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Over 1.5 goals in a period bet/chase.

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Posted: #1
This bet has potential, been doing well, another hit tonight in the Blackhawks game! Get on board fellas!
 
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Posted: #2
do you play every game?
 
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Posted: #3
Finished games today hit both O/U

 
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Posted: #4
No, I usually only play games that have a total of 5.5 goals for game or over. 
 
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Posted: #5
so far,that is
 
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Posted: #6
and you chase up to 3 periods?
 
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Posted: #7
Gonna chase the Blues and Rangers tonight. Teams rank 5th and 6th in the league in 1st period goals. Ov. 1.5 goals @ -115. 
 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by For_the_win:

Gonna chase the Blues and Rangers tonight. Teams rank 5th and 6th in the league in 1st period goals. Ov. 1.5 goals @ -115. 

Easy CASH!
 
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Posted: #9
Tonight Caps and Devils for over 1st period. Both teams are in top ten for goals scored in the first at 4th and 7th ranked. 

Also a strong play on the Rangers game, they rank in the top five for goals for in first and goals against in the first this season.

Good luck it tailing. 
 
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Posted: #10
I like your thinking.Do you use SDQL? I will be tailing
 
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Posted: #11
Hey what's up brother.. you know I'm all about chases even if it's about a sports I don't know jack sht about but I can pull all the trends and stats on SDQL.. let me know how you plan to do your chases and what your criteria are and we can tighten up the filters and score some cash.. good luck.. shoot me a message if you want to keep it off the thread
 
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Posted: #12

 Extremist be good to have you onboard thanks for your work on first inning baseball  I think for_the_win has a good idea here

 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by The_Extremist:

Hey what's up brother.. you know I'm all about chases even if it's about a sports I don't know jack sht about but I can pull all the trends and stats on SDQL.. let me know how you plan to do your chases and what your criteria are and we can tighten up the filters and score some cash.. good luck.. shoot me a message if you want to keep it off the thread

Extremist, I was wondering when you would come around. haha. Yes, I know you are spot on with the SDQL. Heres something i was tossing around. 

If we could look at NHL teams who score the most in each period and who also give up the most first period goals. Just like you were running for MLB 1st inning overs. Could we morph that into the NHL system. Only problem is our sample size is small for this season. I was also thinking of cutting the chase down to a break even amount the second and third periods to minimize exposure? 

Or should it be ran on a game by game bases, chasing only our best bets for that day (ex. total for game over 6, top 10 in scoring in first ect.) 
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by For_the_win:


Extremist, I was wondering when you would come around. haha. Yes, I know you are spot on with the SDQL. Heres something i was tossing around. 

If we could look at NHL teams who score the most in each period and who also give up the most first period goals. Just like you were running for MLB 1st inning overs. Could we morph that into the NHL system. Only problem is our sample size is small for this season. I was also thinking of cutting the chase down to a break even amount the second and third periods to minimize exposure? 

Or should it be ran on a game by game bases, chasing only our best bets for that day (ex. total for game over 6, top 10 in scoring in first ect.) 

yes, the sample size is small and another thing, even though so far this year there are more over 1.5 1st innings than unders, that will change. I looked at all previous years and there are more games that 1st inning hit under 1.5 than did the over. So something to consider.

I can let you know which team right now have the highest percentage/most over 1.5 so far and those teams are:

Jets, Maple Leafs, Sharks, Canucks at 100% of their games going over 1.5 1st period
Bruins, Canadians at 80% over
Oiles at 75%

the sample size is small and I don't know jack sht about hockey bro but I know #s and I don't know how you want to set this up. 
now this was based on the total being whatever..not 5.5 or 6. 
 
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Posted: #15
also.. do you want to chase the same team for 3 games or 3 different teams in the same day? or what? Im not sure what your chase consists of.
 
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Posted: #16
tomorrow,Toronto as a elite team on this system and a 6 total -125 O and +100 U I'm chasing 3 periods using in game betting. Between periods in hockey is a lot longer than between innings in baseball which fixes the problem I had with in game betting in MLB. Looks like you guys are on to something
 
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Posted: #17
Extremist, I am still looking at things and will get back soon. Thanks for the data earlier. 

Tonight, on the caps/leafs (both top three in goals scored in first) and Pitt/rangers (both teams rank high in goals against in the first and rank decently in goals in first period). Three inning chase on each.

I have also been placing round robing bets on all games over 6 goals, has been doing alright for fun. 

Good luck guys
 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by For_the_win:

Extremist, I am still looking at things and will get back soon. Thanks for the data earlier. 

Tonight, on the caps/leafs (both top three in goals scored in first) and Pitt/rangers (both teams rank high in goals against in the first and rank decently in goals in first period). Three inning chase on each.

I have also been placing round robing bets on all games over 6 goals, has been doing alright for fun. 

Good luck guys

Winners....no finger nails left because that Toronto game. Round Robin is a flop....
 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by For_the_win:

Extremist, I am still looking at things and will get back soon. Thanks for the data earlier. 

Tonight, on the caps/leafs (both top three in goals scored in first) and Pitt/rangers (both teams rank high in goals against in the first and rank decently in goals in first period). Three inning chase on each.

I have also been placing round robing bets on all games over 6 goals, has been doing alright for fun. 

Good luck guys

so are you chasing over 1.5 for each period? not sure Im following
 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by The_Extremist:


so are you chasing over 1.5 for each period? not sure Im following

Hey buddy, yes currently chasing for each period. 

Guidelines currently: at least O/U of 6, chase to win one period of 1.5 over. 3 period chase. 

May need to rethink this if you state the Under 1.5 is better. This bet seems to be cooling off some. 

With that being said gonna roll with Det/Tor chase for the over 1.5 tonight. Detroit stats suck for overs in the 1st but Toronto is at the top and I hope they will pull it through for us. Good luck
 
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Posted: #21

As I hoped Toronto rolled! On to tomorrow.

 
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Posted: #22
how are Vancouver and Boston ranked for 1st period over
 
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Posted: #23

so I did a bit of # crunching and if you are trying to chase any game where there's over 1.5 goals per period for a 3 period chase you would win if the juice was even. You would be up 248 units last year, but we know there's def juice involved so I can't calculate the exact amount. NOW, if you decide to chase ANY team after 1st period where there was less than 1.5 goals, (for it to have over 1.5 goals for one of the next 2 periods) you can win the same amount of units with risking less money and less juice. And that's without any specific teams. that would a 2 period chase (2nd and 3rd which it's around 79% where the other hits at 89% but with lot more to risk). I did narrow it down to a few teams that have done well in 3 period chase (haven't had a chance to do it for 2 period chase yet) and those teams are: Maple Leafs, Penguins, Predators, Stars, & Islanders. I will look into 2 period chase if that interests you. 

 
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Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by The_Extremist:

so I did a bit of # crunching and if you are trying to chase any game where there's over 1.5 goals per period for a 3 period chase you would win if the juice was even. You would be up 248 units last year, but we know there's def juice involved so I can't calculate the exact amount. NOW, if you decide to chase ANY team after 1st period where there was less than 1.5 goals, (for it to have over 1.5 goals for one of the next 2 periods) you can win the same amount of units with risking less money and less juice. And that's without any specific teams. that would a 2 period chase (2nd and 3rd which it's around 79% where the other hits at 89% but with lot more to risk). I did narrow it down to a few teams that have done well in 3 period chase (haven't had a chance to do it for 2 period chase yet) and those teams are: Maple Leafs, Penguins, Predators, Stars, & Islanders. I will look into 2 period chase if that interests you. 


Thank you for looking into those numbers. The over after an under in the first is interesting esp if it lowers our risk for same return. As always good work and thank you. 

Tonight I'm going with this:

Leafs/Kings over in 1st, chase three periods.

Leafs are hot, ranking 1st in goals scored in 1st, meanwhile Kings are 10th in goals given up in 1st. I feel the Leafs will cash this eventually for us. Good luck if tailing. 
 
 
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Posted: #25

Quote Originally Posted by For_the_win:


Thank you for looking into those numbers. The over after an under in the first is interesting esp if it lowers our risk for same return. As always good work and thank you. 

Tonight I'm going with this:

Leafs/Kings over in 1st, chase three periods.

Leafs are hot, ranking 1st in goals scored in 1st, meanwhile Kings are 10th in goals given up in 1st. I feel the Leafs will cash this eventually for us. Good luck if tailing. 

2nd Period Cash!
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