Main goal : Go 51.5 % or better on bets no worse than -115 (Preferrably nothing over -110 but NOTHING over -115, almost all bets will be in the -105 to -115 range)
Quick summary : A few months ago during my normal lot of tracking and running of numbers I stumbled across a webpage about casino betting systems and was checking it out. I'm not a big betting system guy and I had heard of these systems before but the one that really caught my eye if used for sports betting (instead of casino games) was the D'Alambert system (google it if unfamiliar). Instead of a normal HIGHLY aggressive 1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1 D'Alambert I will be using a VERY conservative 1.0-1.1-1.2-1.3-1.4-1.5-1.4-1.3-1.2-1.1-1.0.
The break-even point on -110 bets is 52.4%. Anything above that obviously turns a profit. People think it is very, very simple to hit that mark but its not, 99% of bettors fall into the dreaded 48-52% dead zone where no one makes money, not the followers or faders). I feel I can hit 52-53% each season but that doesn't do me much good long term, I may squeak out some profits but not much and some years not at all. The thing I like about the D'Alambert is that it lowers your needed success rate to about 51.5%, which I feel I could hit every season.
So I am going to track my first 100 plays here using the D'Alambert and if all goes well I am going to take a serious shot at stepping up my bet sizes and betting this way full-time. For now all these plays are for tracking purposes only, no real money wagers. I will get into more detail as time goes on if it's working and if anyone cares.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Main goal : Go 51.5 % or better on bets no worse than -115 (Preferrably nothing over -110 but NOTHING over -115, almost all bets will be in the -105 to -115 range)
Quick summary : A few months ago during my normal lot of tracking and running of numbers I stumbled across a webpage about casino betting systems and was checking it out. I'm not a big betting system guy and I had heard of these systems before but the one that really caught my eye if used for sports betting (instead of casino games) was the D'Alambert system (google it if unfamiliar). Instead of a normal HIGHLY aggressive 1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1 D'Alambert I will be using a VERY conservative 1.0-1.1-1.2-1.3-1.4-1.5-1.4-1.3-1.2-1.1-1.0.
The break-even point on -110 bets is 52.4%. Anything above that obviously turns a profit. People think it is very, very simple to hit that mark but its not, 99% of bettors fall into the dreaded 48-52% dead zone where no one makes money, not the followers or faders). I feel I can hit 52-53% each season but that doesn't do me much good long term, I may squeak out some profits but not much and some years not at all. The thing I like about the D'Alambert is that it lowers your needed success rate to about 51.5%, which I feel I could hit every season.
So I am going to track my first 100 plays here using the D'Alambert and if all goes well I am going to take a serious shot at stepping up my bet sizes and betting this way full-time. For now all these plays are for tracking purposes only, no real money wagers. I will get into more detail as time goes on if it's working and if anyone cares.
If you can hit close to 50%, using a labby line might be a better way to go. Of course you might run into some longer stretches of losses but if you keep the bet size managable, you could end up very well. The key is having the bankroll to sustain any losing streak.
Best of luck on your test.
Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
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If you can hit close to 50%, using a labby line might be a better way to go. Of course you might run into some longer stretches of losses but if you keep the bet size managable, you could end up very well. The key is having the bankroll to sustain any losing streak.
If you can hit close to 50%, using a labby line might be a better way to go. Of course you might run into some longer stretches of losses but if you keep the bet size managable, you could end up very well. The key is having the bankroll to sustain any losing streak.
Best of luck on your test.
Thanks a lot
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Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:
If you can hit close to 50%, using a labby line might be a better way to go. Of course you might run into some longer stretches of losses but if you keep the bet size managable, you could end up very well. The key is having the bankroll to sustain any losing streak.
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