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Not another MLB chase system but......

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Posted: #1
Gentleman and jabronees - greetings
For tracking purposes right now due to how late I am throwing this up. Been busy all day and will follow back up in a few hours explaining everything

These are lines I grabbed the plays at Bookmaker earlier on today

Each series set starting off at risking 1u
It's mainly a dog system with simple rules that can also be broken for extra units but..... at the end of the day, we're all catching a falling knife in this business so be careful

Again, sorry for the vagueness right now - jammed up and preoccupied due to life and all, I'll be back later on tonight as we can then touch base on ev everything

Hou. +136. Gm1
Nyy. -116. Gm1
Bal. +102. Gm1
 
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Posted: #2
Is this a chase system dude? If so how many games and do you have any records?
 
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Posted: #3
This reminds me of a certain scene from Spaceballs, yes its a chase system 

Back now......

So far 
2-0 ... +2.3u 
with 1 series open Nyy

It's rpi based so if there's a way to back test rpi ratings in the past, then be my guess and apply the other filters that can be tracked completing the formula of the result. I couldn't find one so once I saw a consistent and profitable enough pattern out of many variances with the goal of mitigating risk and maximizing profit, then I followed it for a month - looked solid...... so the only record I got is what I layer on the line from my accounts at 5dimes and bookmaker. 

Much of the fruit from the foundation of filters I use st from the greats of times past and their fundamental rules to chasing and some of the guys here that have been holding it down running things over time.

And that's the beauty to it all..... the grind in the chase
Otherwise we wouldn't have the irony of Nascar

Rules coming right up
However I can provide those records in my respect to my privacy and keep it real, I'll be glad to. Let's just say we're onto something here guys and I believe though I still do my thing, maybe a better edge can be added along the way with input and collaboration 
 
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Posted: #4
Just like Fight Club.......
Stay away from the Angels, they are Sd Chargers of MLB
You bet on them..... they lose - you bet against them..... they win
Bet at your own risk when involved with the Angels

Moving on......
Thanks first off to the likes of Danrules and such putting in a lot here over time. I use to be around years back under another handle when SN was running things with his system (and boy was that a fun ride, thanks man) back then but life gets in the way, long story short..... it's glad to be back

So now the team betting on - these are the basic rules that can be broken but at own risk

Must be the lower ranked of the match up rpi wise  (I use espn) and with in .25 of that range for optimum results. One can stray out of that range as a few points here or there if they believe there is value elsewhere in the equation that can over compensate for the risk of breaking this rule 

The team betting on must not be 3-7 or worse in their last 10 games and not be in a 3 game losing streak or more

The same goes for the team betting against. They must not be 7-3 or better in their last 10 games and not be on a win streak of 3 games or more

Now.... these rules can be broken to add more plays if one sees value elsewhere I'm the match-up for the dog to win at least one game. It hasn't failed me breaking the rules in the past but again talk is cheap, what I will do is explain why a certain in play I choose is chosen breaking said rule like tonight and Baltimore and Houston with those series in the books......

For record purposes, I will be starting with a BN of 200 units and chasing like this.....

Gm ... 1 ... risking 1u to win ____
Gm ... 2 ... risking 2u to win ____
Gm ... 3 ... risking 2u-4u depending on variables to win ___
Gm ... 4 ... if needed, continue forth with arbitraded risk amount

Reason with the flexibility is because most series are underdogs so it helps to fall back and be conservative going deep while it's only icing on the cake the deeper they go in net profits won thanks to the olde adage of dogs winning 44% of the time 
 
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Posted: #5
Most all other stats and such I threw out the window. Inflated lines too gets ya some nice juice back. Baseball is the one sport where no matter how much stats and trends one can put research into making a spot play, it doesn't always come out to say the least. My goal here do to a busy life for which I'm trying to get back around here and bring the heat is at least to devise a system to where little time is put into research via mechanical betting and sticking to the system. The root of these rule breaks comes from the eye test. Something stats can't deny but those intangibles on what may give a certain team an edge in a certain matchup. It's nice feeling to call it a night, check the scores and to check the account without having to put mad time into it. Much respect to you guys out there using computer systems and spreadsheets and all...... I'm dumb like Rocky on that stuff but love the input like Johnny 5. It's how at least I got to became a baseball fan...... through sports betting, odd but yet how moral - lol.....
 
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Posted: #6
Ok.....
Nyy series is still open, lost tonight. Surely more play will come tomorrow. Sometimes it all depends how the numbers and that gut feeling pan out. Some sets, I had up to 8 series going, the worst was 1, kept it conservative and stuck to the rules then. 

Bal series was suppose to be a no play because they were on a 3 gm losing streak and Was was at least either on a 3 gm win streak or 7-3 in their last 10, eithernor, I forget. Being good on the road didn't help but Bal countered that with a better home record. I usually don't go too deep into stats and trends for that can get crazy. I mainly chose bet on them for the series was because they were home to a twin city rival mainly utilizing the value of intangibles. 

Help yourself to any changes or rule breaking but you are on your own. Following all of these rules limits the number of plays but they seemed to be the most solid to win at least a game in.

Now with Houston, actually Pit was the play due to being  the lower ranked rpi team but I chose to flip the play because their respective rpi ratings were a few points apart and compared to the moneylines...... I saw greater value in running with Hou as the dog because actually one of my series losses was sticking to the rules but the dog in the series was a fav all 3 games having me lose 13 units alone instead of the projected 7 units per loss. 

My last series loss was a few weeks back on Laa which is why I'm done with them. They fit all the rules, I lost game one, doubled up and lost game two...... cleared out the rest of my series for some nice profit so was thankful to the betting God's and cut my losses with Laa losing 3 units and moved on. Irony is..... they lost that 3rd game getting swept saving me even more losses. Feel free to bail on a series but don't cry if that next game wins and you're on the sidelines. That sort of just happened to me - I bet half of what I should on a Phi at home to the Dodgers just recently on the 3rd gm risking getting swept gauging the risk vs the payout. They won, I could have won more but I could have lost more so it pays to play it conservative with +money dogs. 

Any day you don't lose money is a good day. Live for another bet - tortoise and the hare.......

 
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Posted: #7
To answer most questions, the basics of a strict applied MM dicipline is keen for overall success. For starters here and record purposes, let's rock a BR of 100 units 

2-0 ... +2.3u
1 set still open and 2 more I'm rolling with today

Nyy ..... gm2 ... +125 ... risking 2u to win 2.5u 
Nym .... gm1 ... +155 ... risking 1u to win 1.5u
Phi ...... gm1 ... +148 ... risking 1u to win 1.4u

I round down with decimals and such to keep it humble
The lines I use are from sportsbookspy at pregame.com
Great tool for me at least conveying an average of the top 6 sportsbooks online in conjuction with where the money is going and where the public is. 

The breakdown:
Nym is suppose to be a no play because Stl is 7-3 in their last 10 games so this is on me if they get swept. But all in all, my gut tells me that through the stats and all Stl and Nym are just about even with in this match up and so let's dance..... 
What do I got to lose? 7 units max on the series.... digestible 
Only risk what you are willing to lose

Now the Sf/Lad series is suppose to be a play but they both got the same rpi ranking as per ESPN (which happens). So I looked a bit further into it and felt that it was best to layoff this series as a whole kotntaking either side due to some stats and projected money lines

Mia would of been another play breaking some rules but after stepping back to gauge that match up as a whole..... I felt it's best to stay on the sidelines for Kc seems like a freightrain right now winning 8 in a row and 9-1 in their last 10 games though they suck on the road, would you be willing to bet and chase against that? I won't but its cool if Mia wins at least one game for they seem like similar teams intangible wise. I'll just wait for a better opportunity 

That's it for this set of series
Next round comes Thur and Fri
Touch base later on today's results

Ps. What to do if a certain game gets rained out?
Deal with it and apply MM accordingly - that's MLB for ya
 
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Posted: #8
Let's see how the boys done last night
Entering the night 
2-0 ... +2.3u 
With one series pending 

Nyy won closing out that series. Here's how the numbers play out
Gm1 .... L .... -1.1u
Gm2 ... W ... +2.5u
Totalling ..... +1.4u won

Nym
Gm1 ... W ... +1.5u

Phi
Gm1 .... L .... -1.0u ... series still open

Ending the night with
4-0 ... +5.2u
And one series open

I don't count units won or loss in the overall tally until the series is closed out. Otherwise that would be like buying a stock and price A and counting your chickens before they hatch having the stock being at price B but that's not how it works in the real world which is why wagering accordingly with proper MM in the BR is always keen (as in here starting with 100u). But I totally understand how others here and around the way plug in the up to date unit count for that's how my sportsbooks read it. I'm trying just to keep things simple on paper. I'm open to changing that if that makes things more accurate daily based upon the consensus 

Be back later on for my Phitens line 
 
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Posted: #9
Good thing this system doesn't play on lines. This is one of those funny lines like in that George Thorogood song one Whisky One Shot One Beer. Depending on said variables..... Vegas on purpose opened the line where it did and so the public is dancing on the fence on both the ML and RL. This could duck if one specifically played the RL but if your book carries and alt line or your local accepts that, then you're good minus whatever extra juice if you got the balls for it. Only bad news for me is no +money on the dog line tonight, straight up basically but it's all good either way - onward and upward we go......


Phi ... Gm2 ... -106 risking 2.1u to win 2u


Oh... and just in case, as with other systems - I wonder how playing the +1.5/RL would fit. My take away is that I can't deny maybe the sets of series would close out sooner..... but there wouldn't be the benefit of that +money action from the win

On a side note..... that +1.5/PL in NHL is soooo money, you wouldn't believe it. One just have to have the balls to run with up to -250 or a bit more but boy is there value there wjem applied properly. Well.... accept for that dreaded empty net goal that kills ya but that why we bet...... for the action

Speaking of action......
I usually play MLB with action and not listed unless specifically warranted but don't sleep in that, there's value there too. I just mainly don't care for it
 
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Posted: #10
Is going well so far. Do you keep a breakdown of Games? I.e. G1 70% G2 20% etc.etc
 
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Posted: #11
Thanks man.
 But as they say in baseball....... if I heard correctly
"You're only as good as your next day starting pitcher"..... 

Hmm... I havent looked into that but give me before or by the weekend is out to look back on tje record ans how those numbers shook out 

You never know when a series could lose which is always possible but in the long wrong run still be profitable exponentially adhering to the .02-.03 % of BN per bet unit in conjuction with it increasing as the season goes along.

One way I look at certain wagering styles as per chasing or heavy ML's is having the thick skin to whether a losing streak here and there and being in position BR wise to take a hit for its not if.......... but when........

If only I found this sooner in the season but at least we'll see here if we can be onto something here and also to tweak or so in hopes to improve it for next season if it stays consistent being that I personally couldn't find a way to backtest it




Phi ... Gm2 ... W ... +2u
-1u from the 1st gm 
Totaling ... +1u on the series

YTD
5-0 ... +6.2u


 
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Posted: #12
Next up.....

On this round so far only today we start with one series, the rest will be tomorrow pending on what happens today

We got
Cleveland ... Gm1... +147 

At Tex which is a system play. Tex has a good home record and is one of the best teams but I think it's still cool being that Clev is up there too and on the road they are ok enough in my eyes to squeak out at least one win in the series in what would be lining up some quality valuations ML wise. 

Hmm.... possible playoff matchup? 
This late into the season, no matter which sport, good teams size each other up and play up to one another as the hate begins. Dogs get value towards the end with inflated fav lines in general. 

Oh..... - lol.....
One of my books I just noticed an option to bet little league baseball
That gets NFL Monday "C'mon.... man......."
Is that what we're doing now? Betting on 12 yr olds?
Sheesh..... 

 
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Posted: #13
-1u there gm1 on Clev 
Onto gm2 tomorrow and more 
BOL to all doing their thing out there 
 
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Posted: #14
Let's see how this system holds up now. I'm not big on this round but the system says to roll with these guys as it is a dog system. No guts..... no glory......


YTD
5-0 ... +6.2u
One series open

Clev ... gm2 ... -141 ... risking 1.4u to win 1u 
(explanation on why below)
Already -1u from yest. Only risking to win that 1u back now thanks to this line and being a 4 gm set with the goal of chalking up the series as a draw. I will add the results of this serie's into final tally into the YTD when it's completed. Reason being I'd rather not win on this set then to lose more possibly just in case they get swept mainly being that I have a big card here, the goal is to attain units one way or another, not to be a hero and shoot myself in the foot 

Phi ... gm1 ... +150
Mil ... gm1 ... +108
Nyy ... gm1 ... -117
Kc .... gm1 ... +150
Tb .... gm1 ... +128
Chw . gm1 ... -126


I'm thinking of later adding maybe. Will confirm if I do or not
Tor ... gm1 ... -1.5/-115

Just for kixx, but really greed, let's be real. I do see some value with Tor -1.5 in this series to cover at least one of the games but will I be a man and put my money where my posts are?

I felt the same but not as strong with Sf in their match up against Atl so I'm laying off that series

In ways I'm like Lad at home to the Cubs to win at least one game but overall I'm falling back due to Chi being a freight train via their win streak and killing it in their last 10 games not to mention having a quality road record. No thanks but good for my man Chooch - teaming back up with Utley




 
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Posted: #15
No dice on that Tor play, not pulling the trigger on it. 
Main reason is I want to focus on the plays I'm already invested in just in case some of these series go deep. 
That Tor play looks good but not good enough to blow another 7-10 units possibly if they don't win by 2 at any point but they could easily against Little Big League there.
As a fan.... just enjoy the game sometimes and keep it simple. The betting game Gods will thank you later 
 
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Posted: #16
Cle ... gm2 ... -141 .... W ... +1u -1u (gm1) = 0
Phi ... gm1 ... +150 ... L .... -1u
Mil ... gm1 ... +108 ... L .... -1u
Nyy ... gm1 ... -117 ....W ...+1u
Kc .... gm1 ... +150 ... W ...+1.5u
Tb .... gm1 ... +128 ... L ... -1u
Chw . gm1 ... -126 .... L ... -1.2

Cle takes us to 6-0 but no gain in units so that's still at +6.2u

YTD
8-0 ... +8.7u
With 4 series still open 



 
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Posted: #17
Left Standing

Mil ... gm2 ... +138 ... risking 2u to win 2.76u
Phi ... gm2 ... +195 ... risking 2u to win 3.90u
Tb .... gm2 ... +175 ... risking 2u to win 3.50u

Sea .. gm2 ... +137 ... risking 2u to win 2.74u



Now.... part of the bad feeling I got on this round,  I'm doing this. Not to mention betting on Milwaukee in the first place when they are roughly near the basement 

That Chw series for which I already lost -1.2u on I'm switching and now going with Sea. Set aside from the pitching and injuries this where Vegas messes with us because I don't know why yesterday's and today's lines are what they are

Chw is the lower rated rpi team in the matchup but yet for the 2nd gm now is even a greater favorite. I don't like this and this is how I lost 13 units on a series strictly following the rules. I broke them once or twice before flip-flopping and it paid off but it easily could back fire. 

My reasoning mainly is to hedge my risk via the juice invested vs the payout because I don't see how Chw can be this favored in the series when they should be a small dog or a small fav. So here's my set to finish up on this series 

 
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Posted: #18
0-4 
On the night
Lol.... "pain don't hurt" - Roadhouse

Seeing where I went wrong so far was
Playing Mil when I shouldn't have discounted some key doubts
Switching to Sea
And cold feet with Cleveland
Like Pete Carroll...... one can so easily outsmart them self
The loss of current and potential units can add up but we keep it moving

Onto Sunday......
Adjustments will be made for tomorrow and the long run 
 
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Posted: #19
Don't have much time so I'll make this quick
I'll be back later on tonight conveying the foundations to these wagers and forward looking adjustments and will tally's of records before posting up going back over a month or so 

The rest of these games I will only be seeking to win 1u per game minus the +money odds from today
I'll total up the numbers later on as well


                                     Series

Phi ... gm3 ... +125 ... -3u
Mil ... gm3 ... +121 ... -3u
Tb .... gm3 ... +101 ... -3u
Sea .. gm3 ... +109 ... -3.2u

You win when you lose
How'd that work our for Glen Sather when he made the young kids of the Edmonton Oilers stay out on the bench and watch the 84' Islanders win their 4th cup in a row beating them and skating around the rink with it and all
Let it burn.....
 
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Posted: #20
83' I meant, my bad there
 
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Posted: #21
Ok... wheww.... got this sloppy round over with
I knew were I went wrong and so won't make those bad decisions again leading to that earing feeling I got filling out this card so at least it doesn't hurt that bad. 

Case in point:
I forced Mil when I should of never played on them mainly due to then being in the bottom 3rd of the league......... for a reason too

Trying to be cute on Chw/Sea series. As I warned, doesn't always work but I wanted to keep it real like JPP on the 4th of July

And not risking more on Clev to attain that extra unit instead of what I only lost

And back to Chw...... I wasn't too big on that series and yet Nyy was a small favor too the first game. As I lost before on a dog in the series being favored, the rule should say now just don't bet in a dog that favored - but one who is successful will read between the lines of each match up so as in this case...... I felt safer taking Nyy then Chw in this round but the system said take Chw. Nex time I won't force that bet if similar parameters indicate so



This round:
2-2 tonight closing out things ... = 0.0
Overall
5-2 ... -8.2u

Could have been
6-0 ... +6u at least

I could have lost more strictly following MM rules but good thing I  took more gambles and followed some investing tactics cutting my losses while staying committed to the trades - time is relative long story short unless you guys are down for some space time continuum philosophical stuff - lol.... MM can either be real simple or complex. 
The key is stepping back to see the forest as a whole..... not just the trees individually


YTD
11-2 ... -2u


Be back later on tonight for those other records over the past month or so before posting here. 

Read carefully on my MM = my YTD unit total. It's all there or feel free to ask as I can then walk you through it. 

Sidebar:
It's gonna be fun winning those 12 units lost from yesterday back on top of other series - hehehehe..... 


 
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Posted: #22
Long day.....
But its a new week and upon us - a new month
I don't have time to explain why I chose these plays at these units but later tonight I will be back to explain and to also follow up on those darn tally's from before these posts were up

Mia ... -161 ... (to win)1u
Col ... +120 ... risking 1.5u
Bal ... +130 ... risking 1.5u
Cle ... -1.5/-105 ... risking 1u
Chw .. +165 ... risking 1.5u
Sea ... +135 ... risking 1u
Kc ..... +118 ... risking 1.5u




 
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Posted: #23
Long story short for now, I increased some of the units wagered in stronger matchups I feel to help attain some extra units back I lost in that last round. Lol.... yeah I know..... how moral. But the goal is through a modified exponential approach to MM..... one can see how fun financial engineering can be

Moving on....... 
In looking into when these plays have been documented, they go back to July 1 when I started laying on them. Now I can copy and past 10-20 pages being that I'm not good with computers to put that info into a spread sheet or so. Unless somebody out there wants to, I will write them down and post the plays up manually. If anyone thinks I'm could be lying, triple dog dare me and ask for certain dates about what I bet when on who if one were not to believe me. I can easily copy and paste bet tickets to back it up Now.... this is a lot of work to do so I apologize in the delay in putting this together. Life is in the way and all, sucks being an adult - lol..... This should be another day or two to post up
 
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Posted: #24
Mia ... -161
Hard decision on who to take in this series, both evenly matched up and only .02 points off in rpi so I figure because Mia is favored now, get that out of the way and seek a win on a better line if they lose today trying out a more conservative way of kicking off a series with fav and losing
Actually in messed up in posting Mia
I risked 1u to win .62u (to hedge against losing gm1)
L = -1u as documented on the books if anyone needs to see

Col ... +120 
System play here which I like the match up and have a good feeling it will pay off eventually so got that settled with
W = +1.8u

Bal ... +130 
System play and another quality match up to win at least one. I think this is the set here I broke a rule on for Tor was I think 7-3 in their last 10 before tonight. Bal is good at home and Tor is basically 500 on the road so I see some value here still
L = -1.5u

Cle ... -1.5/-105 
Yeah... - lol... this is a variance the old bad team vs good team runline system. Nothing special, just having some fun here when I see the potential to nab a quick unit here or there from these matchups 
L = -1u

(I noticed in yrs past, over inflated lines on the favs helped nicely on the strike rate win possibilities for those +1.5/dogs that are more even then risking fair to heavy juice on 'em. I will watch this over the week or two and see how it goes posting up here. Long story short why this happens, that's baseball for ya - a lot of things don't make sense)


 
 
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Posted: #25
Chw .. +165 
System play that I like for some reason having the feeling Det is overrated usuallly for how Vegas segs thines up whem they arn't good no more so that I'm betting that will pay off
L = -1.5u

Sea ... +135
System play I'm not too big on being that Tex is top dog in their respect and wins 2/3's of their games at home so that is why I layed less here just in case they get swept
L = -1u

Kc ..... +118 
System play I liked with great value too in this matchup. Not so with the juice but with the chance of a win and a win we got
W = +1.1u



Tonight's results
2-5






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