Figured I'd start a new thread for this as to not take away from the focus of my main thread..
It's still a little early for MLB 2011 .. but I was thinking about
something earlier today when reading an article on the Phillies.
With potentially the best Starting Rotation in MLB History throwing for
the Phils this season with Halladay, Lee, Oswalt, Hamels & Blanton..
what does everyone think about the possibility of running a System on
these guys??
Phillies RunLine ??
Phillies 1st 5 ??
Game Total Under ??
Game Total 1st 5 Under ??
Opponents Team Total Under ??
Is the offense too strong to play Game Unders?? Is the bulk of the Pitching Staff getting too old to throw no-hitters all year??
I think I can definitely come up with a profitable System for this "Special" team this year. If anyone would like to toss around some ideas and see if there's anything we could come up with, I'm open for a discussion.
Cheers
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Figured I'd start a new thread for this as to not take away from the focus of my main thread..
It's still a little early for MLB 2011 .. but I was thinking about
something earlier today when reading an article on the Phillies.
With potentially the best Starting Rotation in MLB History throwing for
the Phils this season with Halladay, Lee, Oswalt, Hamels & Blanton..
what does everyone think about the possibility of running a System on
these guys??
Phillies RunLine ??
Phillies 1st 5 ??
Game Total Under ??
Game Total 1st 5 Under ??
Opponents Team Total Under ??
Is the offense too strong to play Game Unders?? Is the bulk of the Pitching Staff getting too old to throw no-hitters all year??
I think I can definitely come up with a profitable System for this "Special" team this year. If anyone would like to toss around some ideas and see if there's anything we could come up with, I'm open for a discussion.
this is a great idea kreature and i think with your ability to come up with these things it would be an awesome thing to do , One thing about the phillies is that their offense has not been like it once was and they are going to have to play smallball and not just depend on hr to win games .ill be checking in with ya as im an avid phillies fan gl
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this is a great idea kreature and i think with your ability to come up with these things it would be an awesome thing to do , One thing about the phillies is that their offense has not been like it once was and they are going to have to play smallball and not just depend on hr to win games .ill be checking in with ya as im an avid phillies fan gl
I'll definitely be checking in on this system. A lot of research is going to have to go into it as baseball is very different from game to game. I don't think this offense is too strong at all. It's taken a hit with Werth leaving and again, Ibanez getting another year older.
Best of luck, I'll ride this one with you come opening day.
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I'll definitely be checking in on this system. A lot of research is going to have to go into it as baseball is very different from game to game. I don't think this offense is too strong at all. It's taken a hit with Werth leaving and again, Ibanez getting another year older.
Best of luck, I'll ride this one with you come opening day.
Funny you post this. I was looking into doing a daily philles play for a flat amount. Say 5 bucks. Take them on the RL when they are favored, ML when they are the dog. Bet all 162 games.
Last year they had the best record in baseball and finished + money( small though) if you bet the ML on every game. I will look that number up.
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Funny you post this. I was looking into doing a daily philles play for a flat amount. Say 5 bucks. Take them on the RL when they are favored, ML when they are the dog. Bet all 162 games.
Last year they had the best record in baseball and finished + money( small though) if you bet the ML on every game. I will look that number up.
I assume that is based on wagering to win $100 per game, so you profited 971 by the end of the year.
I wonder how that changes if you took the RL. I checked last week, and i think they won 50 1-run games, so that means you lose 50 more bets than you would have with the ML. However, you would lose less on the games that they lose outright when you are laying 200 or more on the ML.
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They were +971.
I assume that is based on wagering to win $100 per game, so you profited 971 by the end of the year.
I wonder how that changes if you took the RL. I checked last week, and i think they won 50 1-run games, so that means you lose 50 more bets than you would have with the ML. However, you would lose less on the games that they lose outright when you are laying 200 or more on the ML.
Guys, fading Phillies will be $$$$ this year! They will be favored HUGE in every game. Ok, they got good pitchers but bullpen and hitting is a question mark. We all know pitchers are overrated in baseball so you can make nice profit by fading them. Remember, pitcher is not more then %30-33 of the game.
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Guys, fading Phillies will be $$$$ this year! They will be favored HUGE in every game. Ok, they got good pitchers but bullpen and hitting is a question mark. We all know pitchers are overrated in baseball so you can make nice profit by fading them. Remember, pitcher is not more then %30-33 of the game.
phillies went 80-82 for -128 on the RL last season...so if you tailed them on the RL you lost money(playoffs was a different story)..but i was thinking..instead of picking a team that you think is gonna make money like the phillies and tailing them...why not pick a shitty team that you know blows ass and fade them lol..its harder to figure out whos gonna make money then whos gonna loose money =P
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phillies went 80-82 for -128 on the RL last season...so if you tailed them on the RL you lost money(playoffs was a different story)..but i was thinking..instead of picking a team that you think is gonna make money like the phillies and tailing them...why not pick a shitty team that you know blows ass and fade them lol..its harder to figure out whos gonna make money then whos gonna loose money =P
and correct me if iam wrong..but if you did fade a shitty team on the RL.... since your on the - side of the spread in most games.... that would put you on the + side of the vig in most cases...
example according to covers money stats the pirates went 80-82 on the RL for -2717 ...thats nearly a .500 record..tho being their RL is eating a lot of vig they lost a shit ton of money...why not fade a team like this and put that -2717 in your favor with the books giving YOU the odds!
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and correct me if iam wrong..but if you did fade a shitty team on the RL.... since your on the - side of the spread in most games.... that would put you on the + side of the vig in most cases...
example according to covers money stats the pirates went 80-82 on the RL for -2717 ...thats nearly a .500 record..tho being their RL is eating a lot of vig they lost a shit ton of money...why not fade a team like this and put that -2717 in your favor with the books giving YOU the odds!
Just an update here guys.. I won't be playing any of the above scenarios with Philadelphia this season. I'll be capping on a game-by-game basis and looking for my Value spots.
Right off the bat, first game of the season for them today and the line is crazy high, totally inflated. You should NOT be playing Philly today on the ML or even the RL. Absolutely zero Value and if you make bets like this all year you'll be broke before you know it. The Value play in this game was actually Houston +1.5, +115.. anytime you can get plus money AND a run (+1.5) it's almost always an automatic Value play. Throw in the fact the Total for this game was only 7, and it makes it even better. Philly might win 4-2, but the Value was on Houston.
Better teams to play with this Season will be the Atlanta Braves & Chicago White Sox. The Braves will get much less respect this season being in Philly's division and everyone thinks they'll just run away with it.. well don't be surprised if the Braves are right there at the end.
Good Luck this year guys, and remember.. CHASING KILLS. If you must Chase, do a much shorter concentrated chase on something very specific, collect your profit, and move on. Don't keep chasing the same thing all season long.
Cheers
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Just an update here guys.. I won't be playing any of the above scenarios with Philadelphia this season. I'll be capping on a game-by-game basis and looking for my Value spots.
Right off the bat, first game of the season for them today and the line is crazy high, totally inflated. You should NOT be playing Philly today on the ML or even the RL. Absolutely zero Value and if you make bets like this all year you'll be broke before you know it. The Value play in this game was actually Houston +1.5, +115.. anytime you can get plus money AND a run (+1.5) it's almost always an automatic Value play. Throw in the fact the Total for this game was only 7, and it makes it even better. Philly might win 4-2, but the Value was on Houston.
Better teams to play with this Season will be the Atlanta Braves & Chicago White Sox. The Braves will get much less respect this season being in Philly's division and everyone thinks they'll just run away with it.. well don't be surprised if the Braves are right there at the end.
Good Luck this year guys, and remember.. CHASING KILLS. If you must Chase, do a much shorter concentrated chase on something very specific, collect your profit, and move on. Don't keep chasing the same thing all season long.
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