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SUPER TOTALS SYSTEM - JUNE 2010

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***NEW SYSTEM, NOT TESTED, BEGININNING JUNE 2010***

The System is a 3-4 Game Chase System. You will be chasing the Total in each series.

The Over/Under depends on which Stadium the series will be played in.

U* = Switch to Over if playing Red Sox, Blue Jays, Yankees, Angels, Reds, Braves, Dodgers, Brewers

O* = Switch to Under if playing A's, Mariners, Tigers, Orioles, Astros, Pirates, Padres, Cubs

UNDER STADIUMS:
Baltimore
Tampa Bay
Toronto
Chicago (AL)
Oakland
Seattle
Houston
Pittsburgh
Colorado
San Diego
San Franchisco

UNDER* STADIUMS:
Detroit
Minnesota
Atlanta
New York (NL)
Philadelphia
Chicago (NL)
St. Louis

OVER STADIUMS:
Boston
New York (AL)
Cleveland
Kansas City
Florida
Arizona
Los Angelas (NL)

OVER* STADIUMS:
Los Angelas (AL)
Texas
Cincinatti
Milwaukee


TOTAL W/L =
SERIES W/L =

PLAYS FOR JUNE 1st

(GM 1) OAK/BOS OVER
(GM 1) BAL/NYY OVER
(GM 1) TEX/CWS UNDER
(GM 1) CLE/DET UNDER

Odds to come......

Please post your ideas on the system and how it can be tweeked. I will try it for June , and keep it going if it continues to turn a profit


 
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Posted: #2
BANKROLL = $1000
AMMOUNT TO WIN: GM 1 = 2.5%, GM 2 = 5%, GM 3 = 10%
TOTAL W/L =
SERIES W/L =

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
JUNE 1st PLAYS:

(GM 1) OAK/BOS OVER 8.5 $33/25
(GM 1) BAL/NYY OVER 9.5 $30/25
(GM 1) TEX/CWS UNDER 9.5 $37/25
(GM 1) CLE/DET UNDER 8.5 $24.04/25
 
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Posted: #3
minnesota just got there new stadium I think it's probably too early to tell.
 
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BANKROLL = $1000
AMMOUNT TO WIN: GM 1 = 2.5%, GM 2 = 5%, GM 3 = 10%
TOTAL W/L = 2-2 $-17
SERIES W/L = 2-0 $+50

JUNE 1st RESULTS:

(GM 1) OAK/BOS OVER 8.5 $33/25
(GM 1) BAL/NYY OVER 9.5 $30/25
(GM 1) TEX/CWS UNDER 9.5 $37/25
(GM 1) CLE/DET UNDER 8.5 $24.04/25


JUNE 2nd PICKS:

(GM 2) BAL/NYY OVER 9.5 $51.50/55
(GM 2) TEX/CWS UNDER 9.5 $60/50
 
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Posted: #5
Like the idea! But maybe you can use another stat. Start the system from June 1 and look at ealier encounters between the 2 teams this season. Because Bal @ NYY was 2 unders and 1 over at yankee stadium this season and in total between the 2 teams 3 unders 2 overs and 1 push!
 
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Posted: #6
BEGINNING BANKROLL = $1000
 BANKROLL = $973
AMMOUNT TO WIN: GM 1 = 2.5%, GM 2 = 5%, GM 3 = 10%
TOTAL W/L = 3-3 $-27
SERIES W/L = 3-0 $+70

JUNE 2nd RESULTS:
(GM 2) BAL/NYY OVER 9.5 $51.50/50
(GM 2) TEX/CWS UNDER 9.5 $60/50

JUNE 3rd PICKS:

(GM 3) TEX/CWS UNDER 9.5 $130/100

NEW MODS FOR NEW SERIES COMING UP:
U* = Switch to Over if playing CIN, HOU, STL, NYM, TB, BOS, OAK, NYY

O* = Switch to Under if playing PHI, LAD, FLA, WSH, BAL, KC, LAA, SEA
 
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Posted: #7
BEGINNING BANKROLL = $1000
 BANKROLL = $973
AMMOUNT TO WIN: GM 1 = 2.5%, GM 2 = 5%, GM 3 = 10%
TOTAL W/L = 3-3 $-27
SERIES W/L = 3-0 $+70

JUNE 2nd RESULTS:
(GM 2) BAL/NYY OVER 9.5 $51.50/50
(GM 2) TEX/CWS UNDER 9.5 $60/50

JUNE 3rd PICKS:

(GM 3) TEX/CWS UNDER 9.5 $130/100

NEW MODS FOR NEW SERIES COMING UP:
U* = Switch to Over if playing CIN, HOU, STL, NYM, TB, BOS, OAK, NYY

O* = Switch to Under if playing PHI, LAD, FLA, WSH, BAL, KC, LAA, SEA
 
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Posted: #8
some one has been doing there homework,,,,,,,,,way to go my man,,,now you see what i say is true
 
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BEGINNING BANKROLL = $1000
CURRENT BANKROLL = $1073
AMMOUNT TO WIN: GM 1 = 2.5%, GM 2 = 5%, GM 3 = 10%
GM 1: 2-2 -$17
GM 2: 1-1 -$10
GM 3: 1-0 +$100
GM 4: 0-0
TOTAL W/L = 4-3 $+73
SERIES W/L = 4-0 $+73

UNDER STADIUMS:
Baltimore
Tampa Bay
Toronto
Chicago (AL)
Oakland
Seattle
Houston
Pittsburgh
Colorado
San Diego
San Franchisco

UNDER* STADIUMS:
Detroit
Minnesota
Atlanta
New York (NL)
Philadelphia
Chicago (NL)
St. Louis
Washington

OVER STADIUMS:
Boston
New York (AL)
Cleveland
Kansas City
Florida
Arizona
Los Angelas (NL)

OVER* STADIUMS:
Los Angelas (AL)
Texas
Cincinatti
Milwaukee

NEW MODS FOR NEW SERIES COMING UP:
U* = Switch to Over if playing CIN, HOU, STL, NYM, TB, BOS, OAK, NYY

O* = Switch to Under if playing PHI, LAD, FLA, WSH, BAL, KC, LAA, SEA

JUNE 3rd RESULTS:

(GM 3) TEX/CWS UNDER 9.5 $130/100

Screwed up and forgot to play the Dodgers GM 1 Under today!!! If I would have played it the system would be 5-0. But I did not play it or post it, so system is 4-0.

JUNE 4th PLAYS:

(GM 1) BOS/BAL UNDER 9.5 $30.50/25
(GM 1) NYY/TOR UNDER 9.5 $32.25/25
(GM 1) CLE/CWS UNDER 8.5 $24.51/25
(GM 1) DET/KC OVER 9.5 $24.75/25
(GM 1) MIN/OAK UNDER 7.5 $22.94/25
(GM 1) LAA/SEA UNDER 8.5 $26.25/25
(GM 1) TB/TEX OVER 9.5 $26.75/25
(GM 1) FLA/NYM UNDER 8.5 $26/25
(GM 1) SD/PHI UNDER 7.5 $30.75/25
(GM 1) CIN/WSH OVER 8.5 $28.75/25
(GM 1) CHC/HOU UNDER 8.5 $25.75/25
(GM 1) SF/PIT UNDER 8.5 $29.75/25
(GM 1) MLW/STL UNDER 8.5 $31.75/25
(GM 1) COL/ARZ OVER 9.5 $29.50/25

GOOD LUCK TO ALL
 
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Posted: #10
BEGINNING BANKROLL = $1000
CURRENT BANKROLL = $1161.55
AMMOUNT TO WIN: GM 1 = 2.5%, GM 2 = 5%, GM 3 = 10%
GM 1: 11-7 +61.55
GM 2: 1-1 -$10
GM 3: 1-0 +$100
GM 4: 0-0
TOTAL W/L = 13-8 $+161.55
SERIES W/L = 13-0 $+298.00

JUNE 4th RESULTS:

(GM 1) BOS/BAL UNDER 9.5 $30.50/25
(GM 1) NYY/TOR UNDER 9.5 $32.25/25
(GM 1) CLE/CWS UNDER 8.5 $24.51/25
(GM 1) DET/KC OVER 9.5 $24.75/25
(GM 1) MIN/OAK UNDER 7.5 $22.94/25
(GM 1) LAA/SEA UNDER 8.5 $26.25/25
(GM 1) TB/TEX OVER 9.5 $26.75/25
(GM 1) FLA/NYM UNDER 8.5 $26/25
(GM 1) SD/PHI UNDER 7.5 $30.75/25
(GM 1) CIN/WSH OVER 8.5 $28.75/25
(GM 1) CHC/HOU UNDER 8.5 $25.75/25
(GM 1) SF/PIT UNDER 8.5 $29.75/25
(GM 1) MLW/STL UNDER 8.5 $31.75/25
(GM 1) COL/ARZ OVER 9.5 $29.50/25

JUNE 5th PLAYS:
(GM 1) BOS/BAL UNDER 8.5 $60.50/50
(GM 1) CLE/CWS UNDER 9.5 S74.50/50
(GM 1) MIN/OAK UNDER 7.5 $54.50/50
(GM 1) CIN/WSH OVER 8.5 $57/50
(GM 1) SF/PIT UNDER 8.5 $61/50
 
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Posted: #11
 good luck ! It´s look good....
 
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Posted: #12

How did you figure the Over/Under stadiums?

 
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Posted: #13
[

JUNE 5th PLAYS:
(GM 1) BOS/BAL UNDER 8.5 $60.50/50
(GM 1) CLE/CWS UNDER 9.5 S74.50/50
(GM 1) MIN/OAK UNDER 7.5 $54.50/50
(GM 1) CIN/WSH OVER 8.5 $57/50
(GM 1) SF/PIT UNDER 8.5 $61/50
[/Quote]
these plays should be (GM2) right?
 
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Posted: #14
SD, there is merit in the stadium approach to O/U betting I believe. The other factor which is important that could (and probably should) be used for filters are umpires. I don't have the time now but I think that is a huge filter to use. They can account for 2 or more extra runners a game with their strike zone.
 
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Posted: #15
I'm also curious about the stadium determinations. I know sportsbath has his ocean theory which I happen to agree with, but the others. Was it just legwork looking up all the games over some period of time?
 
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Posted: #16
I have determined the Over/Under Stadiums by past results this season. If a team had a series where they went 3-0 on the Over, then I placed them in the Under. If they had both a 3-0 Under and a 3-0 Over.....I have used mods.

The Mods are Batters OPS the last Month, combined by Pitchers OPS last Month.


JUNE 5th PLAYS:
(GM 2) BOS/BAL UNDER 8.5 $60.50/50
(GM 2) CLE/CWS UNDER 9.5 S74.50/50
(GM 2) MIN/OAK UNDER 7.5 $54.50/50
(GM 2) CIN/WSH OVER 8.5 $57/50
(GM 2) SF/PIT UNDER 8.5 $61/50
 
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Posted: #17
i see you have tweaked my system....good to see the work you put in
 
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Posted: #18

Super_Dave  I understand your Mod switch, but you never change your  under/over stadium like so...like the ones I've copied and paste on the bottom.The only reason why I ask is because I'm working on a system myself and you helped me start it...I've backed tested it for just one year and it looks unbelievable so far...I would like to share it with you and everyone else...but dont want to post unless I really got it down...

UNDER STADIUMS:
Baltimore
Tampa Bay
Toronto
Chicago (AL)
Oakland
Seattle
Houston
Pittsburgh
Colorado
San Diego
San Franchisco

UNDER* STADIUMS:
Detroit
Minnesota
Atlanta
New York (NL)
Philadelphia
Chicago (NL)
St. Louis
Washington

OVER STADIUMS:
Boston
New York (AL)
Cleveland
Kansas City
Florida
Arizona
Los Angelas (NL)

OVER* STADIUMS:
Los Angelas (AL)
Texas
Cincinatti
Milwaukee
nder/over stadium and thats what I dont get...

 
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Posted: #19

UNDER* STADIUMS:
Detroit
Minnesota
Atlanta
New York (NL)
Philadelphia
Chicago (NL)
St. Louis
Washington

OVER* STADIUMS:
Los Angelas (AL)
Texas
Cincinatti
Milwaukee

U* = Switch to Over if playing CIN, HOU, STL, NYM, TB, BOS, OAK, NYY

O* = Switch to Under if playing PHI, LAD, FLA, WSH, BAL, KC, LAA, SEA

So for example.... Washington is having a weekend series versus Cincinatti this week. I have labeled Washington an U* because they more then likely will have an under during the series, but have a possibility of 3 overs.

So I have labeled Washington a U* stadium. So I will chase them on the under, except for when they play the mod teams. Which are CIN, HOU, STL, NYM.

So this weekend Washington is playing Cincinatti, so I made the decision to change it to an Over chase.

Hope this makes things more clearly.

Results...and Picks to come.......


 
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Posted: #20
BEGINNING BANKROLL = $1000
CURRENT BANKROLL = $1073.05
AMMOUNT TO WIN: GM 1 = 2.5%, GM 2 = 5%, GM 3 = 10%
GM 1: 11-7 +61.55
GM 2: 3-4 -$88.50
GM 3: 1-0 +$100
GM 4: 0-0
TOTAL W/L = 15-11 $+73.05
SERIES W/L = 15-0 $+350.55 (3 Pending)

JUNE 5th RESULTS:
(GM 2) BOS/BAL UNDER 8.5 $60.50/50
(GM 2) CLE/CWS UNDER 9.5 S74.50/50
(GM 2) MIN/OAK UNDER 7.5 $54.50/50
(GM 2) CIN/WSH OVER 8.5 $57/50
(GM 2) SF/PIT UNDER 8.5 $61/50

JUNE 6th PICKS:
(GM 3) BOS/BAL UNDER 9.5 $113/100
(GM 3) CIN/WSH OVER 8.5 $143/100
(GM 3) SF/PIT UNDER 7.5 $122/100
 
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Posted: #21
That BOS/BAL 9th inning was a tough one!  Been following along (missed day 1 though).  Let's get em tomorrow :)
 
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Posted: #22
Yes, that was a sick loss! Once the 8th inning hit I stopped looking at the score and that it was a win for sure! lol
 
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Posted: #23
As someone who just recently back-tested 12 years of some over unders.. I think you should go by more than just "this year" to determine your stadium qualifications.

The one which stands out to me, in particular, is Toronto which you have listed as an Under Stadium.. but while looking over the past 12 years, it clearly showed a large percentage of Overs. Being in the AL East, as well, would lead one to think that this is not a good Under Stadium.

Just my 2 cents..

I also agree with kirby.. umpires are a huge factor in dealing with totals, more than one might think.
I briefly looked into this once, and followed a thread by someone doing totals based on umpires.. but since I'm not a huge Totals guy, I never really got into it that much..


Cheers 
 
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Posted: #24
Thanks for the insight Kreatture.

My reasoning behind doing a season by season basis, is that I want to mix the Current Rosters into things.

Off my head I would say Toronto would be an over stadium as well, but surprisingly this season the Jays have consistently been putting up unders at home. Even with the one of the most explosive offenses in Big Leagues!

2 Unders in the Series vs. the Yankees already. Crazy stuff.

Anyways, I am prepared for losses, but have a feeling that I can still make a profit. Time will tell.... The joy of this system is the modifications to the Over/Unders that you can make as well.




 
 
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Posted: #25
LOOKING AHEAD:

Starting Monday:
Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland Indians (OVER)
Los Angelas Angels vs Oakland Athletics (UNDER)
Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers (OVER*) <---Mod?
San Francisco Giants vs Cincinatti Reds (OVER*) <---Mod?
Atlanta Braves vs Arizona D-Backs (OVER)
Houston Astros vs Colorado Rockies (UNDER)
St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angelas Dodgers (OVER)

The Rangers are playing a team that is proned to Unders in Seattle, so technically I should switch to Under.

The Reds are playing a middle of the road team in SF. So technically I should stick to the Over.

Starting Tuesday:
Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox (UNDER)
New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles (UNDER)
Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays (UNDER)
San Diego Padres vs New York Mets (UNDER*) <---Mod???
Florida Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies (UNDER*) <---Mod???
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals (UNDER*)<---Mod???
Chciago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers (OVER*) <---Mod???

The Mets are playing a team prone to the Under in Florida. So technically I should stick to the Under.

The Nats are playing a middle of the road team in the Pirates. So technically I should stick to the Under.

The Brew Crew are playing a middle of the road team in the Cubbies. So technically I should stick to the Over.

Anyone with any thoughts on these future series?

Thanks in advance!
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