Bankroll: $10,000
plays for tuesday dec 21
1. SMiss (+1.25) $200 to win $250
2. Dallas Mavericks (+1.40) $200 to win $280
3. OKC Thunder -6.5 (-1.10) $220 to win $200
4. Memphis Grizzlies -6 (-1.10) $220 to win $200
5. Dallas Stars (-1.30) $260 to win $200
OT/Shootouts included on all hockey selections..
no additions, each play will be from computer program, no human involvement.
consider each play (2%) of bankroll, recalculated daily...
Falcon
anyone that has been on this forum the last 3 months wouldn't believe a thing this guy writes. he hasn't kept his word once. the latest was i'm reworking the "program", be back the first of the year. Now he is back a week after dropping at least 4 threads because the picks were dropping like crazy. How could you possibly rework anything that fast? Do you EVER back test anything you do?
those that like to tail blindly..........be very careful
update for wednesday dec 22
seriously guys, you should all know that i was close to something with the long running computer program thread... Baseball did very well and actually the nba has been good also.. Problems arose with the NHL that i cannot explain. It came as a surprise to me and was the downfall of the project.
But the page turns and 2 revisions were made to the original program. These revisions will allow me to "get off" some games in which the situation does not bode well for us and will allow us to play a few favorites along the way. There is absolutely no reason why we should not play favorites as well. I never did like a totally one sided program.
Hopefully as this thread progresses, i cannot regain some trust and contribute here in 2011. I think i deserve the chance..
Beginning Bankroll on dec 21 2010: $10,000
Current Bankroll on dec 22 2010: $10,260
Computer Program Plays: 3-2 (+$260) revised edition
first off lets take a quick look at yesterday. the program went (4-1) (+3.60 units) playing every game in the nba yesterday. losing only on the Memphis Grizzlies and passing on the bucks/lakers game. The TOP play came thru with the OKC Thunder rolling the Bobcats in the 4th quarter.. Dallas was a nice winner that most of the general public happened to be on... The revision cost me a winner with GST but i can live with it.... The NHL didnt fare quite as well, going (4-3)(+0.30 units).... Losing on atl, col and anaheim. the revisions made kept me off anaheim... big favorites wash, clb and sj all won but could not be played due to excessive juice..
call that my daily ramble...
moving on to wednesdays card...
6. Vancouver (+1.25) $200 to win $250 (this is a play under both the old and new program). Program actually has this a coin flip, the (+1.25) payback makes it a play... would you flip a coin if you won $12.50 and only lost $10...
7. Nashville (+1.40) $200 to win $280... (this is actually a much stronger play than vancouver but ill go with a base $200 bet) and hope to split the two at worse...
take those 2 nhl plays with a grain of salt, as things havent worked out so well for us there as of late... the other 2 games, the program was solidly behind the favorite but due to the excessive juice being laid, both were made NO PLAYS...
8. Utah -6 (-1.10) $220 to win $200...(rated the strongest of our 4 plays for today, so this one gets recorded as TOP play today).. Not quite as strong as OKC yesterday but should be considered the TOP play today, for what we are playing...
9. Houston Rockets (+1.05) ML $200 to win $210... this is a solid program choice, much like the predators in the NHL.. houston would be a play under the old and new format...
as for the remainder of the nba.. here is what the program has to say..
Toronto -6: would be the slight choice but only very slightly. no way we would lay (-6) here... Program says toronto, so we cannot go detroit.. consider this a very easy PASS.
Chicago -3: would definately be a play at (-3) but the program has a filter for B2B situations and this one does qualify... we expect chicago to win but cannot play them, so we PASS here as well.
Atlanta -10: easily the choice here but i do not lay double digits in the nba, so we PASS here as well...
Boston -10: probably the strongest play on the board, along with the hornets but once again, the line is nearing double digits and we PASS...
OKC +1: the Thunder at (+ money) is a play tonight under the old format but the B2B filter is keeping us off them. The program anticipates another road win for the thunder but we have to PASS.
Hornets -8.5: very strong choice tonight, probably my favorite on the board but the big line keeps it from being a play (PASS again)..
Spurs -7: this was almost the 5th play tonight but once again, we choose not to lay the points, so PASS here as well..
there is just a brief little rundown for tonight.... as you can see, the nba was mostly favorites but i have a cutoff in at about 6.5pts...
Falcon
Oil. i understand that... i just didnt see staying with something that was not working, just for the fact of staying with it... like everyone else, im here to win and make money... i saw a drawdown from $2297 on dec 2, to $1264 at the end...
i didnt want to continue with a program that had that big of a drawdown... i wanted to revise it... i never intended to scrap the computer program or stop posting..
im still searching for my niche here and for how to best present this computer program.. i honestly think that i have something but i guess time will tell....
if anyone has a question about a game... please PM me, i can give you a breakdown of what my Program says about the game.
Falcon
I would actually consider doing the Program again... but with the stipulations... no deadlines to meet... playing the revised version, which allows for some favorites and reducing the wagers as drawdowns occur... something ill ponder over...
I think you should ! ..only if you intend to stick with it though..either way..good luck !
Falcon
Hectar, let me splain this to you...
the $1000 bankroll was for the project, the 10k bankroll is my real bankroll and i reduced it down to that for this thread.. its no cushion.. if i did the project again, i would do it with 1k...
did i splain it well enough for you hectar... say what you want about baseball, it went 75-75 and was the basis for the entire computer program....
wednesdays plays are posted above..
Falcon
thanks fellas...
scotth69: the program is basically set, just like it has been since sept 5.. with the exception of a couple of filters that will take me off some games... we were finding ourselves on the short end of some bad setups.. we needed a way to stop that from happening.
lets see how it goes... i want you guys to know that i do have a computer program that i very much believe in.. it has been profitable... i want it to get more profitable... i am having trouble on deciding how best to present the plays to the forum...
Falcon
thanks guys, we will see how it goes... i think im going to post the nba plays, in the nba room here.. probably where they should be anyway... ill still post in here also... ive back over the entire season and the program has done pretty well, especially ATS... with the revisions now in place, im interested to see how it can really do... im still scratching my head over the NHL, i absolutely didnt see that coming...
Falcon
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