O/U Park Factor system 2013

Degen, I'll take a look at the spreadsheet in alittle bit, have some work stuff to do. I hate when work stuff gets in the way of gambling. lol

For Seattle, I have them at 12 unders, 11 overs at home so 52.2%. Not sure where the 56% is coming from.

Hilarious. I'll check it out in a bit. Hoping this is much easier than me tracking manually. Thanks!

I've kept track of the over unders on my own spreadsheet. I use the lines I've been getting from Station casions which is where I ahve my online account. So we could have a game or two where one of us got a Push while the other had the O/U. With as few games as we have had, that could move the % a few points.

I didn't keep track of the % of each team when played. I should have done that. As we get further into the season we won't see many teams at all with 60% (maybe the Pirates under at home). I'll track that moving forward and also figure out the plays that I did earlier and report back my findings.

I would not be opposed to that.

Monday 6/3 results:

Oak/Mil wins on the A game

Col/Cin loses on A game and goes to B game Tuesday.

Record: 4-0

A: 3-2

B: 0-1

C: 1-0

For Tuesday 6/4:

Tampa 56% @ Detroit 64% Over

Minn 55.5% @ KC 56.5% Under

Balt 67.8% @ Hou 62.1 % Over

Mets 68% @ Wash 58.3% Over

Col/Cin B game Over

Thanks for the new sheet. I have not been factoring Pushes at all, been treating them as a non-game. The more I think about that, it's probably the wrong way to go. Are you figuring it into the percentages just as a tie would lower a winning %?

Tuesday plays:

With Degen's spreadsheet, 3 plays that I had were filtered out using the Covers lines and factoring pushes. Since I do not factor pushes into the % and I use my local lines, any play that I have that is filtered out by the spreadsheet, I will make as unofficial plays and track seperately. Hope it's not too confusing.

Official plays:

Col/Cin  Over B game

Balt/Hou Over A game

Official Record: 4-0

A: 3-2

B: 0-1

C: 1-0

Unoffical Record

0-0

Tuesday plays:

Tampa/Detroit Over A Game

Minn/KC  Under A game

Mets/Wash Over A game

I think factoring pushes is a good way to go. It will result in fewer plays but most likely stronger plays. On a 3 game chase if game 1 is a push, I end the chase (no 2 game chases). If game 2 is a push we are down to a 2 game chase (1 and 3), so accounting for pushes is needed IMO as they don't help us.  A team that is 14-11-1 should have an over % of 53.8% which accurately reflects 14 overs in 26 games.

There were a couple of games that Covers had as a push that I had as either an over or under. Covers might have had 8 as the number while my book had 7.5 or 8.5.

Ok, sorry to do this guys but after a few back and forths with Degen regarding how to handle pushes, had to make some changes. I'm scrapping unoffical plays. I will be looking at the push data and making a determination if a series is an offical play or not. Washington and TB are good examples. Considering the push data Wash is still at 53.85 and combined with Mets 64%, I'm making it an official play.

TB drops all the way down to 48.28% when pushes are factored - not a play.

Also, there needs to be at least a 3 game difference in O/U numbers so Minn at 12-14-1 is not a play. Sorry Degen for another filter.

Ok, enough talk, here are the official plays for Tuesday:

Official plays:

Col/Cin Over B game

Balt/Hou Over A game

NYM/Wash Over A game

Record: 4-0

A: 3-2

B: 0-1

C: 1-0