Posted:
#1
Four plays I'm looking at for tomorrow:
He's played pretty decently here and this is an American tournament. I think RBA's pretty gassed at this point and carrying a bit of an injury that he's going to want to get taken care of before the Open. For me, Fritz is too inconsistent to take on the moneyline at anything over a half unit, but he does have the big serve to make it a 7-6 6-4 type of game. His last match against Lorenzi ended 7-6 7-6 for context. You can get +1.5 sets at +100 odds too if you feel he can take this to three or win it.
Johnson -113
This could be Johnson's tournament to win as the lone American favorite (I don't think Fritz will get to the final.) Also, fading Edmund right now is a good play. The kid doesn't make many finals and I would feel comfortable taking Johnson at these low odds.
Peng +130
I think Peng has a slight knee injury, but she looked really effective against Lucic-Baroni, so who knows how bad it is. I know Radwanska is defending points, but I think Peng has a good shot here. She and Radwanska are both basically pushers who defend every shot, but Peng is way more aggressive on her forehands and her serve is miles better. Radwanska has one of the weakest WTA serves I've seen, so at least Peng can win some free points with aces.
Mertens -142
Just fading Zhang. She's looked good, but she really melted at key moments against Linette today and was a few key shots away from a choke. If you look at the players Mertens has beaten to get here, it's pretty impressive. She fought back against Bertens and was tough against Kasatkina. She has the power to match Zhang and I feel more confident in betting on her not to choke this than I would betting Zhang.
Other leans, I would probably say Coric beats Struff and it's probably a good idea to fade Dzumhur at some point. I'm not entirely sold on taking Chung at -150 because I'm not sure how into this tournament he is, but Dzumhur is lucky to have made it this far and he looks like he's on his last legs, so he's probably not making the final.
Normally, I would go Gavrilova over Flipkens, but Flipkens looked unstoppable today against Bogdan. Also leaning over 21.5 games on Pavs-Cibulkova. Thinking Cibulkova does her usual get down a set before kicking it into gear and then Pavs will fade away because she's out of shape.
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