hey, i'm not going to make a new thread, but i thought of an offshoot of this system and backtested it:
if a team is away for both the week before and after the bye, bet the opposite ATS of what they did the week before the bye.
i back tested every situation to 2009 (home-home, away-home, home-away), and this was the most glaring advantage. in 2011 it was 50%, and 2010 it was 33%, but otherwise, profitable.
away & away (record is win-loss for different result-same result, and lines come from killersports.com)
2013 6-1
2012 4-0
2011 5-5
2010 1-2
2009 2-1
18-9 (66%)
just for the record, even though the only other one that has been profitable overall since 2009 is away-home, it hasn't been profitable at all the last 2 years. home-away has been profitable the last 2 years, but not before.
home & home
(W-L record is same-different)
2013 3-4
2012 4-3
2011 5-0
2010 0-5
2009 5-3
17-15 53.13%
away-home (same-different)
2013 1-6
2012 3-3
2011 6-1
2010 7-4
2009 7-5
24-19 55.81%
home-away (different-same)
2013 7-3
2012 9-5 (2012 & 13: 16-8 66.66%)
2011 2-6
2010 6-5
20093-5
27-24 52.94%
i'm going to play away-away. there are 3 such teams that apply this year:
CHI - Bye Wk 9
KC - Bye Wk 6
DAL- Bye Wk 11
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hey, i'm not going to make a new thread, but i thought of an offshoot of this system and backtested it:
if a team is away for both the week before and after the bye, bet the opposite ATS of what they did the week before the bye.
i back tested every situation to 2009 (home-home, away-home, home-away), and this was the most glaring advantage. in 2011 it was 50%, and 2010 it was 33%, but otherwise, profitable.
away & away (record is win-loss for different result-same result, and lines come from killersports.com)
2013 6-1
2012 4-0
2011 5-5
2010 1-2
2009 2-1
18-9 (66%)
just for the record, even though the only other one that has been profitable overall since 2009 is away-home, it hasn't been profitable at all the last 2 years. home-away has been profitable the last 2 years, but not before.
home & home
(W-L record is same-different)
2013 3-4
2012 4-3
2011 5-0
2010 0-5
2009 5-3
17-15 53.13%
away-home (same-different)
2013 1-6
2012 3-3
2011 6-1
2010 7-4
2009 7-5
24-19 55.81%
home-away (different-same)
2013 7-3
2012 9-5 (2012 & 13: 16-8 66.66%)
2011 2-6
2010 6-5
20093-5
27-24 52.94%
i'm going to play away-away. there are 3 such teams that apply this year:
Labby line would have profited 10 units after week 6 last year for anyone interested. That's playing a line like this 1-1-1-1 But that was last year. This year may be different.
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Labby line would have profited 10 units after week 6 last year for anyone interested. That's playing a line like this 1-1-1-1 But that was last year. This year may be different.
I have played this the last 3 years ,,, I would wait until you are up 8 units then call it quits .. 3-3 so far ... hang tight it does work for 7-8 units per year ..
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I have played this the last 3 years ,,, I would wait until you are up 8 units then call it quits .. 3-3 so far ... hang tight it does work for 7-8 units per year ..
Baltimore is not a play under the criteria I use, as this is their third road game in a row. At Cleveland -1.5 (W), at Indy +3 (L) and now this one. Not to say you can't try it but I have avoided this scenario since tracking/playing it.
GL
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Baltimore is not a play under the criteria I use, as this is their third road game in a row. At Cleveland -1.5 (W), at Indy +3 (L) and now this one. Not to say you can't try it but I have avoided this scenario since tracking/playing it.
Has anyone looked into looking at teams and the beginning of their 2 game road trip to see if there is any trend there. We see that we had at least 2 or 3 plays every week maybe we can find a trend before the 1st game. Any thoughts guys? Anyone with the bet labs software want to run some scenarios?
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Has anyone looked into looking at teams and the beginning of their 2 game road trip to see if there is any trend there. We see that we had at least 2 or 3 plays every week maybe we can find a trend before the 1st game. Any thoughts guys? Anyone with the bet labs software want to run some scenarios?
Despite being the "home" team in London, it is the 2nd game on the road for Atlanta, and they didn't cover last week at Baltimore. I don't recall a similar situation before.
GL
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Despite being the "home" team in London, it is the 2nd game on the road for Atlanta, and they didn't cover last week at Baltimore. I don't recall a similar situation before.
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