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What do u guys think about this???

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Posted: #1

do u guys think this system would work... if the home team wins the first game of there series chase them for the next 2... i think it could work cause if the team wins the first game they should be able to win another 1 especially at home

let me kno what u guys think and any filters that would make this work

 
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Posted: #2
Similar to this is the simple home chase system.
Basically, it just says that if the home team loses the first game, to chase the next two game.

The methodology behind this is that the home team should win at least one of the three games. This system has been proven to work quite well.

As for your idea, what you're saying is kinda the opposite. Instead of expecting them to win 1 game, you're expecting them to win at least 2 out of 3 games. My hypothesis would be that the juice laid on the home team would make this not profitable, and possibly even a good system to fade.

However, having said that, that assumption is just that, an assumption. You should consider back testing this for a couple years and let us know. I would definitely be interested in being proven wrong.

Best of luck :)
 
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Posted: #3

yeah i get what ur saying but if they lose the first game theres a good chance they could get sweeped and theres alot of sweepes a season so with the system ur saying wouldnt there be alot of loses?

with the system i stated, the team already showed that they can beat the other team and theres a good chance there go forward and win the series cause they only need to win 1 more game to win the series so wouldnt they try harder to win another game to win the series?

Also theres alot of times when a team wins a game and is still an underdog the next game

 
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Posted: #4
also im not expecting them to win 2 out of 3 im expecting them to win 1 out of 2 after they already beated the team
 
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Posted: #5
A huge piece of my system is based on this idea, but you need to explore it further.  You will definitely lose money if you try this with all home teams, and you'll likely lose even if you bet the top home teams if you don't factor in their opponents or think about a mm strategy.  I see many ideas like this get posted in this and other forums.  The seed is there, but you gotta water it if you want it to grow.  Simple is good, but you need to think things through before you can get anywhere and put a little more work into your idea.

Btw..here's a little data for you to get you started and to save you a month of blindly testing this idea.  These are the types of things you should find out or think about if you're gonna try something like this:

This season, in 3 game series, the home team has won at least 2 out of 3 games 58.9% of the time and home teams have swept 15.7% of the time.  If you do a 2 game chase to win 1 unit, you need to win 77% of your chases to break even if the average odds are -110.  Since you're talking about home teams, and home teams that already beat a team, you're more realistically looking at average odds in the -150 range.  To break even in that situation, you need to win 84% of your chases.  58.9% is a long way from both of those numbers so you have some work to do if you want to make this work.  Hopefully I've pointed you in the right direction if you really want to explore this more.

Leprechaun
 
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Posted: #6
GA, I understand what you mean about them winning 1 out of 2 games, but it's more accurate to say 2 out of 3 games, because your system requires them to win the first game, and then to win another game. In other words, in no 3 game series can you win the chase without winning 2 out of 3 games.

If Leps numbers are correct about " the home team has won at least 2 out of 3 games 58.9% of the time", then as he said, its far from profiting. In fact, I'd look into the fade.

I strongly suggest you back track this both for and against, and see how it turns out.
 
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Posted: #7
thanks for the advice tomspeople and leprechaun... tomspeople is there any filters u use for ur system and leprechaun do u think tomspeople's system would work good?

thanks for the info and ill def be looking more into this
 
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Posted: #8

hey tom can u tell me the record 4 ur system?

 

 
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Posted: #9
ok so i backtested both systems for this year and so far the system where u chase after the home team loses its first game is 143-40... and the system where u chase after the home team wins its first game is 208-42... i didnt use any filters for either system and when a team had 4 home games in a row i only looked at the first 3 
 
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Posted: #10
so do u guys think this would work?
 
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Posted: #11
Home team chase with a money line -145 or higher is 72-1 for the season.

The exception is Texas vs. Baltimore, which was a fluke. Otherwise a perfect record.

 Your not going to do any better than those results !!!
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by elkennedy777:

Home team chase with a money line -145 or higher is 72-1 for the season.

The exception is Texas vs. Baltimore, which was a fluke. Otherwise a perfect record.

 Your not going to do any better than those results !!!


May 11th-13th
ST. LOUIS  Game 1  -235     LOSS
ST. LOUIS  Game 2  -178     LOSS
ST. LOUIS  Game 3  -321     LOSS

June 11th-13th
LA DODGERS  Game 1  -168     LOSS
LA DODGERS  Game 2  -148     LOSS
LA DODGERS  Game 3  +102     LOSS

July 8th-11th
TEXAS  Game 1  -249     LOSS
TEXAS  Game 2  -198     LOSS
TEXAS  Game 3  -389     LOSS
TEXAS  Game 4  -235     LOSS


There's 3 losses with your -145 rule just by looking at the top home teams at the time. I highly doubt that the rest of the League has gone undefeated as well..
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by Tomspeople:

GA, I understand what you mean about them winning 1 out of 2 games, but it's more accurate to say 2 out of 3 games, because your system requires them to win the first game, and then to win another game. In other words, in no 3 game series can you win the chase without winning 2 out of 3 games.

If Leps numbers are correct about " the home team has won at least 2 out of 3 games 58.9% of the time", then as he said, its far from profiting. In fact, I'd look into the fade.

I strongly suggest you back track this both for and against, and see how it turns out.


Hey Tom, how are ya? Good to see you're still around! Are you playing your HFOUDL System this Season? If so, how's it going this year.
I didn't have the time to keep track of it among the others I'm using, but it was an interesting little System.

Hope all is well.

Cheers 
 
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Posted: #14
This criteria is based on -145 or higher for the SERIES !!!

Not what the first game is.

Home team series chase !!
 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by elkennedy777:

This criteria is based on -145 or higher for the SERIES !!!

Not what the first game is.

Home team series chase !!


OK, you should have stated that. That's pretty good then, altho it doesn't seem right..

So you just look at the SERIES price, and then play each game individually??

I'd like to know what the odds were for the St. Louis Series. There's no way that would be less than -145 against Houston, who was one of the worst teams (if not the worst) in the League at that time, and the juice was monster high for each game.
 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by elkennedy777:

Home team chase with a money line -145 or higher is 72-1 for the season.

The exception is Texas vs. Baltimore, which was a fluke. Otherwise a perfect record.

 Your not going to do any better than those results !!!


Glad k-man got to this before me.  Not only is this stat dead wrong (St. Louis series in May AND SF series in May...which had a game right at -145 depending on your book) but it is completely useless.  How in the F*&! are you supposed to know what the line for each game in a series is going to be before the games are played???  Also, the Texas series alone would wipe out all your winnings and then some.

Leprechaun
 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by GamblrzAnonyms:

ok so i backtested both systems for this year and so far the system where u chase after the home team loses its first game is 143-40... and the system where u chase after the home team wins its first game is 208-42... i didnt use any filters for either system and when a team had 4 home games in a row i only looked at the first 3 


GA-

Nice work backtesting...always a good place to start.  With these numbers, however, you're still looking at a losing system.  If every loss costs you about 4 units on average (and it's probably closer to 5) then neither one of these methods would do you much good without applying some sort of filter.  This is a good angle...as I said, my system is somewhat based on this very idea.  Keep working at it!

Leprechaun
 
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Posted: #18

Quote Originally Posted by GamblrzAnonyms:

ok so i backtested both systems for this year and so far the system where u chase after the home team loses its first game is 143-40... and the system where u chase after the home team wins its first game is 208-42... i didnt use any filters for either system and when a team had 4 home games in a row i only looked at the first 3 

143-40?  So you are saying wait for the home team to lose the first game and chase for a win the next 2 games right?  You say there are 40 losses which would mean the home team lost all 3 games, so there have been 40 road teams with sweeps this year.  Highly unlikey!!!!  The NYY only have 1, ATL has 1, PHI has 1... Can't be 40...

 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by Leprechaun:



Glad k-man got to this before me.  Not only is this stat dead wrong (St. Louis series in May AND SF series in May...which had a game right at -145 depending on your book) but it is completely useless.  How in the F*&! are you supposed to know what the line for each game in a series is going to be before the games are played???  Also, the Texas series alone would wipe out all your winnings and then some.

Leprechaun


Lep, elk then said in his last post that it was based on the Series Price, not the Opening Game line. It was horribly worded, I know, but at least he made it clear after.

Still, there's no way St. Louis would not have been a loss. The Series Price for that one would have had to be at least -180 with Carpenter and Wainwright both scheduled to throw in that series vs. the worst team in the NL at the time. Would even think it would be over -200.
The San Francisco loss was probably under -145 (Series Price), since it was against the Dodgers.
 
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Posted: #20
Hmmmmm...I interpreted that he meant all three games were at -145 or more.  Not sure what the series price has to do with this idea unless he means using it as a filter.  However, I can tell you that road teams have won at least 2 of 3 games in a 3 game series 145 times this season (not counting this weekend).  You're telling me in only ONE of those cases was the home team favored to win the series with a line of -145 or higher?????  I don't have access to that data, but it is highly unlikely.  I'll tell you a case right now where this happened without even looking it up...Seattle at Yankees back at the end of June.  Yanks only won one game in that series. Also..that SF series loss was against the Padres before anybody knew they would be good this season, so almost no doubt the line was higher than -145.  This stat is absolute BS either way.

Leprechaun
 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by HECTAR:

143-40?  So you are saying wait for the home team to lose the first game and chase for a win the next 2 games right?  You say there are 40 losses which would mean the home team lost all 3 games, so there have been 40 road teams with sweeps this year.  Highly unlikey!!!!  The NYY only have 1, ATL has 1, PHI has 1... Can't be 40...



Wow...does anybody, I mean ANYBODY think or look anything up before they post??  Hectar...you are exactly wrong.  Not counting this weekend, there have been 38 road sweeps in 3 game series this season and 3 road sweeps in 4 game series for a total of 41.

Leprechaun
 
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by Leprechaun:

Hmmmmm...I interpreted that he meant all three games were at -145 or more.  Not sure what the series price has to do with this idea unless he means using it as a filter.  However, I can tell you that road teams have won at least 2 of 3 games in a 3 game series 145 times this season (not counting this weekend).  You're telling me in only ONE of those cases was the home team favored to win the series with a line of -145 or higher?????  I don't have access to that data, but it is highly unlikely.  I'll tell you a case right now where this happened without even looking it up...Seattle at Yankees back at the end of June.  Yanks only won one game in that series. Also..that SF series loss was against the Padres before anybody knew they would be good this season, so almost no doubt the line was higher than -145.  This stat is absolute BS either way.

Leprechaun


I agree that the stat of 72-1 doesn't seem right.. but don't understand your point on the Yankees/Seattle series.. I think someone is terribly confused here, LoL, it might even be me..

Elk says to Chase a Home Team when the Series Price for the home team to win the series is -145 or higher. But he doesn't bet on the Series Win, he bets on each game individually chasing for just 1 win. So the home team only needs to win 1 game to clear the chase, not 2.

The Giants loss I was referring to was the one against the Dodgers, but yes they were also swept by the Padres before that. Man, the Giants have burned everyone a few times this year!
 
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Posted: #23
I see now what he is saying...it was not clear.  I thought he was talking about GA's idea to chase AFTER the first game in the series since that is what this thread was discussing.  That's why I brought up the Yankees series.  If it's just for 1 of any of the games, 72-1 seems much more possible.  The SF loss is a maybe but that Cards loss had to be another.  Still the one loss on Texas would wipe you out depending on your mm strategy...especially if you went for all 4 games.  Two losses in a year and you're toast.  Anyway...it IS a good idea for a filter and it is a system that may work.  Not sure where to find past data on series lines but there must be some place out there.

Leprechaun
 
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Posted: #24
You only chase the first 3.

How do you figure if you lose 1 out of 72 your toast.


 
 
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Posted: #25

Quote Originally Posted by elkennedy777:

You only chase the first 3.

How do you figure if you lose 1 out of 72 your toast.


because the texas game was -200 to -300 each game so u would of lost a ton of money

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