let me start out this, with a little background.
i am a computer programmer, have been for the last 15yrs or so... last fall during the economic downturn, myself like many others, had their job put in jeopardy. i survived but it taught me that i couldnt rely on a company for my livelihood and i was sick of the "9 to 5" grind anyway.
i had always been interested in the markets (stock market and commodity markets) so i began to work on a program to mechanically trade the markets. it turns out that i came up with something that has worked extremely well, in trading the SP 500 Index... it took months but i now have it running automatically. it has generated 44 trades since about May 1, with a profit of over 25k for that time period....
once i had this finished and running, i began to think of ways to beat the sports betting market, as i had always been interested in sports but for me its much more than that, its being able to beat the game, that is what interests me. i knew that i was not going going to be a capper (didnt have the desire or hours to put into that), i was not going to be a line chaser...... now im not saying those ways cant win, im saying they are not for me.
in my quest, i came upon this site and have found much useful information... its much the same info that you probably use... its how you use it that is important and the weight that you put on the individual stats and categories....
i thought it would be fun to post the plays the program produced and maybe talk a little with a few other bettors...
what i have learned is that.....
1. i cant lay the heavy juice... in the long run, this will beat me.
2. i cant bet every game on the board...
3. i need to flat bet, only raising bets, as the bankroll increases.
i really was not doing these things, when i started this, a couple of months ago.
i know this didnt answer your question but i wont go into laying out the program... mainly for a couple of reasons..
1. i have no idea if this will work in the long run but i do know that if i can only hit 56% or so, against a (-1.10 line or better), that i can make alot of money in this business... my goal is 57.4% but that is just a goal, i have no idea if those results will play out.... the sports betting market, is much more random than the sp 500 market and that surprised me...
2. why i would i want to lay out, exactly what im doing.... if i did that, someone could run with the plays if they were a success and sell them or whatever and that would not benefit me, in the least.. im speaking hypothetically now, so do not be offended...
a few other things that i can tell you.... college sports will be far weaker than professional sports (especially totals), in fact i am thinking of dropping college totals altogether... the turn over rate for players is too great (from season to season) and the level of competition played is not equal (not even close).... it is much more equal in professional sports...
also i am a HUGE believer in flat betting... i do not want to live or die on any one game.... i could go much more into this but i wont. only a true professional (and im not) could know his exact edge in a game but if they did really know this, why would they bet the lesser games.. why not just bet the higher games for more money. this topic could be aruged endlessly but not by me...
sorry for rambling but let me end by saying... i will keep posting the plays daily (in this thread) WIN or LOSE.... i would not suggest following now but keep an eye on it and if you do follow, flat bet (start small and if bankroll grows, then increase bet amount).....
phatpherriola: ask me the question again, when 100 plays are posted.... we will see how it looks then..
back for wednesdays plays soon.
GW