RealityChecks SKATE UP NHL 11/12

Ok boys with the NHL dropping the puck on this upcoming Thursday, I'm going to be playing 5 strategies for the season.  Some are my own fresh and untested but look good so I'm trying them.  Some I will be playing at 2 books so I will keep the lines low to start.  Lets keep the thread clean and make some $$$

1)  Game Total Odd Parlay - Simply parlay all game totals odd everyday.  I'm using $5 as my unit size.  I will keep a running balance.  I am hoping to win enough of the 3,4,5's to stay even and be able to hit a 10,11,12 to make the big bucks!

2)  Score in the 1st 10 Minutes 1st Period - This is a take on Smitlers score in the 1st inning MLB strategy.  Simply take the highest + money bet in each time slot and run a labby line. I'm using  5-5 to start with to see how it goes.  Clear the line start a new one.

3) Grand Salami Follow - Simply follow the previous days grand salami result.  Our first bet will be on Friday, if Thursday was a under then on Friday we will bet under.  They have good streaks during the season, you will also have to watch your book as I have noticed books can be off by as much as 2 goals.  So while one might win with a under the other could win with an over.  The beauty is how we will run the labby lines on this.  You will run labby lines for both over and under.

Over 7.5 7.5                       Under 7.5 7.5

        7.5 7.5                                7.5 7.5

So on a win you stay on line 1, on a loss go to line 2, then win or lose go back to line 1.  This is incase of a streak of over/under/over/under etc.

4) RPI >45 Strategy - Simply bet on a team that has a 45 rpi higher then the opponent.  I will run labby lines for each conference.  So for the Eastern conf if there is only 1 play I will use the first line.  If there are 2 plays then start another line.  Do the same for the Western conf.  Using 7.5 7.5

5) 2 Game Road Trip - Simply bet on a team to win on at least a 2 game road trip.  If they win the first game betting is over.  If they are on a 3 or more game road trip you only bet on the first 2 games.  So you will have a line for game 1 and a line for game 2. I will have these lines for each division, ATL, NE, SE, CEN, NW, PAC.   Team we will omit for this are NJ, NYI, OTT, FLA, STL, COL, EDM, WIN.

Game 1  7.5 7.5

Game 2  7.5 7.5

I will post the OCT plays for the 2 game chase....

2 Game Road Chase OCT Plays

Atlantic

PHI 6,8

PIT 6,8   17,18     29,Nov3 

NYR 7,8

Northeast

BOS 12,15 

MON 6,9 

BUF 15,18 

TOR 20,22   30,Nov 2

Southeast

WAS 27,29 

TB 7,8    25,27 

CAR 8,10   14,18

Central

DET 22,25 

NAS 7,8   17,20    31,Nov3 

CHI 18,20  

CLB 21,22  27,29

Northwest

VAN 10,12 

CAL 10,13 

MIN 10,11   20,22

Pacific

SJ 21,22 

ANA 25,27 

PHO 8,10

LA 13,15   27,29 

DAL 18,21

nice! how did each system do last year?

5) For the 2 game road trip I am adding in a filter.  If the road team faces one of the following teams that road trip will be considered a no play.  These teams are simply too good at home.  NAS, VAN, SJ, WAS, DAL, TB, MON, PHI.  It has cut some of our plays for October.  The new plays for October are as follows...

2 Game Road Chase OCT Plays

Atlantic

PHI 6,8

PIT 17,18    

NYR 7,8

Northeast

BOS 12,15 

MON 6,9 

TOR 30,Nov 2

Southeast

TB 7,8   

CAR 14,18

Central

NAS 7,8   31,Nov3 

CHI 18,20  

CLB 21,22  27,29

Northwest

MIN 10,11  

Pacific

SJ 21,22 

ANA 25,27 

DAL 18,21

On with the show....  Bets are

1) A 3 game parlay on game total odd.  $5  (last year the lines were -220 now they are -265, hopefully it's just because of the opening day matchups and they will come down in the future)

2) Time of first score.  No plus money lines here but will use the lowest - lines.  So at 7 we have

PHI/BOS after 9 mins 30 seconds -105

and at 10 we have PIT/VAN after 9:30 -105  use a lab line...

3) No grnad salami play today as we wait for todays results and follow it tomorrw.  The line for today is 16.5

4) No RPI plays for today.

5) 2 game road trip

Atlantic  PHI  Game #1

Northeast  MON Game #1

Things I am also looking into are MON is .25 higher RPI then TOR and they are the dog, so a play on the puckline +1.5 would be good but odds are -310 kinda high... So just watching.  We also have VAN at .25 RPI higher then PIT, they are the fav but the puckline at -1.5 +190 looks good being at home and with Crosby not playing.  Will put a little on this and do a labby line for now to see the results.  (About the RPI, I am using last years for now till a few weeks into the season.  Yes teams have changed a bit but the nucleus is still there.  Although I would take a few points off PIT with Crosby being out)

Results

1) Loss  Balance -$5

2) 1-1

3 & 4) No action

5) Game #1   1-1

Todays plays

1) 6 game odd total parlay

2) Time of 1st score, games at 1pm ANA/BUF after 9:30 +100

7pm OTT/DET after 9:30 +110    8:30pm CHI/DAL after 9:30 +100

3) Grand Salami.  Yesterday's line was 16.5 and the actual total was 12.  Todays line is 33.5 so we start today and bet the UNDER (follow yesterdays winner which was under)

4) RPI play ..  Western Conference DET 60 rpi higher then OTT  So I will have a road labby line, a home labby line and to get more action I will have a combo labby line that plays on both home and road.  So I have a bet on DET on the home line today and a bet on DET on the combo line today.

5) 2 game road trip

Atlantic  NYR  GM#1

Southeast TB  GM#1

Central NAS  GM#1

So the ones I was watching last night both lost, I will still watch these plays and try to find something.  the 25 RPI is likely too low.  I will gather stats and see what plays out...

MON R +1.5 -310 RPI 25 Loss

VAN H -1.5 +190 RPI 25 Loss

TB R +1.5 -330 RPI 26 pending

DET H -1.5 +130 RPI 60 pending

Results

1) Loss Balance -$10

2) ANA/BUF after 9:30 +100

OTT/DET after 9:30 +110

CHI/DAL after 9:30 +100

3) Grand Salami UNDER

4) DET Road

DET Combo

5)

Atlantic  NYR  GM#1

Southeast TB  GM#1

Central NAS  GM#1

Watching...

MON R +1.5 -310 RPI 25 Loss

VAN H -1.5 +190 RPI 25 Loss

TB R +1.5 -330 RPI 26 WIN

DET H -1.5 +130 RPI 60 WIN

Nice day yesterday, lets keep it going today...

1) 13 game parlay $5

2) Time of first score, games today at 1,2,7,8,8:30,9,10,10:30  All bets will be after 9:30 mins of play

3) Grand Salami UNDER 73.5

4) RPI While no matchups have a 45 RPI or more, I am going to be playing

PHI R RPI 41 (EAST Conf. on the road line and combo line)

WAS H RPI 30  since CAR played last night

DET R RPI 37 (WEST Conf. on the road line and combo line)

5) 2 Game Road Trip

NYR Game #2 (this really shouldn't be a play since they are playing in Sweden, but playing it anyway.  It should of said in the matchup it was overseas, but it didn't)

Results

1) Loss Balance -$15

2) 1 NYR

    2 BUF

    7 CAR

    8 FLA

8:30 DAL

    9 DET

   10 PIT

10:30 PHX

3) Grand Salami

4) PHI road line

WAS home line

PHI combo line

DET road line

DET combo line

5) NYR Game #2

As it says in  post #11 I'm using last years for now.

Yesteray PHI RPI .586  NJ RPI .545  Difference is 41 play was on PHI

As it turns out the 45 difference should be lowered proably to 35 or so as they are turning out to be winning plays. 

Todays plays

1) 2 game, game total odd parlay $5

2) Time of 1st score

 5pm MON after 9:30 -105

 9pm PIT after 9:30 -105

3) Grand Salami OVER 11

4) RPI PIT 52 (road line and combo line, and also setting up a puckline labby line and betting on it.  SInce RPI's of 37,41 and 60 all coverd the puckline, 52 should as well)

5) 2 game road chase

MON Game #2

Montreal...    lookin good.

I dont know if I can play these kind of bets with my local....   only the pucklines...  and parlays.

So I will only be able to follow #4 and #5 plays.