Non-chase strategies

Hey everyone,

Has anyone here used a system based on stats rather than chasing and come out ahead? I ask because I started one last season but unfortunately lost track about halfway through the year.

I'm specifically talking about MLB by the way, although if you know of any for other sports definitely share them too!

Find the MLB underdog thread - all straight plays, all underdogs so no juice and it is solid until late June. So you should stop then

Why is it only solid till late June?

My theory is the cream starts rising later half of the season as they make a run for the playoffs and teams that are way out of it start phoning it in

Ah ok, I gave the underdog strategies a look and I really like the simplicity of those systems. I only bet lines +130 or more, so underdogs, or, when a favorite is picked and the runline is +130 or higher I go with that. Of course I'm still a rookie at this, what has your experience been with runlines? Also, any over/under strategies? I haven't created a system for that yet, it's so unpredictable.

 I use a non-chase system.  I developed it in 2009 and have been tracking it religiously since.  I have made money betting baseball using the system for the last several years - it's my favorite sport to bet.   I find baseball is 3 parts - Before the trade deadline, after it and then the playoffs.    Thus I track accordingly.  I find the period between the all star break and the first couple of weeks in August is a transition period (once you hit 2nd week in August the teams that have to win start to win) and you gotta be careful.  Once the 2nd week hits you start seeing large lines and you can begin taking teams on the r/line vice su.   Plenty of opportunities to make some bucks for football season. 

I used to look up a variety of variables - left vs right , day of the week, etc etc.  I finally figured the oddsmakers will include what they deem important in the opening line (donbest.com).   So I use the opening line and I use a rating scheme for each starting pitcher so i can do an apples to apples comparison - then I look in my database games with pitches having those numerical ratings along with that opening line and do what history has indicated.  Based on a book  I read about a sportsbook manager - indicating the opening line on a baseball game is 95% based on the starting pitcher - thus I don't evaluate hitters - just starting pitchers and I found that's they key to successful baseball betting - imo.

Good luck to you.

 

Nice, I did not know that the lines were decided that heavily on the SP's of each team. Are the odds on donbest all opening lines or are there updated ones too?