All Forums | Systems & Strategies

Over under betting system

...
Participants:
Search model icon
Views: 28472
Posts: 101
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2012
Posts: 185
Posted: #51

One more thing (sorry for multiple posts)...

In your Sportsdatabase queries, you can use today-35 and today-55 instead of the symbols, >= and <=.

(less work)

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2011
Posts: 177
Posted: #52
I must not have explained myself very well, I'm sorry...I understand what overs and unders are been in on this racket for a long while and found your numbers interesting, problem is that when I am entering the formula it is giving me this in response:

SU:25290-25290 (0.00, 50.0%)  avg line: -106.4 / -106.4  on / against: -$130,630 / -$130,630  ROI: -2.1% / -2.1%
OU:23498-24568-2410 (0.40, 48.9%)  avg total: 8.7  over / under: -$330,680 / -$139,440  ROI: -6.0% / -2.5%

@BenchCoach:
Yeah, that's what it's supposed to do. When you look at the upper left you got to move your eyes to the second line which starts with
'OU' which means 'over/under'. The next numbers are the relevant ones. For the O's you get '9-9-0', meaning 9 over, 9 under, 0 push.
[/Quote]
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2011
Posts: 177
Posted: #53
I must not have explained myself very well, I'm sorry...I understand what overs and unders are been in on this racket for a long while and found your numbers interesting, problem is that when I am entering the formula it is giving me this in response:

SU:25290-25290 (0.00, 50.0%)  avg line: -106.4 / -106.4  on / against: -$130,630 / -$130,630  ROI: -2.1% / -2.1%
OU:23498-24568-2410 (0.40, 48.9%)  avg total: 8.7  over / under: -$330,680 / -$139,440  ROI: -6.0% / -2.5%

@BenchCoach:
Yeah, that's what it's supposed to do. When you look at the upper left you got to move your eyes to the second line which starts with
'OU' which means 'over/under'. The next numbers are the relevant ones. For the O's you get '9-9-0', meaning 9 over, 9 under, 0 push.
[/Quote]
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2012
Posts: 185
Posted: #54

Quote Originally Posted by CanisMajor:

Also the Mets/Dogers as an Under. 

Ah, I see this one was because not enough starts for one of the pitchers but still unsure about the other two.

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2014
Posts: 139
Posted: #55
Thanks guys. I didn't know the thing with the 'today-x' CanisMajor posted for sportsdb queries. That's a nice hint.

CanisMajor, you were right. In fact I was mowing our big lawn yesterday and forgot to post 3 other bets. which I had planed to do afterwards. I did go 2-2 yesterday instead of 0-1.

Here is the spreadsheet for yesterday with all possible bets, the games with starters with less than 5 runs are already deleted from it: https://www11.pic-upload.de/22.05.14/g1vbbzd3zj4h.png
The green ones would have been bets (as far as meeting the other criterias, which they did yesterday). 
Don't know what my brain was doing and why I forgot it, sorry. Maybe it was dried out from working in the sun for so long.

The other bets would have been:
CIN @ WSH, u 7.0, +107
PHI @ MIA, o 7.5, -109
CHS @ KCR, o 8.0, -114

I would have been more or less even, but as I was too dumb to post the picks I won't include them to my stats in my next post. Sorry guys.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2014
Posts: 139
Posted: #56
Quote Originally Posted by wudl83:

2014-05-21

OAK @ TBR, o 7.5, -107 3-2
Yesterday: 0 w, 1 l, 0 p, -1 u
Overall: 13 w, 7 l, 2 p, +5.82 u

As I said I only include what I have posted. Everything else would be bad manner. If you want to I could upload a screenshot on my calcs for the next bets so you can compare if our numbers match?
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2013
Posts: 190
Posted: #57
i'd appreciate seeing your spreadsheet, if you don't mind. i was also wondering which book you use? you always get way better odds than i do here in vegas. thanks! hopefully this rough patch gets better soon...
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2014
Posts: 139
Posted: #58
Using CanisMajor's hint really makes it much more easier to query, thanks. Still learning all possibilities the query system offers. I think sportsdatabase can be a very useful tool.

Not many possible picks today as a ton of pitchers will be starting with less than 5 starts to date. But besides the game at Boston all matches meet the criterias for a bet.

Calculations:
https://www11.pic-upload.de/22.05.14/g2ts32sx5wxu.png

Picks:
2014-05-22

PHI @ MIA, o 7.5, +113
SFG @ COL, u 9.5, +103
LAD @ NYM, u 6.5, +109
MIL @ ATL, u 7.0, +101
ARI @ STL, u 7.5, -109
HOU @ SEA, u 7.5, -117

Let's hope the pitching gets it done!
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2014
Posts: 139
Posted: #59
Quote Originally Posted by Ordinaryday6:

i'd appreciate seeing your spreadsheet, if you don't mind. i was also wondering which book you use? you always get way better odds than i do here in vegas. thanks! hopefully this rough patch gets better soon...
Calculations will be uploaded from now on as you can see in post #58.

As in the line next to my username above the posts you can see my sportsbook. I am using pinnacle. It doesn't raise any taxes and has the best numbers available over here in europe.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2012
Posts: 185
Posted: #60

wudl,

Great job on coming up with the system.  You have convinced me that the recent team/pitcher results are better than using the season to date results.

I do see something in your spreadsheet from yesterday that does not add up for me.  We agree on all plays except the CIN/WAS play. On that play I see O=21, U=27 = 48  27/48 = .5625 but your spreadsheet shows .5961...

Either I am missing something or there might be a flaw in the the formula that you have entered in that cell.

Canis

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2009
Posts: 56
Posted: #61
Wudl83,

Thanks for all your work here.....it's fun to play with.

I just discovered sportsdatabase and the query possibilities are endless.

One question I have would have to do with the umpire behind the plate.  Some show remarkable tendencies to go over or under.  Any way to work that into the system?

Or maybe just a final check before entering the bet?

Thanks again for sharing.

Pat


 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2014
Posts: 139
Posted: #62
You got to add the pushes to the overs as well as to the unders before dividing them through the sum of the overs+unders+pushes.

In case of the Nats game:
- overs: (21+4)/(21+27+4)
- unders: (27+4)/(21+27+4)

I am not at home right now and can't look into my Excelsheet but I think this could be the problem, right?

I don't want to promise too much, but as I said yesterday I still played around with the backtesting and changed some criterias here and there. It may very well be that I have found something like a whole when betting on overs and unders. This would be the easiest system on earth if the backtest continues to show the numbers it shows me right now. Like I said I don't want to promise anything, but IF the trend goes on I could have found a system with a win pct of .60 or more. And all you need would be a few very easy criterias and only 6 numbers. But let's wait and see. :)
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2014
Posts: 139
Posted: #63
Quote Originally Posted by Buford1:

Wudl83,

Thanks for all your work here.....it's fun to play with.

I just discovered sportsdatabase and the query possibilities are endless.

One question I have would have to do with the umpire behind the plate.  Some show remarkable tendencies to go over or under.  Any way to work that into the system?

Or maybe just a final check before entering the bet?

Thanks again for sharing.

Pat


Thx. 

Hm - I think we really could include this in the system somehow. The only problem I have with things like these is that I want to keep it as simple as possible. I know that you are right, indeed you are! Some umpires show trends as well as teams or pitchers do. But the more variables or numbers I add the more prone to failure the system will become IMO. This is because of the case that different information HAVE to be weighed different. One variable is more important than another. The more variables (or numbers) the more work one has to do. If set up properly I think a system including umpire trends or even other stats would be very very solid. But as I said, the problem will be to weight the different stats/numbers accurately.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2011
Posts: 101
Posted: #64
wudl83==what pct of games are won if team is leading after 5 inn== know that this is off the topic but you are a good stats man==ty
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2007
Posts: 326
Posted: #65
Hey man I'm pulling for you. Get'er done.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2012
Posts: 185
Posted: #66

wudl,

Do you have the record for your overs plays vs your under plays?  If you don't track them, I can go back through the posts.

Thanks.

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2013
Posts: 190
Posted: #67
i've got him at 20-9 (68.97%) in this thread.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2013
Posts: 190
Posted: #68
though, i just remembered that i did change the o/u lines according to my book, if there were any such changes, so perhaps my numbers are inaccurate to his.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2011
Posts: 177
Posted: #69
Plays today?
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2012
Posts: 185
Posted: #70

Quote Originally Posted by BenchCoach:

Plays today?

I can't speak for wudl so these are not HIS plays but using his formula, I come up with:

MIL@MIA o7

BOS@TB o7.5

I do not calculate my Under % the same as wudl as I do not average the under using pushes since an under bet can never push.

https://tinypic.com/r/a2u9fd/8

 

 

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2011
Posts: 177
Posted: #71
Really like your link, thanks for posting...explain to me this theory on not being able to get a push when you are playing an under?
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2012
Posts: 185
Posted: #72

Quote Originally Posted by BenchCoach:

Really like your link, thanks for posting...explain to me this theory on not being able to get a push when you are playing an under?

If I have this wrong, somebody please correct me.

Lets say the line is 7 and you bet the under and I bet the over.

The final score is 3-4 hitting the total of 7.  Your bet, under 7, already busted when the 7th run scored.  My over bet is a push and gets refunded because I landed on the line of 7.

 

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2011
Posts: 177
Posted: #73
No sir you get a push if you play under 7 and the final score lands on 7
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2014
Posts: 16
Posted: #74
Quote Originally Posted by CanisMajor:

If I have this wrong, somebody please correct me.

Lets say the line is 7 and you bet the under and I bet the over.

The final score is 3-4 hitting the total of 7.  Your bet, under 7, already busted when the 7th run scored.  My over bet is a push and gets refunded because I landed on the line of 7.

 

 

You need a new bookie!!

 
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2012
Posts: 185
Posted: #75

Well, I think I need to ask my buddy who explained it to me while I was making the spreadsheet. 

It is interesting that if you look at the pitchers stats on Covers, all the pushes get added to the number of overs he's pitched in.

If he is 4-3-2 on the over under (via sports db), Covers shows him as 6-3.

All Forums | Systems & Strategies
About Us
Contact Us
Careers
Our Team
Brand
Testimonials
Betting Guides
Sportsbook Reviews
Sports Betting News
Podcasts
Responsible Gaming
Sports Betting
US Betting Sites
Canada Betting Sites
Canada Casinos
Best Betting Apps
Contests
Streak Survivor
King of Covers
Ultimate Race
Office Pools
The Covers community has
618,670
lifetime members worldwide
Covers 25 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Site Map Help Privacy Terms of Service youtube logo facebook logo twitter logo instagram logo linkedin logo google news logo
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo
Copyright © 1995 - 2024 CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved.

If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.