ATP 500 Feb

Sinner to Win Rotterdam +250 3u

Kecmanovic 2-0 -125 1u

De Minaur -2.5 -107 1u

Felix Auger-Aliassime ML & O21.5 @ -110

As long as Cressy doesn’t hit 10+ DF over a set, should be good here. 

I can't parlay a side and total for the same match. What book is this? 

@jvarghese

 Betano. They do some weird stuff on there. I think their Sinner line they meant to do +150 because everyone opened at 2.50 but they had +250. I see some unusually nice lines there and I think its in error once in a while. But their general juice is -113.

They have Duration in time for sets. Also the combo of ML and O/U. Bunch of other props. Advance spreads on set bets. You can also buy and sell a lot of games. Like every option is there. O/U from 16.5 games to 30.5. Then string together a short parlay.

Message me if you want to open an account so we can do the referral. May as well get the free $$$. 

Also a $500 100% deposit match for newbies. That’s what got me to sign up. Plus you get the referral bonus on top.

Betano feels like this era's 5Dimes but without the Tony drama...I have truly enjoyed this book since giving them a try.

Kecmanovic 2-0 -125 1u 

Felix Auger-Aliassime ML & O21.5 @ -110 

Evans +153

Thompson has a decent record supporting him right now. Most of wins are off lower ranked guys though with the exception being Nadal who after losing went back on the D.L.

Neither Thompson or Evans have a good track record at this time of year. Evans because he rarely participates in the early Southern US tournaments. Thompson is 1-5 between Miami and Delray over the last 4 years.

Evans being a scrappy player who likes to mix things up and improvise playing against Thompson whose more of a power player, I think these conditions favour Evans. Thompson and Evans have met a few times and Thompson hasn’t won a set off Evans. My only reserve is Evans hasn’t played much this year. 

Worth a tickle imo.

Anyone have any insight on the conditions at Rotterdam? Resurface timeline or specs? What balls they’re using?

I’ve noticed a lot of shanks being pulled. Initially I thought it was the courts were playing slow and players were getting ahead of the ball but watching Korda winning rallies against De Minaur at the baseline comfortably looks more like the ball is getting up higher. De Minaur shanked a good one and you could see on the replay, his racket was dipped down too low and he had to swing upwards to get the ball. This isn’t because he’s stupid, it’s because the ball popped up. As I type this, Korda just did the same, the ball ricocheting off the top of his frame. It’s maybe a bit of both (slower and higher) if the surfacing is fresher than usual and at a higher grit rate.

Anyone have any input?

Leaning Struff & O21.5 @ +220

@AverageAllstar

 I have Struff O22.5 at  115.   That's a great number.   Good luck 

@MJR0309

 It’s parlayed, that’s why the payouts high.

@AverageAllstar

 Oh gotcha.    That I might do.    Just tried it but can't parlay it.   Oh well.    

De Minaur -2.5 -107 1u

Not gonna pull the trigger on Struff here. Maybe the O22.5.

@AverageAllstar

 Good eye, hadn’t noticed anything unusual yesterday.  Was not able to watch De Minaur match but will be logging on to watch Hurkacz and Rublev.  Something to consider moving forward.

What type of style would this benefit, if any?  Players that aren’t as quick to adapt could be at a disadvantage. (Obvious I know). 

Glad I’m seeing this being discussed.  Good stuff my man!

@AverageAllstar

 DeMinaur is gold. 

@Maineiac33

 Anyone tall.

After I mentioned it I took a look at the field. This probably isn’t a new thing at Rotterdam since no one is under 6ft here. Like I said,  the ball got up and over on De Minaur and even he’s 6ft even.

It’ll just help guys 6’4”+ to not have to get down and if the courts are slower, it’ll give extra time. So players like Di Minaur lose their court coverage advantage because everyone can get to the balls a little easier.

That’s only if what I’m seeing from a broadcast is actually happening! That’s why I’m curious if anyone’s heard anything. One thing’s for sure, guys are shanking wildly and getting out in front. So whoever you think that favours give them that edge

@AverageAllstar

 Good stuff, thank you Sir.  I'm thinking this offers an edge in pressure situations to calmer, more experienced players.  Will crush the "head cases" more significantly.  For example, Rune loses value etc etc.

Nice hit on de Minaur 

@AverageAllstar

 Yeah man, Rublev is spraying the ball and complaining about the bounce as well.  Pretty sure he's losing the baseline battle to Berg so far.  He can be "emotional", something to take into consideration moving forward as I see him still winning in this match. 

Evans +153  Bleh.

Struff goes flying over. This was the play in this match. 

@jvarghese

 I chickened out. 
I’m Daniel Negreanu on my plays right now. I made like 6 predictions yesterday, made two plays and chopped. Woulda been 5-1. Today the same. Make the call on Struff/Over and played evans.

If sinner comes through, I’m still up $700. 

Only other play sticking out right now for me is Tabilo to win his quarter. If he’s not injured, he should take that bracket.

Agree on Tabilo.

Post them winners this week. 

Raonic/Bublik Score after 6 games 3-3

FAA/Rublev O20.5 Games

Parlay @ +127

Lots of big serving, shouldn’t see a lot of break point opportunities and all these guys can serve their way out.

0 broken serves between all these guys after their first round matches.

FAA a live dog here.

I wish I can make these bets. What book do you bet at?  Sorry if you answered this earlier.