Provide Your POD, & Let'sTry Something...

Question

Hey guys if you familiar with me on here, I'm big for trying things out, working on projects trying to asses results etc. I have another thread that I have been running for the NCAAF season since week 8, which is a project.

Anyways I realize that chase systems are extremely popular in this forum, so I want to start a chase project here. I created my own modified Kelly-Chase system for the money management this. So I have the money management part down, but I want this to be collaborative, so I want all your guys single best play of the day on any game with -110 odds (can be any sport: NCCAB, NFL, NBA, NCAAF)

Before we start this though, I need a serious answer to this question, because a major part of the money management system depends on this: "If as many people as possible get together and post daily in here, and we all post our single best play of the day, what % do you think we can win in the long run? Remember it's just 1 single play each day."

My guess is that I think we can hit 55-56%. I need your answer to this before I start anything here. Once I get a good consensus on what I think % we can hit as a group, I'll start this sucker up.

Leave your answer so we can get started, and let me know if your up for this...

FreakyFresh · Answer

Hey guys if you familiar with me on here, I'm big for trying things out, working on projects trying to asses results etc. I have another thread that I have been running for the NCAAF season since week 8, which is a project.

Anyways I realize that chase systems are extremely popular in this forum, so I want to start a chase project here. I created my own modified Kelly-Chase system for the money management this. So I have the money management part down, but I want this to be collaborative, so I want all your guys single best play of the day on any game with -110 odds (can be any sport: NCCAB, NFL, NBA, NCAAF)

Before we start this though, I need a serious answer to this question, because a major part of the money management system depends on this: "If as many people as possible get together and post daily in here, and we all post our single best play of the day, what % do you think we can win in the long run? Remember it's just 1 single play each day."

My guess is that I think we can hit 55-56%. I need your answer to this before I start anything here. Once I get a good consensus on what I think % we can hit as a group, I'll start this sucker up.

Leave your answer so we can get started, and let me know if your up for this...

pdg893 · Answer

I think New England will take out their loss to Indy on the Jets. POD for me and also like Giants on the ML big but that is -320

jhudd70 · Answer

Vikings...bad spot for Seattle, in my opinion

bluf_bluf_pass · Answer

FREAKY, i like this idea very much so. i believe that as a whole, 50% can be maintained. of course you will get hot and cold streaks along with solid and weak cappers. i look forward to this thread and the results it creates. thank you for the idea and creation my friend, best of luck to you in every way.

0-0 my first POD for november 21st will be.. OREGON/ARIZONA UNDER 59

BOL to everyone tonight, smash the books boys.

jv040 · Answer

my play nis memphis on the money line.

matt4000 · Answer

I think 50-55% can be reached or better depending on what is decided on and on who decides what the best play of the day is?&#xD;&#xA;Let&#x27;s do it. I will post when I am available.

kreatture · Answer

Based on some of the Handicapper&#x27;s I have seen come through here in the past month, the percentage will be bogged down to around the 35% mark..Based on the "solid core" of good handicappers I have seen on here, both past and present, you should expect this number to sit over 60% if it is based on just one single POD, if people take it seriously and don&#x27;t just throw out silly random picks.Like what you have been doing on here lately Freaky, an this looks like another good idea. Keep on truckin&#x27;.Cheers

kreatture · Answer

Personal POD Sunday, November 22nd, 2009Montreal Alouettes  -10.5   -110CFL East Division Championship Game

bluf_bluf_pass · Answer

wow that oregon/arizona game under blew up at the very end when arizona couldnt keep out oregon with about a minute in the 4th quarter. 0-1.

usually i bet single team totals. for example today i have the colts over 23 points and the buccaneers over 20 points. i dunno if you can count single team totals as picks. (let me know FREAKY) but today ill go with PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -3

FreakyFresh · Answer

Bluf, yeah I guess team totals are cool as long as the odds are usually -110, which I think they are, don't look at them that often.

Guys, I realize that there isn't that much activity in this thread and we won't get nearly enough picks per day to get an overwhelming single play of the day, so I think this is what I'm going to do...

I'm going to try and go in the other threads.. the actual NFL, NCAAF, NBA, or NCAAB threads and post a daily POD thread, and then come back here and post the play and keep track of it here. I appreciate those of you have taken an interest of this, and if you want to participate, check in the other threads, and post there so your vote counts there, I guess I'll try to start this up for tomorrow (Monday).

Thanks again guys, hopefully we can try and get something starting here soon. I guess I'm going to make the assumption that just takng the best wager each and every day we should hit 55% in the long run. It might actually be higher than that like Kreature said, but that's assuming you get the really solid cappers input on these games, and that isn't always the case here. I if we hit 60%, more power to us.

FreakyFresh · Answer

I have decided that there just won&#x27;t be enough input daily to choose a consensus single POD across the board and there really is no way as Kreature put it "to know if the picks are just thrown out randomly".So.. I&#x27;m going to start this thing up with my own capped POD, more than likely they will just be spreads. I intend on this going through February or March giving a good solid 120&#x2B; plays for this thing. I am going to apply my own money management system which is a chase system with a mix of the Kelly system. This system really was modified to meet my own personal assumptions and guidelines, etc. but if you are interested in applying it yourself, just send me a PM or something and I&#x27;ll try to help you out. My bet sizes are based on the assumption that over many games my picks will hit at 55%. I figure that&#x27;s a fairly safe and realistic assumption. I&#x27;m going to start with $1,000.00 bankroll. Your welcome to follow along, ask questions, anything really. Day #1 - November 23, 2009ARIZONA &#x2B;4.5 vs. Wisconsin NCAAB (-110)Bet $20.78 to win $18.89 (A)

angelobruno · Answer

freaky &#xD;&#xA;i like what you are trying to do here and i have been quite busy lately but im willing to help out if i can . i will definatly see what we can come up with everyones help .&#xD;&#xA;i like sac/under207    - 110  gl

Izzy_Mandelbaum · Answer

hey freaky, my book has Arizona&#x2B;6?&#xD;&#xA;any reasoning why you like it? im thinking about pulling the trigger on it.

MontanaMax · Answer

Good thing you got goingWould love to contribute myself but I usually don&#x27;t have POD&#x27;sDon&#x27;t want to pollute your thread with just mediocre playsBut if you still got things cooking I will look to whip up some POD&#x27;s myself and bring them to the bbq in the near future.................

FreakyFresh · Answer

Thanks Montana, your insight is always welcome though man.

Izzy, sorry this is probably too late anyways as you probably have already made your decision to play AZ or not, but I had them as a favorite tonight actually by 1 or 2 points. I actually should have waited on this game, but whatever. GL to you if you pulled the trigger.

Izzy_Mandelbaum · Answer

not too late freaky.&#xD;&#xA;i got them at &#x2B;6 and pulled it. &#xD;&#xA;thank you for your input and advice, its appreciated.&#xD;&#xA; best of luck my friend.

Izzy_Mandelbaum · Answer

wow that arizona/wisconsin game was BONKOS.

i HAVE NEVER EVER seen a game that "looked" so influenced by the referees. it seemed obvious to me that the refs needed the game to go OVER last night. there must have been about 20+ fouls in the 2nd half called and 75% could have easily been not called. every other possesion down the floor the refs would blow the whistle on a hand check or the offensive player would stumble around and get a ticky tack foul called on the defensive by touching his shirt.

i had arizona +6 so my money wasnt effected by the total of the game, but if i had the over under there would have been a smashed tv in my house because everything it seemed rigged.

FREAKY i think you pushed?? wow what a last 2 minutes to theat game. i hope you didnt lose the game bud from a stripped rebound with 5.4 secs left by trevin hughes

FreakyFresh · Answer

Yesterday&#x27;s POD (11/23/09)ARIZONA &#x2B;4.5 vs. Wisconsin  (4)   &#x2B;$18.89Record 1-03 Gm. Chase Record 1-0 (1-0,0-0,0-0)New Bankroll: $1,018.89Today&#x27;s POD (Tues. Nov 24)TEXAS -7.5 vs. Pittsburgh (A) - 10:15 pm ET$21.18 to win $19.25

FreakyFresh · Answer

Izzy, I watched the first half and turned it off and went to bed. The first half was ridiculous. It was one of the worst games I have watched. Outside of Arizona getting trounced to open the game which was bad enough for me... Wisconsin would come down and take a jump shot, Arizona would get the rebound and then fire up a worse shot or the ref would call any touch foul. It was just an extremely ugly first half, and i didn't even want to watch the second half. Sounds crazy from what you said though. And I actually had Arizona at 4.5 so they covered by a half point. Least you had 2 more points for comfort.

Izzy_Mandelbaum · Answer

i feel that freaky. i probably should have turned it off when arizona was down 13-0 and they couldnt hit water if the fell out of a boat in the atlantic. LUCKILY wisconsin is pretty retarded when it comes to offense and decided to let the majority of shots come from guys of the caucasian race. As a fellow white guy, i know thats not the best option to score buckets.

If you would have watched the 2nd half you would have thought it was the NBA with the refs having a couple thousand dollars on the over, it was one of the more ridiculous 2nd halfs i have ever seen and im no rookie to watching sports.

IM GLAD YOU HAD THAT HALF A POINT BUD. thanks for the winner and lets get em tonight

Izzy_Mandelbaum · Answer

ANyone think there is any value in CHAMINADE +24

i love betting on huge dogs especially when there opponent played yesterday and they are on a neutral unfamiliar court in hawaii

i could be wrong i just think its hard to cover 3 TDS and a field goal when youre not on your home floor and you played cincinnati yesterday.

Izzy_Mandelbaum · Answer

wow good thing i didnt pull the trigger on that chaminade, i just couldnt find the cojones to bet on a team that sounds like a carbonated beverage.

I like the texas pick freaky, i see you got it at -7.5. i dont think my line will be quite as sweet.

MY POD (0-0) will be MARYLAND TERRAPINS -3

they are returning 4 of 5 starters from last year and have the big experience edge. i think the line would be alot more if vanderbilt didnt look so bad vs. cincinnati yesterday.

BestOfLuck EVERYONE

kreatture · Answer

Nice job with Arizona last night. I kinda like Pittsburgh tonight at +8 vs. Texas. But I never handicapped the game, or bet it, so Good Luck I'll root for Texas with you.

I hit Nashville last night as my POD.

Tonight I think you have to love the Washington Wizards -2.5. With their owner dying today, and a weak Philadelphia team coming into town, the Wiz desperately need this win.
If they are trailing at the Half, jump on them for the 2nd Half, as well.

I also have a big Parley on Raptors ML / Wizards ML.

Good Luck

Cheers

Izzy_Mandelbaum · Answer

FADE ME FADE ME FADE ME

FreakyFresh · Answer

Yesterday&#x27;s POD (11/23/09)TEXAS -7.5 vs. Pittsburgh  (-16)   &#x2B;$19.25Record 2-03 Gm. Chase Record 2-0 (2-0,0-0,0-0)New Bankroll: $1,038.14Wasn&#x27;t a good start to this game either like last night, but as I thought Texas just wore down this Pitt team, and Texas really took away Pitts only chance at a cover, Ashton Gibbs.I really like this for some reason. It gives me one game a day to root for, to look forward to at night. I don&#x27;t have to worry about volume or anything, and it gives me the opportunity to find my perceived best value. It is kind of challenging laying off multiple games knowing that you like a few a lot and you can only pick one, but I take it as a challenge.I don&#x27;t know if I am going to be able to get a play up for tomorrow at all, but I&#x27;ll definitely try. Thanks for those who have posted and are following.

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