets = -$1400 (7 x 200)
7 losses from B bets = -$4200 (7 x 600) - as you are trying to 
                          recoop 200 A loss + make $100 profit, the B 
                          wager would be to win $300 which would cost
                          $600. 
 
The 7 losses would result in - $5600
 
 
 + $4800 - $5600 = -$800 for year
 
Does anyone else have a different interpretation on what the profits would be using last years posted record?
 
Not trying to downgrade or insult anyone.
Just trying to see if this "system" is actually profitable.
 
Thanks
 
 
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Posted: #17
The bigger question  would be how many of the 7 losses would of been won with a C bet?
 
Prospect
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Posted: #18
from last season there was a 91.7% chance of winning on game A or B (55 + 23 + 7 = 85, 55 + 23 = 78, so 78 out of 85 is 91.7%).
Thats means if you happen to be in the 9% that dont win in A or B,  you have at least a 91% chance of winning in the next 2 games. so maybe look at this as 2 game chase, but if you lose a B bet, you chase a 3rd game as the next available A bet?
 
i dont know enough about math, but the odds must be extremely low of getting 2 consecutive series where both the A and B bet lose.
 
based on the stats in the first post, these are the % of winning on an A or B:
2007-2008  93.8%
2006-2007  89.3%
2005-2006  94.3%
 
 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by HECTAR:

The bigger question  would be how many of the 7 losses would of been won with a C bet?

How would a "C" bet factor in?

 

The system supposedly is  Home  Away Away  Home

When a team wins at home, they will win 1 of next 2 away games.

I already went thru the games and in a Home (win) Away Away Away format there would be 20 losses last year.

There is no 'C" wager

Best of Luck

 
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Posted: #20
Wouldn't it be 71 out of 78 chance to win an A or B bet?
 
There were 78 total bets 55 (A) 23 (B) of which 7 lost.
 
Regardless the bottom line is does this seem like it is profitable over the whole season?
 
Especially laying 2 to 1 odds.
 
Anyone else with any input?
 
Thanks
 
Prospect
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by HECTAR:

The bigger question  would be how many of the 7 losses would of been won with a C bet?


There is NO C bet - this is only for 2 game away series. Meaning:
 Home - Away - Away - Home
 
Prospect
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Posted: #22
Puppet - This definitely comes down to proper money management.

This will work using the labby MM process.

How I plan on using it (MontanaMax does it this way), is like this:

FROM MONTANAMAX:
My own personal MM angle:

split the -2.55 units  (lost on Min in gm1)   by 2 giving us 1.28 units to round up

apply that 1.28 to the original profit goal of 1 unit

gm2 for me is to win 2.28 units at (+1.5 / -175) being at San Jose

risking 3.99 units to win 2.28 units

If it wins I am half way home
Still need to recoup the other 1.28 units too

So I wait for the next series and add that 1.28 units to the original profit goal in gm1 of the new series and follow to gm2 if necessary until the line is cleared



If gm2 loses here how it looks
gm2 = loses = -3.99 units



Ok its a loss on the record
No problem.......
Here's how we get that back

This series lost 6.54 units

I split that up by 4 (only because of the juice involved it could get very dicey) and repeat the whole process until that line is cleared
Just my opinion. Others are free to do whatever

 6.54 / 4 = 1.63 units

giving us 1.63 units + plus the original profit goal of the next series

gm1 of that would be to win we'll say to keep it easy 2.63 units

And repeat until we get the lost units back plus the profit of others in the meantime

If you happen to still be confused.......
Its ok -  it took me time to get this method down too in the past
Follow along on the bench and observe how we are doing it and then you may understand through that
I also suggest for you to read through the thread and study some more so you have a grasp

 
Prospect
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by puppetm716:

Using the historical data posted for last season 08 - 09
 
55 A bets   23 B bets and 7 losses
 
Using this as an example.
 
If you wanted to win $100 per bet
 
32 games would win on A bet  $3200
16 games would win on B Bet  $1600
  - of course this would mean recooping losses from A plus 
    profitting the $100 goal per wager thus the net $1600.
 
That gives you a + $4800 for the system
 
Now you have to factor in the 7 losses.   Once again just using this as an example most ML or PL end up at 200 to make 100.
 
7 losses from A bets = -$1400 (7 x 200)
7 losses from B bets = -$4200 (7 x 600) - as you are trying to 
                          recoop 200 A loss + make $100 profit, the B 
                          wager would be to win $300 which would cost
                          $600. 
 
The 7 losses would result in - $5600
 
 
 + $4800 - $5600 = -$800 for year
 
Does anyone else have a different interpretation on what the profits would be using last years posted record?
 
Not trying to downgrade or insult anyone.
Just trying to see if this "system" is actually profitable.
 
Thanks
 


Puppet the A wins should be 55 and the B wins should be 23. You used 32 for A and 16 for B, Why?

Using your example it should be $5500 in winnings from A and $2300 in winnings from B. Using your calculated 7 losses your profit would be.
$7800 (winnings) - $5600 (7 losses) = +$2200 Making the system profitable.

This does not take in to account the MM system I will be using. Which should increase profits dramatically.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #24
Okay on to the pick!

October 15 (Thursday)
Game 1: Lightning (-230) @ Senators

GL Everyone!

 
 
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Posted: #25
The initial post of "historical data" listed  55 A Bets not 55 A wins
 
then 23 B Bets  7 losses.
 
Once again sorry for the confusion but didn't realize it meant wins.
Never followed this system before.
 
Maybe I'll just sit in the balcony to avoid confusing everyone.
 
I'll be watching with my binoculars though. LOL
 
Best of Luck
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