Most of the time, Vegas are lazy when they set the odds, specially in low profile games. Sometimes they are lazy enough to simply set the difference between the average scores made by the road team on the road and home team at home as a line at NBA. It doesn’t matter for them, because every bet has a 50% chance winning or losing and mathematically they make profit because of the lines set.
What we are trying to do is to look into little deeper. To keep it simple, we take a look at their results and compare the results against their opponents because numbers can lie.
For example, in NBA, if a team have avg 100 points on the road and their opponent have avg 105 points at home the difference is 5 points. The line most often get set at 5 points or close to 5 points. But these average number are no use, if the road team have faced much harder opponents than the home team. Actually it should favor them.
Reasoning and picks will be posted at my *edited*.
Results will be posted here together with links to right section in forum for picks will be posted here
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
What is the Power rating system ?
Most of the time, Vegas are lazy when they set the odds, specially in low profile games. Sometimes they are lazy enough to simply set the difference between the average scores made by the road team on the road and home team at home as a line at NBA. It doesn’t matter for them, because every bet has a 50% chance winning or losing and mathematically they make profit because of the lines set.
What we are trying to do is to look into little deeper. To keep it simple, we take a look at their results and compare the results against their opponents because numbers can lie.
For example, in NBA, if a team have avg 100 points on the road and their opponent have avg 105 points at home the difference is 5 points. The line most often get set at 5 points or close to 5 points. But these average number are no use, if the road team have faced much harder opponents than the home team. Actually it should favor them.
Reasoning and picks will be posted at my *edited*.
Results will be posted here together with links to right section in forum for picks will be posted here
Sometimes they are lazy enough to simply set the difference between the average scores made by the road team on the road and home team at home as a line at NBA.
It doesn’t matter for them, because every bet has a 50% chance winning or losing and mathematically they make profit because of the lines set.
...
For example, in NBA, if a team have avg 100 points on the road and their opponent have avg 105 points at home the difference is 5 points. The line most often get set at 5 points or close to 5 points. But these average number are no use, if the road team have faced much harder opponents than the home team. Actually it should favor them.
...
1. "They" are never lazy. "They" have computers too.
2. Not all bets are 50% chance, if this is true why would you bet any games??? You bet because you think its not 50% chance.
3. Do you really believe that "Vegas" doesn't account for this?? Its called SOS.
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Quote Originally Posted by Societic-Hustle:
Sometimes they are lazy enough to simply set the difference between the average scores made by the road team on the road and home team at home as a line at NBA.
It doesn’t matter for them, because every bet has a 50% chance winning or losing and mathematically they make profit because of the lines set.
...
For example, in NBA, if a team have avg 100 points on the road and their opponent have avg 105 points at home the difference is 5 points. The line most often get set at 5 points or close to 5 points. But these average number are no use, if the road team have faced much harder opponents than the home team. Actually it should favor them.
...
1. "They" are never lazy. "They" have computers too.
2. Not all bets are 50% chance, if this is true why would you bet any games??? You bet because you think its not 50% chance.
3. Do you really believe that "Vegas" doesn't account for this?? Its called SOS.