Situational Handicapping

The underlying theory behind situation handicapping is that on any given day or night, the situation can dictate how a team could perform. Therefore the circumstances surrounding the upcoming game are considered. Some examples:

(i)                  Revenge – motivation for a team is perhaps the single most important factor to consider when deciding to back a team. The last thing you want to do is back a lame horse. If you read the leadup quotes and comments to a game where one team was beaten up badly by another earlier in the season, you will invariably see some kind of reference back to that game which is a sure sign they will be motivated.

(ii)                Letdown – again motivation is the common theme here. A classic example is when a team comes off a very successful road trip and play their first home game upon their return. This is an even more appealing if the team they play is a sub 0.500 team

(iii)               Lookahead – situation where one team has an upcoming marquee game against a top opponent in the game causing them to look past their current opponent.

(iv)              Sandwich – invariably the NBA schedulers will throw up a meaningless game for a top team which will be in the middle of couple of keys games. We had an example the other night where the Lakers had to play the Thunder at Staples, after coming off an East coast swing. Then the next night they had to hit the road and travel to Salt Lake City.

(v)                4/5 – All teams will at some point be faced with a situation where they have to play 4 games in 5 nights. As an example I always like fading a team who have to play their 4^th game against an uptempo, offensive minded team. I have a calendar in my room where I have marked down every single situation where a team has to play their 4^th game in 5 nights, fairly simply thing to do by having a look at the NBA schedule but a potential valuable one.

Invariably you will find that it isn’t one single situation you use to make a play, it could be a combination. Also even more broadly speaking you will find that to make a strong play you will have to use a combination of all 3 capping methods.

Good luck for the second half of the season

Rod