Posted:
#1
I have been trying my hand at a less emotional wager,
the over/under. So for example, tonights PHX LAK match
what I do is this:
In a spread-sheet, I record the following data:
how many H2H games have been played
how many home goals
how many away goals
how many season games
how many home goals
how many away goals
last 5 games:
goals for
goals against
The spreadsheet then takes these numbers and gives me this:
a historical based head to head O/U avg
a current season based O/U avg, based on the two teams
a last 5 games played O/U avg based on the two teams
So I know have a historical snapshot, a season-overview snap, and
a picture of where the two teams have been in the last 5 days.
I then combine those three numbers, and blend them to get what
I am calling an "indicator" This number represents, to me, the ideal
point for the over/under. I then simply look at and analyze the data
to decide which way to bet.
I would like to hear some thoughts on this.
for me, I need to get away from betting the
teams themselves, cos I always screw that up.
Thanks for listening people, and please feel free to respond. The
only way we can get better is by sharing and learning!
the over/under. So for example, tonights PHX LAK match
what I do is this:
In a spread-sheet, I record the following data:
how many H2H games have been played
how many home goals
how many away goals
how many season games
how many home goals
how many away goals
last 5 games:
goals for
goals against
The spreadsheet then takes these numbers and gives me this:
a historical based head to head O/U avg
a current season based O/U avg, based on the two teams
a last 5 games played O/U avg based on the two teams
So I know have a historical snapshot, a season-overview snap, and
a picture of where the two teams have been in the last 5 days.
I then combine those three numbers, and blend them to get what
I am calling an "indicator" This number represents, to me, the ideal
point for the over/under. I then simply look at and analyze the data
to decide which way to bet.
I would like to hear some thoughts on this.
for me, I need to get away from betting the
teams themselves, cos I always screw that up.
Thanks for listening people, and please feel free to respond. The
only way we can get better is by sharing and learning!
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